Golf expert Ben Coley was in profit at last month's PGA. Don't miss his best bets for the US Open, including former champions Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm.
- Our golf expert bagged place profits with 275/1 Cam Davis at the US PGA, along with winners at 22/1 and 80/1 in May. Click here for details of all Ben's selections.
Golf betting tips: US Open
5pts win Jon Rahm at 11/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor, BoyleSports)
3pts e.w. Jordan Spieth at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Rickie Fowler at 55/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Si Woo Kim at 80/1 (bet365, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sahith Theegala at 100/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Min Woo Lee at 125/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
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Among the many missteps taken by the PGA Tour last week, casting a shadow over their Canadian Open was quite low on the list. But while the US Open does not belong to and is not run by them, undermining it in the way that they did, with an announcement whose urgency remains unexplained and whose aftermath will continue to rage, was another slap in the face for golf fans.
When we're not being lied to and having our love for the sport pushed to breaking point, we sometimes chat merrily about it. One of the topics that comes up is how would you rank the majors. Perhaps the better way to approach it is to do so annually, with the four interchanging according to the venues chosen by three of them or even the time of year the question comes up.
In 2023, many had been waiting for the US Open to arrive even during April's Masters and May's PGA. Los Angeles Country Club looks and is spectacular, and while the west coast brings with it late nights, it should all be worthwhile. Players' eyes have been lighting up for months when discussing what's to come, so perhaps that Jay Monahan character accidentally stumbled into the right timing after all. Fill your glass with this Hollywood tonic.
My ambition for the days leading up to the tournament is to embrace the spirit of , by Geoff Shackelford, who ended his article with the following statement: "Even better, we have more majors to enjoy over the coming months. They're at tremendous courses featuring players to root for and moments to cherish. And they'll remind us not everyone sees golf as a commodity available for sale to the highest and lowliest bidder."
Shackelford should know. Along with Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, he played a key part in the restoration of LACC's North Course, bringing George C. Thomas Jr's vision back to life. As Hanse told it to , the message to the well-heeled members was a simple one: if you don't want to restore George Thomas, we're not your guys. They made the right decision.
Perhaps a more telling comment is the one that followed. Homa, who stressed that the courses aren't especially alike except for geographically (although there are visual similarities), added: "Length is not nearly as big of a deal (at Riviera) as it is out there." Quite something given that it's definitely become more and more important at Riv down the years.
And that makes it a US Open venue which both conforms to the event's profile and offers something more subtle, and with greater variety, than the likes of Torrey Pines and Brookline. Power has of late become an unmistakable essential in this major. Extra yards off the tee were vital to Matt Fitzpatrick, who succeeded Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau and Gary Woodland and Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson. It's a long time since someone won without hitting the ball a mile off the tee, but with organisers prioritising the words 'firm and fast' there should be more balance here.
Power will still matter, but whereas distance in almost all of the above cases has so often made approach shots from thick rough easier, the equation here is different. In places, fairways at the North Course are 75 yards wide, averaging around 43, but they're steeply sloped and still present a challenge. Those missing them may find themselves hoping for the best in the barranca – Hanse says they want you to find your ball and face a problem rather than lose it – or hitting from bermuda rough, which is relatively short and sparse versus the typical USGA formula but inherently unpredictable and not seen in this tournament for almost two decades.
The course's defences may not include that kind of chop-out rough with which we've become familiar (thank goodness) but are nonetheless manifold. Its sheer size for a par 70 at 7,423 yards, two obscenely long par-threes, those fairway cambers, blind shots, the barranca and the unpredictability of lies all among them, but severe greens perhaps above all others. That was the view of Adam Scott and Matt Fitzpatrick back in the spring and with plenty of short grass and rugged bunkering surrounding them, missing in the wrong place could be extremely costly.
Spieth's record on courses with wide fairways, where imagination and creativity are required, is exceptional. First he won at Augusta, then at Chambers Bay, later at Birkdale. He even left Erin Hills (T35) feeling he ought to have been in the mix given the way he struck the ball and for now his second-best US Open performance came at Pinehurst in 2014, where rough wasn't a factor.
Only at Bethpage, which staged the 2019 PGA Championship, has he really competed under what you might call standard USGA conditions even if they had nothing to do with that particular event. Spieth's best chances have come when his sometimes wayward driving isn't placed under great threat from the tee and when he can demonstrate that his approach play, recovery and short-game are all exceptional when on-song.
That short-game was actually the only reason he didn't hit the frame at the PGA Championship last month but he's nevertheless playing really well. Six top-six finishes in his last 11 tell us that, as does fifth place at the Memorial when quiet on the greens but excellent elsewhere, ranking fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green.
Perhaps most importantly of all, he described his wrist issue as under control when last speaking with reporters, adding that 'it's not a bother out on the golf course at all'. I'm not sure I'd have wanted to completely trust him on that were he heading to a Torrey Pines, but around here it seems he's fit enough to do himself justice.
Scheffler is on his way to an all-time season in terms of long-game. He's clear at the top of the tee-to-green rankings and last time out almost won the Memorial Tournament despite losing more than two strokes each day with his putter. To be clear, if we apply a field-average putting display, he wins the tournament by seven.
His putting woes have many calling for an overhaul or a new club or really whatever it takes, but I would say he putted fine in the PGA Championship when second, as he had at the beginning of the season. In a way I like that he's sticking to what he knows, or has for the most part so far, as it displays his conviction that things will turn sooner rather than later.
If they do, everyone else is in trouble but somewhat lost among the aftermath of the Memorial is that Rahm endured a nightmare putting week of his own, and I suspect he's the more likely of the two to shrug that aside.
Rahm was disappointing in the PGA Championship prior to that, so soon after the classic post-major win projections which had him anointed as an all-timer and so on, but being brought back down to earth may be no bad thing and I wonder if he might now go on to join Koepka, Spieth and McIlroy in winning two majors in the same year.
Certainly, returning to California has to be seen to be a positive as he's won five of his 25 starts in the Golden State, with a US Open return of third and first. Again this is a small advantage over Scheffler, whose record is good but not nearly as good, while McIlroy's only victory out here to date came in the Match Play and Koepka is still looking for his first.
And while Rahm didn't play well at Erin Hills or Shinnecock, he does have some strong Open and general links form and of course landed the Masters this year, demonstrating how far his short-game had come in 12 months and ultimately, like so many before him, needing only to putt to a good standard to in the end win comfortably.
Yes, it looks like his form has dipped since, but in just four starts he's produced two exceptional displays with his approaches, plus a field-leading driving performance in Mexico, and I expect him to put it all together under conditions which will suit and at a course he has seen before, having featured in the same Pac-12 Conference event which saw Homa dominate.
Perhaps the only real worry is that Rahm hasn't already spoken to the media following last week's news and, with some speculation that he might've been contemplating a shock LIV Golf move, he's going to have to face that early in the week.
Nevertheless, McIlroy's display (for 54 holes at least) in Canada is a reminder that these are top professionals for a reason and it would seem a poor excuse for a two-time major champion, who won at Riviera back in February and can threaten to land the cross-town double.
Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland sit behind the big four in the betting and both arrive as likely candidates to be the next first-time major champion. Hovland's victory last time out capped a fabulous run since he played alongside McIlroy in the final group at the Open, during which time he's also contended for the Masters and the PGA, so victory for the Norwegian would make a lot of sense.
I won't be alone though in worrying about his short-game around here, so Cantlay would be preferred having demonstrated time and again how capable he is chipping and pitching from tight lies. He's halfway to the four top-20 finishes advised at 16/1 back in December and is on a sequence of four of those dating back to this event last year, so in his home state looks another likely contender at precisely the odds he ought to be.
Fowler, like Homa from California, has a back catalogue of potentially informative results: three top-six finishes in the Open, eighth at Kiawah Island, second at Pinehurst and fifth at Erin Hills among them. Significantly, the latter two are his standout performances in this particular major.
Nine strong performances from 10 Masters starts including second in 2018 tell us he's a real Augusta specialist and at his absolute best, there might be no better putter of bentgrass greens in this field. Certainly, Fowler is up towards the top of the list in that department and the last time he gained five-plus strokes with the putter came on similar ones.
The case though largely comes down to how well he's playing. Fowler's form in 2023 reads 54-11-10-20-31-13-17-10-15-14-MC-6-9, and we can add two pre-Christmas top-10s to what's been a superb season. Coach Butch Harmon said his man would win more than once this year and while not yet vindicated in the way that he'd hoped, it's been great to see Fowler showcasing all aspects of a wonderful game again.
Kim is yet to manage a top-10 finish in a major but he's been in the mix during the weekend at Augusta, as well as this tournament at Erin Hills. Add in a top-15 finish at St Andrews last year, plus another at Harding Park in San Francisco, and all of his standout displays offer some kind of encouragement.
As far as his game goes, Kim is long enough for a US Open, he's a brilliant iron player, and few match his around the green stats down the years. Just like Tommy Fleetwood, what he does when he misses a green is an unheralded part of the Kim game and it's something which will be required at LACC.
That may not be so much of an issue here and the fact that he's made 19 cuts in succession in spite of it speaks to not just his talent, but an ability to grind which should serve him really well in major championships.
Already we've seen some evidence of that, as since securing PGA Tour membership he's finished 34th in the Open, ninth at Augusta where he was the pick of the debutants, and 40th at Oak Hill. The first of the three came at St Andrews where he was handily placed after two rounds, too.
With Augusta and the Old Course requiring real imagination and the ability to hit all kinds of shots around the green, perhaps it shouldn't surprise us that Theegala fared so well. He's a golfer you might describe as swashbuckling, with wonderful hands, and one who plays the game more as an art than a science.
Lee was 14th on his Masters debut last April, 27th in the US Open and 21st in the Open, and while disappointing on his second visit to Augusta got back on the bike with 18th at Oak Hill last month.
Already then we've seen this special young talent flirt with contending at the very highest level and it's something I believe he'll do in time. Perhaps it's still too early, but the course, with certain Australian characteristics and demanding a quality short-game, compels me to try again now.
As well as being a fine, powerful driver of the ball and a good long-iron player, Min Woo is brilliant around the greens. Here's a player who needed to chip in to force a play-off in Abu Dhabi and almost did, and whose short-game was the best in the field in the PGA Championship.
The issue of late has been a downturn with his iron play but even that has now improved three starts running and with plenty of long-iron approaches to come, and the need for creativity with wedges, he might just find another big step forward.
A contender at Sawgrass back in March and having gone up against Rahm in Spain last year, Lee is destined for big things in the future but I'm more than happy taking big prices in the here and now.
For those scanning even further down the betting I thought Ryan Fox and Padraig Harrington might also enjoy conditions.
Fox has been playing well just about everywhere throughout the past 18 months, he's long, he has the required touch, he loves firm and fast golf, and he should again do himself justice. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that he emulates Michael Campbell and wins a third men's major for New Zealand.
Harrington placed in the 2021 PGA Championship when presented with an Open-like test and while this isn't Kiawah Island, I do think it'll be more to his liking than when 50th at Oak Hill last month, since which he's been runner-up in a seniors major.
Still wonderful around the green, long enough off the tee and putting well through most of spring and into summer, he's razor-sharp at the moment and I'm not sure he's done competing with the youngsters just yet. At 400/1, there are worse outsiders, but I'll try and find another way to side with the Irishman.
Posted at 1700 BST on 12/06/23
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