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The final edition of the WGC-Match Play will also be the weakest and it's a shame that this tournament has to bow out this way. It's not to everyone's taste and can be a nightmare for the punter, but the first three days of television make for some of the best this sport can produce and had the LIV Golf renegades been allowed to play, they would've been unmissable.
Many will call it a lottery, but four of seven editions in the round-robin format have gone to a member of the world's top five, all of whom were atop the rankings the following Monday. All told, 18 of the 28 semi-finalists were from the top two pools and the lowest-ranked player to capture the title had been beaten in the final a year earlier.
That's not to say it's easy to solve, because it isn't. There might be less depth than we're used to, more players who would buck the trends and two course-proven elites who hold sway in the betting, but one bad day at the office can still spell the end of anyone's bid for an invaluable pre-Masters boost.
Before getting onto the groups, a word on the course. Austin Country Club is a Pete Dye design which shares something in common with virtually all others in that name, in that it's quirky. There are some severe elevation changes and places you simply cannot miss, and a lot of holes will be conceded before either player has had to reach for a putter.
It's this which best explains why certain players have thrived here and others have not. Time and again we've heard about Kevin Kisner's supposed match play credentials, but really they're Austin Country Club credentials. Players like him, who at their best hit fairways, avoid mistakes and hole putts, have been very effective here – see Matt Kuchar, Alex Noren, Abraham Ancer and more besides.
That could be a problem for the 18 newcomers (17 debutants plus Scott Stallings, who hasn't played in the event at this course), though Victor Perez and Lucas Bjerregaard both made the last four on their respective debuts. That's a nice reminder of the format's inherent volatility but neither man went the distance and it's overwhelmingly likely that the champion on Sunday is an elite player with experience here.
Finally, note that the last eight finalists have all been from the southern states, namely South Carolina, Texas, Florida and Georgia. It's not something I consider to be fundamental, as you may already have noticed, but it might be a way to help dig through those on offer at big prices if you're seeking a surprise quarter-finalist.
Now we'll get to the groups. I've named each quarter for ease, so that you can see that the winner of quarter one will play the winner of quarter two. This means that Scheffler cannot face Jon Rahm or Rory McIlroy before the final. The which allows you to click player names and advance them through the draw.
Top seed Scottie Scheffler has drawn the highest-ranked player from the second pot, but can't really have any complaints about the way his section has panned out.
Yes, Tom Kim is a threat and far from the player you'd choose to face, but he's not been setting the world alight of late. It may be that a return to match play golf helps and Austin Country Club could suit given his accuracy from the tee, but Scheffler's 10-2-2 Austin record is a fearsome one and the Texan is a strong favourite.
Alex Noren also boasts a superb record at this course and is respected on the strength of it, but his form of late has been troublingly poor. Davis Riley, who will begin his first and only WGC-Match Play against Scheffler, faces a real baptism of fire but could just prove the biggest hurdle for the defending champion to clear.
It's undeniably a tricky draw for Perez, much more so than two years ago, but he's since won a couple more DP World Tour events including in very good company two months ago. With Dye form extending to Sawgrass and having played nicely enough last week, he looks overpriced to come through an admittedly difficult section.
For Hovland, there are a couple of tricky matches against dead-eye putters in Chris Kirk and Matt Kuchar, the latter having made the final in 2019 and the semi-finals last year. He's shown glimpses of his best play during the early months of the year and needs a big run to qualify for the Masters in his adopted home state of Georgia.
I was pretty sweet on Hovland before the draw, but less so now. Given that his odds haven't moved in the direction I feel they should have, he's going to have to be left out of the staking plan in favour of a more speculative play on Perez. Take eight places if you don't want to worry about having to beat Scheffler, but I'll opt for the biggest price.
PATRICK CANTLAY would've been my idea of a bet without the draw, so it's pleasing to see him handed a favourable one. KH Lee and Brian Harman are both struggling and Nick Taylor, while solid, is a debutant you have to fancy beating.
Cantlay is yet to get out of his group in four tries, but it's worth noting that he's finished runner-up each time, to Cam Smith, Tiger Woods, Harman and Seamus Power. His 6-4-2 return is perfectly solid and he's just been a little unlucky with the way things have panned out.
It's fair to offer up some concerns as to a downturn in his putting so far this year, but finishes of third (Genesis), fourth (Bay Hill) and 19th (Sawgrass) mark him down as one of the form players in the game and it can be argued that nobody is driving the ball as well as he is right now.
In truth it was only some bizarrely poor shots around the green that kept him from challenging for second place behind Scheffler in The PLAYERS, where Cantlay nevertheless produced his best result yet to enhance what's a strong record on Dye-designed courses.
He comes here fresh and in-form and while yet to claim a major scalp in this tournament, he's beaten Joaquin Niemann, Adam Scott and Shane Lowry in USA colours for a perfect 3-0-0 record as a professional. At a course where his all-round game really should thrive, I think he'll be a hard man to beat.
If he does come through, he'll face the winner of arguably the weakest group in the event. Sam Burns is the only seeded debutant and while Power went well for a long time last year, he's under pressure with Ryder Cup points to play for and struggled in Florida. I'd rather chance Adam Scott, but winning the group is about as far as I'd expect him to go.
Beating course specialists Noren and Louis Oosthuizen last year shows how comfortable Conners is at Austin, as does the fact he was able to stop a red-hot Ancer in his tracks. Although losing his semi-final to Kisner, he went on to beat Dustin Johnson to seal third place.
With his sole PGA Tour win to date having come in Texas, and having shown a good level of form at other Dye designs (17th Kiawah Island, seventh Sawgrass, fourth Harbour Town), the Canadian could go a long way once more. His relentless ball-striking reminds me a little of former runner-up Hunter Mahan and he was in good form prior to a blip last time out.
Yes, he was a huge disappointment last week, but one bad swing followed by a bad break on his third hole isn't a particular concern and he was two-under for the other 35. Nor is the neck problem which was mentioned as a potential diagnosis, as he'd earlier suggested all was well and would surely have withdrawn, or else not entered in the first place, were it a hindrance.
Remove that and you've the 11th-ranked player in the field, one very fond of Dye courses having played well at Sawgrass and Harbour Town, and who beat Poulter and Fleetwood last year before losing a sudden-death play-off to the eventual champion, Scheffler.
It would've been hard on the latter to go out but he came mighty close to defeat, Fitzpatrick missing from around 10 feet during that sudden-death showdown, and it confirmed my belief that this course should bring out the best in the Englishman. For the record, he was 40/1 then, too, when ranked 25th in the world, facing a stronger field, and not having won in the US.
He's among the handful with two debutants in his group and while I obviously have respect for Min Woo Lee, sixth at Sawgass, this course might not be for him. Fitzpatrick has now finished runner-up in his group three times and should make it fourth-time lucky.
Given the nature of his draw, I'm keen to back Fitzpatrick with eight places if possible. That means topping the group and then winning one match for a place payout. He'll do that if back to his best.
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