As the European Tour has become increasingly dependent on the Middle East to form the bookends of its calendar, we've grown used to a collection of familiar courses, how they tend to play, and where best we might look for clues. Presented in a spider diagram, form across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Oman, Qatar and now Saudi Arabia would reveal all the ties that for many of us are ingrained. Last year underlined one of the strongest, between Abu Dhabi and the DP World Tour Championship, as Lee Westwood and Matt Fitzpatrick fought out the finish to both events.
Here at the Dubai Desert Classic, that line to the DP World Tour Championship, held nearby, is strong, and shooting off in another direction is a dotted one to Doha GC, former home of the Qatar Masters. Further afield, there's a clear connection with the Portugal Masters, held at another low-scoring, resort-style course where good weather is all but guaranteed. Open up enough tabs on your browser and somewhere buried within the leaderboards in front of you could well be the winner.
Then 2020 happened, or rather 2019 did, because in golf if you can't blame 2020 for something, you probably can blame Bryson DeChambeau. Before he became the Muscleman of Modesto, back when he was a plain old scientist, DeChambeau won the Dubai Desert Classic in a score of 24-under-par, a tournament record. A year earlier, the cut here fell at five-under. It's a fine line that tournament organisers tread, but those here at the Emirates Golf Club - where the European Tour's relationship with the Middle East began - evidently didn't much like their pride and joy being made to look an insufficient test.
It didn't take long for it to become clear that a very different beast awaited in 2020 - and I'm not referring to a bemuscled Bryson. The Majlis Course which awaited the defending champion and his rivals was totally different to that which they'd left behind 12 months earlier. Rough had been allowed to grow and strong wind also played a key part, particularly on Thursday and Sunday. The biggest change, however, came in the form of greens that were more inclined to repel than to receive a golf ball. At a course where angled fairways ensure plenty of approaches are played from the rough, things became extremely difficult.
"I was in the middle of the fairway every time, hitting greens and giving myself loads of chances – that’s what you can do around that course. It suits my eye nicely and I know the course really well from doing practice and prep there for many years."
Should he do the same this week, at a course where he's played a lot of golf outside of competition, his game is where it needs to be to go on and contend, knowing that victory here could propel him to the Ryder Cup as it did for Stephen Gallacher in 2014, and Willett, via Augusta, after that.
As you'd expect, the market has reacted strongly to events of last week, players who disappointed drifting - Justin Rose just a hair to 40/1, Martin Kaymer to 50s, Sami Valimaki to 80s, and so on - while those who impressed in some way have been trimmed. We can see this right at the front, where Hatton, Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick were almost identical odds but have now been re-ranked on the basis of one tournament.
History suggests we should be a little cautious when it comes to Abu Dhabi as a guide to the Dubai Desert Classic, though. Among the last nine Dubai winners who had played Abu Dhabi, three had missed the cut, while Bezuidenhout and Willett had finished 54th and 59th respectively. Only McIlroy, who went 2-1, has translated a big finish in week one to a win in week two, and the courses are about as different as it gets when we're talking modern, desert designs.
I would argue that SHANE LOWRY might be better suited to this one despite having won in Abu Dhabi and he's taken to leave behind his missed cut last week, which was in fact his fifth in just seven visits to the course.
Lowry won the 2019 edition of that event because, well, golf is golf, and he happened to have a fabulous week around and on the greens. Five missed cuts in seven though represent the most significant evidence and last year's was soon left behind as he finished 11th here, having been 12th in 2019.
Those two performances came after a five-year absence, his early efforts here having been modest, but Lowry right now appears to really enjoy the challenge at Emirates GC - a fact underline by ranking third and 10th for strokes-gained approach across these two visits.
With his iron play sharp enough last week as he narrowly failed to make the weekend, and 10 birdies suggesting his strong form in practice might not be far away in competition, Lowry looks to be a prime candidate to complete that quick turnaround in results we've seen from so many here.
Anyone who has listened to him or read interviews will know that Lowry has a massive, Ryder Cup-shaped goal this year, and he worked hard in the off-season with it firmly in mind. A missed cut in Abu Dhabi won't set him back - especially as he's won a World Golf Championship on the back of a missed cut - and he's another former Portugal Masters champion who has it within him to underline ties between the two events.
Laurie Canter was runner-up in Portugal during a fabulous 2020 campaign which ended with fifth place in the DP World Tour Championship, and he's drifted to a tempting price despite a fast start which was undermined by a cold putter and some scrappy approach play. It's worth noting that poor strokes-gained approach figures have been anomalies he's quickly recovered from and I think he'll take to this place on debut.
We know already that Callum Shinkwin can score here because he was fifth at halfway in 2019, when his effort petered out following a busy run in qualifying tournaments. Fast forward two years and this big talent is now a European Tour winner capable of taking the next step up the ladder, his performances since that breakthrough in Cyprus offering plenty of encouragement.
He's arguably the pick of the outsiders along with Takumi Kanaya, Minwoo Lee and Rasmus Hojgaard, three of the most promising players in the field. Lee hit it well last week and is one to keep an eye on with Saudi Arabia in mind, while Hojgaard's greens-in-regulation numbers (ranked first) were back at summer levels, when he won at the Belfry and contended everywhere for a month or so. Kanaya, meanwhile, shot 70-67 on the PGA Tour a fortnight ago and won the prestigious Dunlop Phoenix on just his fourth start as a pro, following a fine amateur career.
On balance though this is probably too much, too soon for Kanaya, and Hojgaard's desert form offers only limited promise, so I'm going to go back to MARTIN KAYMER for one more try in an event which has been dominated by the big names when the weather has played fair.
Checking back on last year's record, I actually only put the German up once post-lockdown, when he finished third and should've won at the Belfry, so I may be making unnecessary excuses in keeping the faith after going in again for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
Drawn in the afternoon, which wasn't as bad as it looked but still made for a difficult start, Kaymer never got anything going and laboured to a missed cut at a course where he's a three-time champion. It's not difficult to see why he's been pushed out to 40/1 generally, 45/1 with eight places and 50/1 with six on the back of that return to action.
But he'll take it in his stride, and wrote on Instagram that he 'used my unexpected spare time over the weekend very well and will be ready next Thursday', and despite an absence of silverware he is just as effective in the Dubai Desert Classic, where he has four top-four finishes from earlier in his career but has finished inside the top 25 in each of his last four, too.
Leading the field in greens hit twice in the last three years, including 12 months ago, Kaymer's strokes-gained approach figures are as strong as anyone's here and it's that which will eventually lead him back to the winners' circle. With Rory and Justin Thomas both absent and this event so often going to someone who has suffered a setback in Abu Dhabi, the shift in his price makes him hard to ignore.
Romain Langasque and Adri Arnaus both showed much more than the German last week, but both have been cut accordingly, although I half expected Arnaus to go off closer to 33/1 than the 45/1 on offer. Still, he was twice the price of Kaymer last week and I don't want to place too much stock in one windswept tournament now that the calmer and lower-scoring conditions of Dubai lie in wait.
On that note, I'll finish by suggesting that Dean Burmester and George Coetzee are worth considering against Bezuidenhout in the top South African market, offered only by Sky Bet at present hence not featuring among the recommended bets. It may just be that Bezuidenhout wants a tougher test whereas his two compatriots, both of whom excel in the Portugal Masters, are suited by low-scoring shootouts.
Both have placed here, Burmester doing so after a horrific car accident on the eve of last year's tournament, and he would be marginally preferred to Coetzee if you want to play each-way rather than dutch them at a combined 3/1. The big-hitter was another to miss the cut last week but he was pleased to sign off on the front foot and is far more suited to the Majlis Course, where we should see birdies and eagles back in fashion.
Posted at 2000 GMT on 25/01/20
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