The absence of Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas coupled with the return to a happy hunting ground means Rory McIlroy is back at the top of the market for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, and it will be fascinating to see how the world number eight (8!) goes over the fortnight to come.
McIlroy, who won here courtesy of a dazzling putting display in 2018, either means business or has an old calendar hanging on the wall or something else altogether, as in turning up at Bay Hill he effectively breaks one of his scheduling rules: don't play four in a row. Next week, at the PLAYERS, that's exactly what he'll do for just the third time since 2015, both in the interim having ended with obligations, whether collecting his cheque at the Omega European Masters, or hosting the Irish Open. Not since 2014 has he played a world-class tournament at the end of a four-week stretch.
For all the success he's enjoyed at Bay Hill down the years, however close it is to home, it's a little surprising that he's here and perhaps we'll find out the logic when he fulfils his media obligations. It's tempting to think that he's confident of contending, which he should be, at a course where his form figures read 11-27-4-1-6-5. Some will wonder whether he feels he's still short of where he needs to be ahead of the PLAYERS, which he's in effect defending after the 2020 edition was aborted.
Having put him up in Phoenix, at Riviera and again last week in the WGC Workday Championship, it would be fair to say that whatever the reasoning, I expect McIlroy to go well. Throughout this run there have been positives, and the specifics of his performance last week – second in birdies, strong through the bag, welcome putter switch, improvement for return to Florida – are hugely encouraging. As I type, the last of the 9/1 is beginning to disappear, and had it been available across the board he would have gone in as a win-only selection one more time.
But it is going, and I couldn't recommend taking any shorter, so I'll turn to TOMMY FLEETWOOD to win his first PGA Tour event at a price we seldom see, that 40/1 well worth taking at a course he too appears to adore.
Fleetwood was 10th on his debut here in 2017, right at the beginning of his climb towards the world's top 10, and there was plenty to like about 26th the following year and third place in 2019. On the latter occasion, he put on a ball-striking clinic to lead at halfway, suffered a nightmare third round in tough conditions, then rallied for third place behind Ryder Cup partner Francesco Molinari.
One bad round has been the way of things over these last few months, too, particularly throughout a frustrating Middle East run on the European Tour. As you'd expect, he entered events in Dubai (x3) and Abu Dhabi (x1) as one of the favourites and was bang in the mix in all four, only to shoot over-par third rounds in three of them, and labour to a final-round 73 in the fourth.
Perhaps that tells us something isn't quite right, and he did begin 2021 working with TaylorMade to get his bag where he wants it having become a full-time staffer. Evidence for this theory was provided last week when he finished 44th in the WGC Workday Championship, the same event – albeit at a very different location – where he was runner-up before his Bay Hill debut four years ago.
It took a while after he left school for Zalatoris to really blossom, but he's done so over the last year to dominate on the Korn Ferry Tour, place in the US Open, earn himself a PGA Tour card in double-quick time and produce quality golf, week after week, as a rookie on the circuit.
So rapid has been his ascent that, at 47 in the world, Zalatoris is on the verge of securing a Masters invite to add to last week's WGC debut, where he finished 22nd despite a double-bogey at the last, and a stone-cold putter throughout the tournament.
Although a shade disappointing under ideal conditions last week, Poulter produced four under-par rounds in Puerto Rico to take his run to nine in total and build on 18th place in Saudi Arabia, which is about as far down the leaderboard as he felt he could possibly have finished given the way he struck the ball at times.
Doubtless prone to getting carried away, there was nevertheless a feeling that the Ryder Cup stalwart has his game in the required shape to make a push for a place on Padraig Harrington's team, which won't be easily earned. It's hard to imagine him featuring if he is this far down the world rankings, and the events to come in Florida are probably his best chance to all but take care of business in just four rounds.
Here at Bay Hill, close to his long-time Florida base, Poulter has made every cut since 2011, including when finishing close behind Tiger Woods a year later. He's been hanging around on the fringes of contention almost every year since and all this without lighting up the greens in the way he did back in 2008. Instead, his success has been built on some really strong approach play figures and Bay Hill, which is in essence a positional golf course, definitely suits him.
"I can compete against I think against the big boys around the place," he said a couple of years ago and having threatened to win this, the Honda and the PLAYERS, I can't bring myself to ditch him after one modest week.
Like both Fleetwood and Poulter, he's another member of the successful Paris team with a bit of work to do to if he's to play at Whistling Straits, and 12th place at Riviera last time was a really encouraging step forward on his previous three starts in 2021.
Noren has in fact been playing some sneakily good golf for a while, but the missing ingredient has been his ball-striking, and without improvements in that department I tend to be a little sceptical. However, we definitely saw them at Riviera, where he produced his best strokes-gained ball-striking stats since January 2020, and when his iron play is firing he can be deadly at the right course.
Although yet to show it here, Noren's form ties in nicely with Fleetwood, Hatton, Molinari and McIlroy. The latter trio have all won at Wentworth, where dealing with a swirling breeze is vital, and like Fleetwood he's a winner at Sun City and Le Golf National, the latter where Molinari made history in the Ryder Cup.
Victories in these high-profile events on the European Tour confirm Noren is a world-class player at his best and this notoriously hard worker might just be able to build on a big step forward in California.
Returning to Florida, where he's based, is a positive as he's played well in the Honda (third) and the PLAYERS (10th and 17th). Bay Hill should be no less suitable and he's well worth chancing at three-figure prices.
At just slightly shorter, CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT sneaks in under the radar and could be the one to make it back-to-back South African winners if Grace's victory does give them all a little bump.
Bezuidenhout is up to 37th in the world now after back-to-back wins of his own doing late in 2020, and the next task is to carry his form over to the PGA Tour, where so far he's shown promise without threatening to contend.
This week, he gets his first crack at a course he's seen before, and not only that his share of 18th in the 2020 edition is his best result yet. Clearly, he took to Bay Hill despite revealing that he did feel nervous on what was his debut in the USA, having played nicely in the World Golf Championship down in Mexico a week earlier.
It was only a slow start which kept him out of things in Puerto Rico, where he shot 69-67 over the weekend and ranked first in ball-striking, having been long and straight off the tee and hit 75 percent of greens in regulation.
All in all, while his finishing positions don't scream winner-in-waiting I don't think he's all that far away from putting four rounds together, and having been born and raised in North Carolina there's probably some potential for improvement now he's back on the east coast.
Gordon won a couple of big amateur titles in Florida during his time studying in Tennessee, and says he's learned plenty about managing his game thanks to the help of Webb Simpson back home in Charlotte.
Hopefully, he's wise enough to choose his moments here at Bay Hill, where he's more than capable of taking care of the par-fives and hauling himself into contention again as a result.
Posted at 2020 GMT on 01/03/21
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