The PLAYERS Championship is the party to which everyone on the PGA Tour is invited, but one wonders whether those in charge aren't too displeased when it comes to who isn't here. First, Phil Mickelson's name was absent from the entry list on Friday, and then came news that Bryson DeChambeau had lost his race to be fit in time; the two disruptors will be back, but in their absence this will be all about a world-class field battling one of the sport's most notorious golf courses.

TPC Sawgrass may not always provide the kind of scoring which is so popular with viewers, the like of which we have seen over the last fortnight, but one thing it does better than most is ask questions. This is a place where almost every tee shot requires a decision, and where a famous closing stretch offers the kind of opportunities Rickie Fowler so electrifyingly took when he won here, but with the most brutal form of punishment awaiting those who misstep.

Gone are the days where those without a good excuse would skip the event, something Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood have done in the past, and this is unequivocally the fifth-most important event on the men's calendar. Personally, I like that distinction – best of the rest is a badge The PLAYERS wears well, and here endeth the column on whether or not this is the fifth major: there isn't one, so of course it isn't. But it's no worse for it.

The market is accordingly open, with three players vying for favouritism including the defending champion. Nobody in history has won this title back-to-back but that's a quirk which will not exist forever, and the strength of Justin Thomas's form, plus his obvious affection for Sawgrass, entitles him to respect. Collin Morikawa meanwhile also boasts solid credentials, though I'm struggling to see why he's so much shorter for this than he was the Genesis Invitational, where he was runner-up on his latest start.

At 10/1 in places, perhaps Morikawa has finally graduated to where he belongs in the betting, yet in the case of both he and Thomas there is a question to be answered: will their decision not to play either the Honda Classic or the Arnold Palmer Invitational leave them at a disadvantage? It's one which applies also to the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson, and it's one I've wrestled with all weekend.

History tells us that a Florida spin is hugely beneficial. Just about everyone had had one last year, owing to a new WGC which had been added to the schedule, but it was telling that Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood simply continued what they'd done at Bay Hill only for Thomas to pick their pockets. In 2019, all the key protagonists bar fifth-placed Johnson had been seen over the fortnight prior.

From 2007 to 2018, the event took place in May, virtually guaranteeing that everyone of note had played some form of east coast golf. But I've gone right back to 1989 and from then until 2006, every winner bar David Duval had played in Florida. Duval, like Johnson did with a top-five, graduated to the top of the world rankings after his PLAYES win so the outliers here were at the very top of the sport.

Rahm ready to issue reminder

Morikawa and Thomas then are good enough to defy any such handicap, and after McIlroy said he needed a day off following a brutal weekend at Bay Hill, there's a case to be made that freshness could in fact be to their advantage. However, on balance I'm inclined to give the edge to those who are battle-hardened and at 14/1, I can't get away from their co-favourite, JON RAHM.

It's indisputable that Rahm hasn't been quite at his best lately, because after a brilliant start to the year in Hawaii, only at his favourite PGA Tour stop has he threatened to win. But just as clear is the fact he continues to drive the ball exceptionally, and last week saw him produce his best strokes-gained approach numbers since August, a level of ball-striking superior to that which took him to the US Open title earlier last summer.

For reasons which aren't immediately clear, Rahm's touch both around and on the greens has deserted him, and he'll need to remedy that to win this title. There is hope, though: this is a funk which looks so obviously temporary, and it so happens that he'd been let down by his putter before this event in 2019 and 2021, only to turn things around on the greens here at Sawgrass.

Were that to happen again, he would look very clearly the man to beat, because he's been outperforming both Thomas and Morikawa with his long-game, and he's a self-confessed Pete (and Alice) Dye fan who has won at PGA West, and whose form here at Dye's masterpiece is better than at first it may appear.

On debut, Rahm was third after round one and 10th at halfway, before a horror third round. On his return, again the Spaniard sat on the heels of the leaders after two rounds, while in 2019 he led through 54 holes following a third-round 64. Sunday's 77 was in the end ugly, but Rahm still looked the man to beat before a reckless second to the 12th hole began his downfall.

A solid opening round in the abandoned 2020 edition and middle rounds of 68-67 to lie fifth entering the final round last year make for a really strong platform, similar to that which Thomas had produced before winning here, and the world number one will see this as a chance to draw a line under a frustrating start to the campaign – just as Thomas did.

Remember, it was his debut at Bay Hill and nobody got close to his ball-striking numbers, Rahm's +11.4 SG: ball-striking putting him a distance clear of Viktor Hovland's +9.2. You might reasonably ask what good it is if you're handing most of these shots back with short-game mistakes, but to me they illustrate that the player who has been clear favourite for every start this year might be ready to win just as the market is beginning to question him.

All three of the favourites deserves huge respect and splitting them isn't easy, but the one most likely to deliver looks to be Rahm, and the chance to support him at 14/1 with eight or more places is very difficult to turn down.

Given that DeChambeau-Westwood repeat of last year it would be no surprise to see something similar through Hovland and Scottie Scheffler, but while that Florida run-out should prove advantageous, perhaps being in the heat of battle under such brutally difficult conditions could take the edge off. I certainly prefer those, like Rahm, who got through some good work without feeling like they were ever really in the running.

With that in mind I thought HIDEKI MATSUYAMA's performance hinted that he could win his fourth title in less than 12 months, having added victories in Japan and Hawaii to that historic Masters triumph last April.

Matsuyama was a never-threatening 20th at Bay Hill and it was encouraging to see his iron play return to the levels of the Phoenix Open, having been a shade disappointing at Riviera. Last week he was solid off the tee and seventh with his approaches, but quiet on the greens.

That's always the risk with Matsuyama and historically he's had his share of troubles on bermuda grass, but that all changed in the Sony Open where he led the field. It is of course unlikely we receive the same gift from the Japanese star, but that effort was the culmination of steady improvements on these surfaces and I'd be hopeful he can improve on Bay Hill, not least because he has a far better record here at Sawgrass when it comes to putting.

Matsuyama certainly enjoys the tee-to-green challenge here, too, and his record in the event reminds me a little of Augusta. There, he'd often threatened and finally put things together having gathered plenty of invaluable experience, and the same could be true on his eighth start here having bagged five top-25s from seven, not to mention shot that stunning, course-record 63 only to have it expunged in 2020.

Having played the best golf in the field over the final two rounds of the 2019 edition, an 11-under weekend vaulting him from the cut-line to eighth, Matsuyama's only recent mishap came in round one last year when he played himself out of the tournament. Nevertheless, he recovered with an excellent second round to narrowly miss the cut, and since then has enjoyed the best year of his career. His game is so obviously in a better place now.

There's not much this market doesn't know but given his record here and the titles he's been winning, I'm struggling to see why Matsuyama should be behind Schauffele in the betting, and he looks a likely contender on the back of that nice, out-of-the-spotlight preparation over at Bay Hill.

'Golden Child' looks great value

Shane Lowry was unfortunate to be mugged in the Honda Classic and could make amends in style, the former WGC and Open champion more than capable of winning for the first time since Portrush. He's respected but was always going to be popular and the same goes for Matt Fitzpatrick, ninth here last year when running on empty and so much better prepared this time around.

At the prices though the eye is drawn to last year's favourite Dustin Johnson and JORDAN SPIETH and though the former has to be on everyone's shortlist at a whopping 35/1, Spieth looks even better value at 50s.

Now, it must be acknowledged that Spieth hasn't warmed-up in Florida, electing to skip the Honda and Bay Hill. He's yet to play in the former so that can't be labelled a surprise, but having been fourth in the Arnold Palmer last year, it does seem a little odd that he's taken a fortnight off since Riviera.

That may prove his undoing, but we are at least talking about a Texan who thrives on bermuda so the transition ought not to be as problematic as it could be for some, and Spieth did manage to win the Open after four weeks away in 2017. If Duval can overcome the handicap, then perhaps so can he.