The PGA Championship came to life for about an hour on Saturday, and then world number one Scottie Scheffler turned it from something competitive into something seemingly processional. Eagle, birdie, par, birdie, birdie, the Green Mile tagged onto the end of the scoring stretch. Three shots ahead and 2/9 to win his third major championship.
There is risk in anointing anyone with 18 holes still to play and three shots is not a particularly wide margin in this sport. But it's surely more than enough. Scheffler is 5/1 to win by five or more. When you consider that only Alex Noren, JT Poston and Davis Riley are closer to him than that, but for the fact that he has a job to do, and that the job involves avoiding big mistakes, the price would seem generous.
The without Scheffler market is highly competitive and if Noren stalls from the final group, which seems likely given that he's played seven competitive rounds all year, then there are any number of winners. Jon Rahm is the right favourite but it'll probably help both members of the penultimate group to know that they're not realistic winners unless Scheffler falls, and Poston would get my vote at 13/2.
At almost 5/1 the treble, this trio provide value and interest before the contenders take to the course later on, among whom KEEGAN BRADLEY looks the pick.
He's playing with Vegas and those concerns about the latter's ability to go again following a disappointing third round are genuine.
Bradley continues to operate at a very high level, good enough to become a player rather than captain at the Ryder Cup, and plenty of Europeans will be keen to see him end the week strongly and gather more points.
The way he's struck the ball so far makes that seem entirely possible. He's second in strokes-gained tee-to-green and a decent day with the putter should be enough against a player who struggles in that department too.
Poston is preferred to Riley for the double, the latter clearly back in form and a player I've followed since March, but prone to a big number. Poston, with plenty of support behind him, can underline how far he's come with his first major top 10.
A final note on Scheffler. It's highly likely he's the one heading to the 18th hole to finish off a convincing win and that has to be considered, but Sky Bet's 5/2 on a bogey or worse by the winner at the 72nd hole is interesting.
Not only is the 18th a very tough hole, averaging 4.40 and ranking first in difficulty, but it's also one with a creek to the left that makes the bail-out right so natural if all you have to do is avoid disaster, in turn making five the likely score.
Perhaps Scheffler will be so far clear that he can simply step up and thrash one down the middle, but I'd be betting more like 7/4 the winner makes bogey or worse.
Posted at 0915 BST on 18/05/25
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