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Collin Morikawa is favourite for The PLAYERS Championship after a brilliant first-round 65 which will have frustrated anyone who backed him for the first-round lead.
New dad Chad Ramey managed to defy a lengthy spell of poor form to go one shot lower than Morikawa, but it's the latter who is the man to beat from Scottie Scheffler, who patiently went about shooting an opening 68 and surely won't be far away come Sunday.
Preference among the two would be for Scheffler, but today's forecast suggests the breeze will kick up and adds uncertainty. Right now it's best described as blustery, and while hard to know who will get the best and worst of it, it seems unlikely that things are the same for every member of the field.
The second-round leader market might be the last remaining hope of a big-priced winner for the week, but I'd rather accept defeat in that respect and focus instead on the three-balls.
BEN GRIFFIN won this three-ball by seven shots in round one as he carded one of the standout rounds among the late starters, and it's pretty surprising that BoyleSports dangle 6/4 about a repeat.
That was the very best price you'd have got for round one, and other firms have cut to around the 11/10 mark, a price which itself would be worth taking. Griffin's form this year stands head and shoulders above that of both Justin Lower and Matthias Schwab and he probably deserves to be no bigger than evens.
Lower had threatened to produce the best score yesterday but came home in 41, which will be hard to bounce back from especially as he begins on that same today. Yes, Griffin did have a fantastic time with the putter, but that's among his strengths and I return to the margin of victory, a whopping seven strokes. He could've shot the best score putting badly.
It was a frustrating first round for JUSTIN THOMAS, who inexplicably ran up a six from the middle of the fourth fairway, less than a hundred yards to go, having been two-under through three at the time.
Three-putt bogeys from no distance at all at two of the par-threes and a six from close to the par-five ninth green in two made it a clumsy day which in some way epitomises how the first few tournaments of the year have gone for the two-time major champion.
That shouldn't alter the fact that Sawgrass is a fabulous course for him, and with his short-game to blame for most of what went wrong on Thursday, I expect him to produce something much better and to make the cut. He won from seven back through 36 holes and will know he's not quite out of this yet providing he finds something in the mid-sixties today.
Prices of 7/4 look generous in an admittedly high-class group which Jordan Spieth bossed on day one, thanks largely to a putter that had cost him the title at Bay Hill just days earlier. Max Homa completes the trio and is respected, but the bottom line is that Thomas should remain clear favourite at this golf course.
Gary Woodland has been hitting the ball really well again lately and that was enough for a level-par 72 to kick off his tournament, despite a shocking day with the putter.
There's of course a pretty high risk of that happening again, but it didn't stop him outscoring an out-of-sorts Martin Laird by four, and Kyoung-hoon Lee by one. Woodland is understandably into 7/5 generally with 13/8 available in a place but with consistency having been lacking for some time and a generally poor record here, I can just about overlook him.
Aaron Baddeley has been playing well all year and could offer a touch of value in this group.
His putter, once the best club in his bag, was ice cold in round one but there's definitely scope for improvement as a result. If Baddeley can keep it in play off the tee, he could do plenty of damage.
The concern I have is that David Lingmerth is a former Sawgrass runner-up who loves it here and hit it pretty well yesterday. I'd be more worried about him than Ben Martin despite the latter's good course record, and respect for Lingmerth is enough to necessitate leaving Baddeley out of the staking plan.
Posted at 0900 GMT on 10/03/23
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