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Preview written and published prior to the withdrawal of Dustin Johnson


Adam Scott, Brendan Steele, Martin Laird, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Chappell, Andrew Landry, Corey Conners. Seven Valero Texas Open champions, all at TPC San Antonio, and a collective who tell us so much about the formula for this Greg Norman-designed course, one we haven't seen for almost exactly two years now.

At least three of those names — Scott, Chappell and Conners — are associated with horrible putting, but it's the flip side that explains why they've enjoyed sustained success on the PGA Tour. Just like the others, they're quality ball-strikers and, in particular, they drive the ball brilliantly. I don't know as there's an active course on the roster, not now that Firestone and Doral have departed, which points us in a specific direction quite like San Antonio.

Maybe that's because Norman was one of the finest drivers there ever was, and so has been his consultant on this project, Sergio Garcia. Maybe it's a coincidence. But one way or another, the roll-of-honour here, plus names like Trey Mullinax, Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy in the runners-up column, is explicit.

Conners was the eighth-best driver on the circuit during the year of his win, the fact he triumphed as a Monday qualifier without full status underlining just how tilted his game was, and to some extent is, towards what he does off the tee. A year before him, Landry stands out as a top-third-on-tour driver despite below-average distance, and had Mullinax held his nerve, the 19th-ranked driver would've won. Chappell was 30th, one place better than Hoffman, one worse than Laird. Scott was 20th in 2010 and spent the next seven or eight years as one of the best around.

It's worth saying that the details of victories for this group support the theory. Conners ranked fourth off the tee and first in approaches in beating Hoffman by two, both of them hitting the ball to an incredible standard and getting by with their short-games. Conners gained a total of 16.5 strokes on the field, and almost 15 of those came before he started chipping and putting. Landry, who also led in strokes-gained approach, happened upon one of those killer weeks with the putter, but it wasn't decisive in his victory over Mullinax, who led the field in that department.

Chappell? Same: outstanding approaches and off the tee, moderate around the greens, decent on them. And then there's the most surprising winner here, one not yet mentioned. Steven Bowditch was the 64th-ranked putter out of 71 players when he took this title, although his anomalous around-the-green stats and some kind of movement in the force are the only things that really explain that. Still, another winner who hit it far and didn't really make much.

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This trip down memory lane is a bit much, isn't it, but it has been a couple of years since Conners donned the cowboy boots, and I do only have one preview to write this week. More to the point, we can count ourselves a little unfortunate if the formula has changed in the interim. Here, in the Texas desert, the very best ball-strikers are at an enormous advantage, and with that made clear it might be a good event for a bet.

I had hoped for many weeks that Will Zalatoris would realise all this, and how good a chance this would be for a PGA Tour breakthrough like those won by the champions of 2017, 2018 and 2019, but he's a surprise absentee, and at the top of the market is a surprise entrant. Dustin Johnson, down the driving rankings but plainly among the best there's ever been when firing, comes here after an early exit at the Match Play in a sign that he feels a fraction short of Augusta-winning form.

Given that he's defending next week, I really do think it's a concern that Johnson feels the need to return to a course where he was sixth in a windy 2015 edition. Nevertheless, he's seldom all that far away and isn't one to turn down an opportunity. On the eve of the last Masters he was second in Houston, looking every inch the winner for much of the week, and he's a bigger price now than he was a few weeks ago for stronger events.

But it's Johnson's driving which is behind his dip in form and for that reason I'll look beyond him to one of those maidens who is playing at the right course, perhaps even at the right time. Step forward CAMERON DAVIS at 55/1.

Davis's last outing, at the Honda Classic, demonstrated what he's about and why San Antonio will be a good fit for him. He ranked eighth off the tee and 13th with his approach shots but, not for the first time lately, some clumsiness around the greens combined with the nature of that penal course saw him finish in the middle of the pack.

Nevertheless, it was an encouraging return to form from a player who was third in The American Express back in January. That's another desert event, it was won by past play-off loser Landry in 2020, and looks a decent pointer. Certainly, it's a better form guide than Davis's sole start here, when he missed the cut on the number at a time when he was best described as an out-of-form rookie.

Two years down the line and this sweet swinger has had a few looks and, having won the Australian Open and on the Korn Ferry Tour, he should be ready to stand up tall when next granted an opportunity, just as he did in California in fairness. That's the second time this season he's had a chance, and there was clear improvement from the first. Third time lucky could be the call come Sunday.

Here at San Antonio, Ancer's form doesn't appear all that strong but he's made the weekend in all three visits, driving the ball as well as you'd expect and making more than his share. It's hard to explain, but his iron play has been particularly poor here, and that's where the risk appears to lie. Yet he's been good with his approaches throughout this year, and I suspect those numbers from past renewals don't really tell us much.

Second after round one on his last visit and having improved again since, he looks an ideal candidate for a mid-tier event, where scoring is neither really low nor especially high (except for in gale-force winds, which are not forecast), and perhaps even on the eve of a major when others have an eye on what's to come.

Arguably the best maiden on the circuit, Ancer's focus should be on the here and now and Texas would be a great place for the breakthrough — he was actually born in the Lone Star State, again like Landry, and lives in San Antonio.

Last week he was very unfortunate to be eliminated by Kevin Streelman in the Match Play, losing a play-off to an opponent he'd previously beaten. Prior to that he'd been 22nd in The PLAYERS and 18th in the WGC-Workday, his missed cut at Riviera coming at a course where he's yet to look comfortable.

This looks a great chance to break his duck, adding his name to a long list of Texas natives or residents who have done so well in this established event.

On day two, Brian Harman made a 30-foot eagle putt to take control of a match which went down the last before Friday saw Matsuyama dish out a thrashing to Patrick Cantlay, who had looked a potential champion to that point. The Japanese putted well in a 4&2 win which saw him make nine birdies in 16 holes at a really tricky course over in Austin.

All of this is a bit Matsuyama, that is to say glorious failure has become his thing since looking like the best player on the planet four years ago. Winless since, he is undoubtedly frustrating and you have to think twice before backing him as one of the fancied runners in any event, even one such as this where the field isn't strong and the favourites — including a surely spent Scottie Scheffler (!) — are there to be opposed.

But I really like the way this course sets up for him. Matsuyama's driving stats are a little down this year, but he remains a premiere ball-striker who could very easily end the season within that top 30 or so, which is just about where you'd expect him to be. His approach play remains stellar, ranking 31st this season and fifth last, and if anyone can repeat the Conners trick it might just be the underachieving world number 25.

After wins for Max Homa and Joel Dahmen, Higgs would be a fitting addition to this year's roll-of-honour and he looks to be coming to the boil having been 29th at Sawgrass and then 19th last time out in the Honda Classic, where for the first time in his PGA Tour career he led the field in strokes-gained approach.

A few ragged performances this season hold down his off-the-tee stats, but Higgs ranked 35th as a rookie and it's this quality long-game which almost saw him break through in the Safeway Open at Silverado, where Stewart Cink just got the better of him on a tight Sunday.

At huge odds, the fact that teenage prospect Akshay Bhatia secured his first top-10 finish at Silverado caught my eye, and he opened with a round of 64 at Pebble Beach when last we saw him at PGA Tour level. Since then he's come up short in a couple of Monday qualifiers but also won a minor tour event and given his talent, 250/1 holds some kind of appeal.

Back at the front of the market, it's obviously tempting to go in again on Charley Hoffman, who was on course to finish inside the top 10 at the Corales before dropping five shots over the final two holes. That aberration aside he continued on what's been an excellent run of form, and there's nowhere he plays as well as San Antonio — except perhaps for Augusta.

Winning here to qualify for the Masters is within his capabilities but he will have to bounce back from that jarring finish, and his long-game stats, limited though they are, were poor in the Dominican Republic.

Hoffman is still the one I would regret missing out on and Brendan Steele is the only other at the front end of the market who holds serious appeal. Steele is a former champion here who has always played well at San Antonio when the putter has behaved (1-4-8-13) but has struggled when it hasn't (46-MC-62-30-42).

That tells you how much this quality driver loves the place, and he's ranked 12th and sixth in putting across his last two starts. Should that continue he will surely play well again following third place in the Honda, as he seeks to win for a second time here, something he's already done at Silverado.

The reason Steele and Hoffman are among the most reliable San Antonio specialists is plain to see, and it points us in a clear direction. Now for at least a couple of these to do what they do best and, in the case of Matsuyama and Ancer, demonstrate that a little motivation can go a long way on the eve of Augusta.

Posted at 1750 BST on 29/03/21


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