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There is one more place available in the field for next week's Masters Tournament, and one way to get it: you have to win the Valero Texas Open, this hundred-year-old PGA Tour event whose identity is now shaped not by the history books, but by the calendar.
JJ Spaun did it last year and Corey Conners did it in 2019, one as your regular outsider, the other as a player who wasn't even in the field and had to come through a Monday qualifier. Before all this, when the Houston Open occupied the same slot, Ian Poulter also used it as his way back to Augusta National, beating Beau Hossler in a passable impression of the famed Ryder Cup 'Postman'.
Russell Henley, Jim Herman, Matt Jones and DA Points are others to have managed to lock their jaws onto one of the biggest carrots this sport can dangle, and there's a strong chance we're adding a new name to the list on Sunday. Why? Because there are just eight players in this field who have already received their written invitations to the first major of the year.
As a result, officials at TPC San Antonio don't have to worry much about whether their course offers any similarities with Augusta National (although there's a chicken-and-egg element to that), and the two are very different. Just as it seems likely that the Masters field grows by one, it's unlikely that the winner of it is playing here in Texas, unless Hideki Matsuyama finds something. An osteopath, maybe?
Back to matters at hand and well-known Augusta grumbler Tyrrell Hatton heads the betting by default from Conners and Rickie Fowler, the most high-profile Masters absentee as things stand.
It says much about this field that Fowler is the most appealing of the three, but he wasn't exactly bullish about the state of his swing last week despite beating Jon Rahm in his opening match, and it's a big ask to take care of the twin aims of qualifying and ending a long winless run at the precise moment people begin to expect it of you.
Winners here are somewhat varied, but so many of them are what you'd call rock-solid drivers of a ball. That description certainly covers Spaun, Conners and Andrew Landry, three of the last four champions, while it extends back to the very first time the event came here and Adam Scott.
Brendan Steele, Charley Hoffman and Kevin Chappell have all won in the interim, and again they're strong, pretty long drivers who can build a platform upon a par 72 designed by one of the finest drivers of them all, Lord Voldemort.
With approach play no less important and several winners here what you'd generously describe as average putters, I'm going to start with the player I'm sweetest on at the prices, NICK HARDY.
It's no doubt been a poor season so far for a player who enjoyed a solid rookie campaign that saw him flirt with the top of the leaderboard in the US Open and get in the mix a couple of times thereafter.
Injury and a slow start ultimately meant Hardy had to go back to Korn Ferry Tour Finals to earn a second crack and it was no surprise to see him take care of business there, before soon securing his best finish yet at this level with fifth place in the Sanderson Farms.
What has been surprising is the way he's played since, but I like what I heard from Hardy when he spoke to recently. He talked about his struggles with a desire for perfection, and reflected on the lessons he learned from an inspiring college coach that he'd let get away from him.
Having sided with him there at 33/1, around the same price as Hojgaard, van Rooyen simply has to be given another chance given the way he'd played in the Valspar Championship before that.
Granted, 56th place in a weak field was at the bottom end of expectations but consistency has seldom been his strong suit, and I do like the fact that he began the year with sixth place in the AmEx. Through Landry and one or two others, that desert golf event has often been a good pointer to this one.
Van Rooyen himself helps tie the two together as he's played one Texas Open and finished 14th back in 2021, driving the ball well. He'd done next to nothing in stroke play events that year but made the last 16 of the Match Play and carried that improved form with him to San Antonio, a course which looks a nice fit on paper.
Again, he's a strong driver at his best and, in an event which has so often gone to one of the best iron players in the field, the fact he ranked second just a fortnight ago is notable. I can easily forgive him one quiet week on a new course where the switch from fast greens to slow ones seemed to really catch him out.
It was tempting to ignore the entire front end of the market given the history of this event and the wind that's forecast, but I can't get past DAVIS RILEY, a course winner here on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Riley was third at the halfway mark in the Valspar Championship, for which he briefly traded as favourite, and though disappointing at the weekend a share of 19th marked a continuation of the improved form he's shown ever since returning to the east coast.
Born in Mississippi and educated in Alabama, just like Sam Burns he's a player who is bound to be more comfortable in the southern states, and we can see that in his record in Texas. Not only did he win on his first start here at KFT level, but he's added a string of excellent displays back at this one, including when hitting the front during the final round of an event won by Burns last May.
Cole was outstanding that week, one heavy-handed chip shot ultimately costing him the title before a harsh lip-out ended the play-off. We saw him driving it well, far better than the stats say he should've, and to be frank every part of both his game and demeanour left a lasting impression.
Lingmerth was 27th despite putting poorly in the Valspar, a continuation of the form he'd shown when sixth at Sawgrass. It's been a fine season so far for the Swede, whose approach play can be top-drawer, and who at his best is another tidy driver who keeps it in play.
Having threatened the places at Copperhead, sitting 10th entering the final round, he's another who is dangled at a similar price in this weaker field on the presumption that the course is less suitable – and form figures of MC-MC-44-51 down the years would make that seem fair enough.
However, on debut he'd been playing poorly coming in, his form was no more than patchy a year later, and in 2015, when he showed signs of encouragement, he was on the wrong side of a huge draw bias. That leaves us with 2018, his last visit, and he managed to shoot a second-round 68 to scrape through to the weekend despite having been out of sorts all year.
It's true that he's not yet had a real chance to win but it could happen this time, as he faces a weaker field on the back of his best performance in a while, having finished 27th at the Valspar thanks to his trademark approach play.
He's another who has gone close at El Camaleon, the forecast wind holds no fears, and there's enough juice in quotes of 100/1 to add him to a largely speculative staking plan.
Posted at 2045 BST on 27/03/23
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