The Masters is now just around the corner, and if there's one thing lacking from the build-up (not to do with Tiger Woods) it might be victory for one of the PGA Tour's established stars in a season which has so far been about the emergence of new ones.
Scottie Scheffler is the latest, and in less than two months he's gone from maiden to three-time champion whose entire career CV, at the age of 25, is missing only one thing: a major championship. It has been a staggering rise and demonstrates how fluid the situation is at the top of the sport, Jon Rahm having spent months clinging on from Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland, until Scheffler emerged from out of shot.
Compared to these names, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are grizzled veterans of the sport. McIlroy's first PGA Tour win came when Scheffler was 13 years old, and when Spieth was capturing the Open Championship in 2017, Scheffler and Morikawa were preparing for the Walker Cup. When it comes to Augusta National, it will be fascinating to see whether experience can continue to hold sway in a sport which has never valued it less.
The blessing and the curse of holding this slot on the calendar is to have everything viewed through the prism of the Masters. It used to be that the Houston Open would style itself on Augusta, a unique calling card and one which seemed to do the trick. By contrast the Valero Texas Open relies more on heritage and those cowboy boots some poor soul will be expected to put on when they succeed Spieth on Sunday, if indeed anybody does.
If we were playing 'guess the selection', a game which admittedly would not appeal to many of the world's 7.75 billion people, those who follow the sport religiously would probably know what's coming next. ABRAHAM ANCER simply ticks every box, and in a weak field this looks a fine opportunity to bag his second PGA Tour win.
Ancer plays under the flag of Mexico, but he was in fact born in Texas. Nowadays, he lives just down the road from TPC San Antonio, practicing there throughout the off-season. This is as much a home game as the Mayakoba Classic, where he's demonstrated time and again that he can rise to the occasion, finishing eighth, 12th, 12th and seventh on his last four visits.
His record here isn't quite so strong, but it's packed with promise. Ancer has made all four cuts, driving the ball well but failed by his approach play until that piece of the puzzle clicked last year. Typically his driving was errant and he continued to struggle around the greens, whereas on them he has gained strokes in each of these four appearances. Given how erratic he can be with putter in hand, this speaks to his familiarity with the course.
Ancer's approach play has generally been good since last year's renewal, the exception being when disappointing in the Valspar. Perhaps on reflection a Monday finish to The PLAYERS Championship bled into Copperhead, but he bounced back to reach the quarter-finals of the Match Play where a Saturday thrashing of Morikawa was among the performances of the week.
Last year, Spieth completed his resurgence by winning here and there are definitely parallels with Woodland, who found his game at the Honda Classic (fifth), could then have won the Arnold Palmer Invitational (fifth), and again caught the eye when 21st at the Valspar Championship last time out.
Not for the first time, Woodland's putter hurt him at Copperhead, though his driving wasn't quite where he'd like it to be. Nevertheless, 10th at halfway and 21st come the close adds substance to his form, and underlines the fact that he's in much better touch than when sixth here in 2021.
Those not yet in the Masters field have to win here to get the final invite and though many will have eyes on Richard Bland as he bids to get over last week's heartache, it's Fowler who could author the biggest story of the week, at a course where he was 17th in 2019 and 17th again last year.
Form always requires context, and had we been talking about visits back in 2014 or so, Fowler's wouldn't leap off the page. But while he was still inside the world's top 10 in 2019, he came here last year with his ranking plummeting, with no form to speak of, and finished 17th – despite an opening 76 to lie 110th. Over the final three rounds he was nine-under, scoring comparable with those in the mix. Just two other players shot 76 or worse and made the weekend, neither finishing up with Fowler.
Having been second at halfway in 2019, San Antonio is a really good course for Fowler, and it was under familiar, desert conditions that he was third to McIlroy and Morikawa at the CJ Cup earlier in the season. Elsewhere, he's won in Abu Dhabi and at Scottsdale and played well at PGA West and Dove Mountain, all similar, all in the desert, and all good pointers towards this event.
Ghim finished sixth at Sawgrass last time and spoke of how much more comfortable he felt versus the previous renewal, which saw him tumble down the leaderboard on Sunday as two-ball partner Justin Thomas won the title.
He went on to finish 44th here but it's notable that he ranked seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green, finishing 77th in putting among 78 players who made the cut. That's not completely out of character, but he putted quite nicely in The PLAYERS, which hadn't been the case a year ago, and is worth chancing in that department.
Ghim went to college in Texas and his game is all about quality, accurate driving, and pounding greens. His stats this season may not quite paint that picture but last year he was 21st on the PGA Tour from tee-to-green, and he was back doing what he does best last time, ranking second in fairways, fourth in greens, and eighth in SG: tee-to-green in an elite tournament.
This is anything but and having gone well at PGA West when fifth, and spent plenty of time practicing in the desert in LA, he has a lot in his favour here.
He was second in strokes-gained off-the-tee when 20th here on debut and made the cut on his return, while he's got an excellent desert record on the DP World Tour where three of his last four starts in the UAE have been top-10s, and he's been in the mix in all four.
Another who went to college in Texas, Frittelli now lives in Austin and will have plenty of support. Proven at this level and having won an eve-of-major John Deere Classic, history might just repeat itself.
Finally, BRENDAN STEELE has to be worth a bet at 66/1 and upwards. You'll get 100/1 with firms paying six places and there's 125/1 in some low-key places, but 80s with the full eight is more than enough to make the staking plan.
Steele is one of the most horses-for-courses players on the circuit, so his 2011 win here is a really big pointer. He's since won the Safeway Open twice, been second and fourth in the Sony Open, and boasts four top-six finishes at TPC Scottsdale. He's been runner-up at PGA West, too, and is another who helps tie these courses together.
He's also one of the most reliable drivers of a ball on the PGA Tour so again fits the profile, and that club has remained strong all season – he ranks fifth, two spots ahead of fellow former Texas winner Conners, and just behind rookie sensation Cameron Young.
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