Five of the world's top 10 remain in the field for a strong renewal of the Valspar Championship, and two of them have eyes on Jon Rahm's number one ranking. Collin Morikawa missed an excellent chance to take it in the Bahamas late last year, and last week it was Viktor Hovland's turn to narrowly miss out, though his late mistakes at Sawgrass were likely nothing to do with anything but matters at hand. He was playing to win one of the most important tournaments of the year, the rankings far from his mind, and looked like he might do so until those short-game frailties returned.
Now, though, both will prepare for the Valspar at Innisbrook's Copperhead Course knowing full well that Rahm is powerless to stop them. It is a factor which is difficult to weigh up but nevertheless significant, and should ensure focus where there might have been temptation to let the mind wander. We are now into the thick of the season and with the Match Play next week, and Augusta soon after that, this would otherwise have been a tournament to conserve rather than spend mental energy.
These are the challenges one has to face in order to reach the summit of any professional sport, so rather than seek to argue against either man, I'll simply say that taking short prices doesn't really appeal. This tournament hasn't been especially kind to favourites down the years but above all else its position in the schedule increases the prospect of another slightly peculiar leaderboard, for all that things should be a little more predictable than that utterly bizarre PLAYERS Championship most of us would like to forget in a hurry.
Sawgrass is tough at the best of times, especially so last week, and perhaps that's why it's been a useless form guide in the short-term. Of course, we don't have to go back far to see evidence of champions who went on to achieve great things later in the year, but history suggests some more creative thinking might be best here, in the aftermath, when many are going to struggle to dust themselves down and go again.
Last year, the Honda Classic followed it and of the 12 players who made up the top 10 and ties, only Sungjae Im (17th Sawgrass, 8th Honda) really held his form. The winner, Matt Jones, had been 55th in The PLAYERS, Brandon Hagy hadn't played in it, and those closest behind such as Denny McCarthy (55th), Russell Henley (MC) and CT Pan (MC) had been non-factors at Sawgrass.
Two years earlier, it was the Valspar which came next, and Paul Casey won it following a missed cut. Louis Oosthuizen went from 56th at Sawgrass to a share second behind Casey, Jason Kokrak sitting alongside him having been just in front a week earlier. Go back another year and the Byron Nelson had its turn, with Aaron Wise (DNP) and Marc Leishman (63rd) dominating.
Perhaps that's enough to justify sticking with Morikawa or giving the benefit of the doubt to Justin Thomas, eventually mid-pack from the wrong side of the draw, but the one I like is MATTHEW FITZPATRICK at around the 28/1 mark.
Fitzpatrick opened at the same price he started at Sawgrass in a far stronger field, and I can't really understand why he's considered similarly likely to win here even having been shaved to 28s. Perhaps it's because he missed the cut in 2018, but his PGA Tour form that spring read MC-30-MC-MC-36-38-14-46 and he's a better player now, his run of top-10 finishes to begin the year only knocked off course by weather which some felt should've seen The PLAYERS suspended.
Fitzpatrick still managed to drive the ball well and gain strokes from tee-to-green, so a good putting week and he'd have been among those to defy a massive draw bias. Instead, the most trustworthy club in his bag happened to let him down and while that will have been frustrating, he should have no trouble shaking it off, safe in the knowledge that those hard yards working on his swing over winter have not suddenly been blown into irrelevance.
Unlike Fitzpatrick, Woodland did benefit from a good set of tee-times at Sawgrass but it's just not his course and I'm not going to dwell on a missed cut. He's now failed to make the weekend in seven of his 10 starts there, it's nearly a decade since his sole top-20 finish, and for a major champion to have such an abysmal record there tells you how worthless a guide to the state of his game it really is.
Woodland bounced back from last year's missed cut with sixth place in Texas and was in the mix in the Memorial following a poor effort at Sawgrass in 2018, so the message from me is to draw a thick, red line through last week where he's concerned. Do that, and you've a former Valspar champion who was fifth at the Honda, and then had an excellent chance to win when fifth again at Bay Hill.
We do have to forgive him a missed cut at the aforementioned Riviera, where he's a three-time champion, but prior to that he had his pocket picked in Saudi Arabia before a brilliant ball-striking display in Phoenix, so it's been a generally encouraging start to the year for a player whose previous individual outing came last August.
He was on the wrong side of the draw at Sawgrass, impressing hugely during a bogey-free second round, and is sure to be much more comfortable at a course where he's been third and fourth and was 13th at a big price last year. Indeed whereas he says Sawgrass doesn't fit his eye, he's spoken of how much he enjoys 'chipping' his driver along these corridors in the same way he has at those other tree-lined courses he so enjoys.
Kaymer got off to a nightmare start on his long-awaited return at the Honda, having taken time out due to the birth of his first child. But come the second round at the brutal PGA National, his customarily strong ball-striking was back and he was able to leave there with plenty of positives.
Having since been forced to sit and watch from the sidelines as others battled Sawgrass, where he won in 2014, he'll return with plenty to prove and at a course he described as one of his favourites in the US when 20th on debut back in 2011. Since then he's played twice and missed two cuts, but his long-game was excellent on his last visit and he'd sat eighth after the first round only to miss out by a shot.
That was six years ago and I'm under no illusions as to his revised status in the game, but he's had several chances to win on similar courses since 2020, and remains a fabulous iron player. We saw as much with a field-leading display on his final start of 2021 and as I believe this is a really good course for him, a small bet at 150/1 makes plenty of appeal.
Plenty of other outsiders make some appeal including Hayden Buckley, whose excellent ball-striking is being hidden by some shocking short-game displays. Martin Laird has form here and at Riviera and continues to hit the ball to a high standard, Charley Hoffman loves the course and has shown the odd flourish, and Aaron Wise is a good putting week from getting right into the mix again.
My next selection though is DANNY LEE, a real rogue who could shoot any number but is definitely capable of getting involved here if putting it all together.
The New Zealander has started to strike his irons really well, dating back to a third-round 65 for his best ever Riviera finish, and has form at River Highlands where he's been third in the past. His sole PGA Tour win came on a similarly old-school, tree-lined course at the Greenbrier and he's also gone well at the likes of Firestone, Four Seasons, Colonial, El Camaleon, East Lake and Deere Run, all of which tell us where he's at his most effective.
Here at Copperhead, he was the first-round leader on his debut in 2014, seventh a year later on his return and in the mix in 2016 before he was forced to withdraw. He then added 22nd place in 2017 and displayed further evidence of how much he enjoys the test when defying a slow start to climb to 21st last year, when his form figures read MC-WD-MC.
It's not as if he's in red-hot form now but he has really caught fire with his approaches, hitting it far better than the end result at Bay Hill and then, last week, doing so again over the 34 holes he played. Lee was in the very last group of the ill-fated second wave and chose not to come back for the final two holes of his second round, so it's easy to miss the fact he'd made one bogey and two birdies in 16 excellent holes played under brutal conditions.
As it turned out, he'd have made the cut had he returned and finished birdie-birdie but of course that'd have been unlikely and it's not surprising that he chose not to even attempt it. Still, it means he comes here seemingly under a cloud according to the form book, whereas he might actually be very encouraged by how the last few weeks have gone.
He may well be hamstrung by the putter but it hadn't been a problem at the start of the year and we are talking about one of the most volatile players around. A few years ago he'd been making nothing until coming here and holing everything and rather than have a stab at just how things will go on the greens, I'll simply say that the key element of his game has been really very good, and he now comes to a course at which he's very comfortable.
At massive odds I am quite sweet on Lee and rate him the pick of the outsiders ahead of WYNDHAM CLARK, who nevertheless is worth chancing.
As a player who has made his name as one of the best putters around, it's striking that Clark's tee-to-green stats have been solid in both visits during which he's failed to make his share. That's why in making both cuts, he's offered plenty of promise.
Given how strong the link to Riviera appears to be, the fact he's finished 17th and eighth from two starts there stands out and the only difference is he's made plenty of putts over in LA but struggled to do so here in Tampa.
His form doesn't look great on paper but after a run of cuts made and having often been around the top 20, he missed the cut on the number at Pebble Beach and then couldn't quite salvage things with a second-round 68 in the Phoenix Open, again missing out narrowly.
After a month off, he returned in The PLAYERS and unsurprisingly missed the cut but he has been awful in all three visits to Sawgrass and this is much more suitable. Definitely capable on the right course, Copperhead is that and his long, left-to-right driving and ace putting reminds me a little of Burns.
The difference is that Clark hasn't mastered his approach play yet but at 300/1 a small bet in hope rather than expectations completes the staking plan.
Posted at 1305 GMT on 15/03/22
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