Thirteen years ago, Tiger Woods won his 14th major when he beat Rocco Mediate in a Monday play-off for the US Open. Even in a career so extraordinary as his, this one-legged triumph stands out as perhaps the best demonstration of inarguably the greatest player of his generation: however you weigh the parts, it was a combination of Woods' extraordinary ability, his refusal to quit and his desperation to win which ultimately saw favourite beat 500/1 shot.
We've all seen that putt on the 18th hole many times before. Slowed down, Woods' ball bounces along Torrey Pines' notoriously imperfect greens with an abandon which should have made its destination uncertain. But when it found enough of the hole to submit, and Mediate wryly reacted with 'I knew he'd make it', well, so did all of us. Part of the genius of a sportsman like Woods is to convince everyone watching, if only for a second, that their power over the outcome is someway supernatural.
It's a shame that Woods isn't here to try again, to reach for number 16 at a course he loves, but there are heirs apparent wherever you look in what is otherwise a fascinating renewal. That one of them arrives having had a PGA Tour title cruelly taken from him a week and a half ago, because of Covid-19 and close contacts, only adds to that fascination, and makes this a major of its time.
With that in mind I like the look of VIKTOR HOVLAND at 25/1 generally and 28/1 in a place.
Although his two PGA Tour wins to date have been somewhat low-key, taking place as they did in Puerto Rico and Mexico and with few of the world's best involved, Hovland has continued to climb the rankings this year and now sits on the fringes of the game's elite.
No fewer than six top-six finishes in 12 stroke play starts demonstrate how persistent a threat he's been in 2021, and the first of them came here at Torrey Pines when he finished second to Patrick Reed in the Farmers, during which he carded a second-round 65 on the South Course which should go down as one of the very best of the season.
The only player to really threaten Reed in the final round, Hovland should've taken plenty from that performance and it's one of several excellent displays so far in California, where he won the US Amateur, then finished 12th in the US Open before turning professional, and also took fifth place on his debut at Riviera in February.
While the 2008 US Open produced an eclectic leaderboard, strong form on the west coast was a consistent theme. Mediate went on to record his (presumably) final PGA Tour win at Cordevalle, John Merrick did the same at Riviera, subsequent Torrey Pines winner Brandt Snedeker wasn't far behind, and Lee Westwood's US Open record in California now reads 7-5-3-16-10, third place coming here and in agonising fashion.
DeChambeau is just so well served by the set-up of courses like these and that simply wasn't the case on past visits to Torrey Pines. Although second here as a junior, in the Farmers he's missed both cuts, failing miserable on the South Course. Yet this was a different player, completely so, and it's close to meaningless in the here and now.
Instead, we should focus on one of the small group of two-time winners this season, who is still working out Augusta, was always going to be vulnerable at Kiawah Island, and will find this much more suitable — just as he did Harding Park and Winged Foot.
It's this ability which I think puts DeChambeau at an advantage over just about every player in the field, and while the kikuyu grass used here at Torrey Pines does add a degree of unpredictability, the reigning champion is best placed to deal with whatever lie he gets. Rest assured, everyone will be playing a lot of shots out of the rough, more so than almost any other week of the year.
If I do have a concern it's this ongoing and increasingly unpleasant feud with Koepka, which could prove a distraction. That said, we probably have a tendency to underestimate DeChambeau's mental strength, and he is at least on home soil in California, whereas I'd have been more worried in New York or indeed last time out in South Carolina.
All of that is hard to measure, but his suitability to the challenge ahead looks obvious and at 18/1 he has to feature in the staking plan as he bids to emulate Koepka and defend this title.
Power in general should be a huge advantage. It always is at Torrey Pines, where it's normal to see some of the biggest sluggers on the circuit in the mix, and this time the shorter hitters don't have the respite of a day at the North Course. The South, at a maximum of 7,765 yards, is pound-for-pound the longest on the circuit and all three par-fives are very hard for certain players to reach, without being out of view for players like DeChambeau.
Given everything I've written, only price could keep TONY FINAU out of the staking plan but those extra place terms we get for major championships are sufficient to include him.
With just one low-key win to his name, it's difficult to excuse Finau's returns over the years and I won't seek to, except to say he was inches from taking the Genesis Invitational thanks to a stunning final round, and has had his pocket picked by Xander Schauffele and Webb Simpson on other occasions.
What we can say is that if he's been friend to the punter it's those who've backed him each-way in majors, who have been paid out as many as 10 times in 20 attempts. That's a fine record which includes nine top-10 finishes in his last 13 appearances, and while some have been a tad flattering, he's also been right in the thick of things in all four of them.
Hailing from California, for all he now lives in Texas, Zalatoris will be relishing this return to the west coast and he was a very good seventh in the Farmers back in January, his South Course scoring (eighth in the field) holding up well.
"Torrey being as long and tight as it is, that only fits in my favour," . "I’ve said this before, out of the four majors, I think the US Open probably fits my game best. You have to drive it straight and drive it far. I played really well in the US Open at Winged Foot, and at a place like this, length is a priority. Guys are only going to be hitting half the fairways, and so if I’m 15 to 20 yards ahead of them, it’s a massive advantage."
As for the greens, which are not to everyone's liking, he added: "I love poa annua greens. I’m sure I’m in the minority, but I grew up on it, and the earlier you play it the better."
That all makes for a straightforward case for the player whose ball-striking was second only to Cantlay in the PGA Championship last month, having been the best in the field prior to that, and one whose prodigious length is complemented by awesome approach work.
The negative would be that his trademark iron play went badly missing last time out at Colonial, but his field-leading performance at the Byron Nelson came after a poor effort at Quail Hollow, and this volatility is to be expected. Ultimately he's playing under ideal conditions here and has shown himself to be ready for this level.
Casey was brilliant when contending behind Morikawa at Harding Park, and he also fought back from an opening 76 to climb inside the top 20 at Winged Foot — that's despite being one of just two players who shot worse than 74 on Thursday and still managed to make the weekend.
That means Casey's form in the two events I consider to be the best guide is right up there with DeChambeau and Finau, and he's always been dangerous on the west coast, where he has lost a play-off at Riviera, also finished second at Pebble Beach (and Harding Park), and has been third at Silverado.
Having been popular at 40/1 and shorter for the Masters, we can have a slightly bigger price here despite the fact he's remained in good form since and arrives having been fourth in the PGA and sixth when defending his European Open title last time. Across both these and the previous Valspar Championship, he's ranked fourth or better from tee-to-green, and his putter has been improving.
A winner already this year and playing some of the best golf of his career, Casey only really falls down on a lack of evidence that he can score at Torrey Pines. However, he was 28th when last playing the Farmers, his recent form is stronger now, and his blend of sheer strength and some of the best iron play in the sport is one I like.
Some may argue he's not a winner, but if he does break through it will be the 20th title of a 20-year career, a record all bar the very best of their generation would be proud of. And although he's been around for so long, it's only recently that he's really had a look at winning a major, and perhaps only now that he believes he's good enough.
I certainly do and he looks the pick of the English challengers in a US Open which could well play out exactly as its organisers want it to.
Posted at 1800 BST on 14/06/21
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