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The PLAYERS Championship may no longer be the strongest tournament in men's golf, a fact underlined by the absence of a defending champion this week, but it remains among the highlights of a packed spring calendar which culminates in the Masters just a month from now.
You've all seen the adverts and you all know the drill. TPC Sawgrass is among the most famous courses in the sport, and features one of its most famous holes. Pete and Alice Dye knew exactly what they were doing with the par-three 17th, where this tournament has been won and lost many times before, but even they perhaps didn't realise quite how notorious it would become.
Throw in a risk-reward par-five 16th and then the fearsome 18th, where Justin Thomas almost lost this title with a pull and Cam Smith almost lost it with a push, and we have a guaranteed crescendo for a tournament with its own identity. I've always been less inclined to label The PLAYERS the fifth anything, and prefer to see it as unique: this is neither a major nor another PGA Tour event, and it's all the better for both.
There's a theoretical risk that this year's renewal loses something for being the fifth designated event of the year, the latest gathering of the non-suspended elite, but I don't think it does. We've seen some fabulous battles across the Tournament of Champions, the Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational, and on Sunday witnessed something rather more chaotic and widespread at Bay Hill, but it seems doubtful that anyone who loves watching this sport feels like they need a break.
Perhaps some of the top players might. This is new to them, the idea of all converging on the same place five times in 10 weeks, and those who've been in the heat of battle more than once could just find that they're running out of gas. Then again, they'll also know that things slow down a little before Augusta, and there are few courses better than this one when it comes to focusing the mind.
A fantastic winner here in 2021, when available at the same price he is today, Thomas is the one member of the sport's elite who we know not only plays well at Sawgrass, but improves for it. McIlroy has won here but that's more because he's a modern great than any real affinity for the course and the way it plays, whereas for Thomas it's perfect.
As for why, the fact that driver isn't the be all and end all probably helps. Thomas can be very good off the tee but he's seldom capable of McIlroy-style driving, and much of his best golf has come on defined, traditional courses where he can work the ball, which he infamously did during the latter stages of his knife-edge victory two years ago.
Cantlay only missed out by two at Bay Hill, but he finished his round an hour and change before the winner, and with a birdie to reach seven-under. Given that the lead was at 10 or 11-under for a good while and that eight-under never looked like quite being enough, it's hard to say he was really in contention at any stage.
Back-to-back top-fives from off the pace confirm that some off-season tweaks to his shafts is now bedded in but it's the mere fact that he's been able to prepare for The PLAYERS with an outing in Florida which could be the difference.
Fitzpatrick is another who was done by the draw last year and having been a contending ninth in 2019, one of several good efforts in Florida, he has to be considered.
Preference though is for Lowry, who has been eighth and 13th over the last two renewals, with five of his eight rounds under-par, and simply loves this winding, old-school test.
Placed at Dye's Harbour Town and at Kiawah Island, there's no disputing the fact that he's particularly well suited to Sawgrass and I quite like the fact he was down the field at Bay Hill, where he made the cut for the first time in his career but suffered a difficult Saturday in strong winds.
Eighth at Riviera following a solid 32nd in Phoenix, Kuchar's form in designated events reads really well and he was second in strokes-gained tee-to-green in the former, only his putter keeping him from challenging Rahm.
That club was a little off again at the Honda, where a bad start resulted in a missed cut, but a second-round 69 suggested we ought to be focusing on positives which extend right back to the start of the season, when he was a contending 12th, and through to seventh place at the Sony before that Riviera performance.
Kuchar is playing as well as he has been in some time and while it's four years since the 44-year-old last won an event on the PGA Tour, not only did he go close a couple of times last spring but in 2021 he was a semi-finalist in the WGC-Match Play.
That event is played at the Dye-designed Austin Country Club and Kuchar loves it, having also been second in 2019. With wins here and at the Heritage to his name, plus seventh place at Whistling Straits, he's in specialist territory and his record at Sawgrass would look even better had he not putted abysmally in 2019, when he ranked second in SG: tee-to-green.
In fact the last three times he's putted reasonably in The PLAYERS, Kuchar has finished no worse than 17th and as high as third, so with his trademark accuracy off the tee a big weapon, it's a course where he can definitely still compete.
Seven top-20s down the years is a very strong return and he looks a big price at 175/1 with several firms, and Betfair Sportsbook going as big as 225s. The same firm will give you 12 places at 175/1 so there are plenty of options.
It's interesting to note a big move for Webb Simpson, who is now shorter in the betting, yet when they both played the Honda a fortnight ago it was Kuchar challenging for the third spot in the market as Simpson went unbacked at three-times the price.
For my money, Kuchar would be 100/1 for this had he simply skipped that volatile event. As it happens he instead skipped Bay Hill, which could prove to be a blessing in disguise in terms of freshness, and at 150/1 and upwards he's a must for the staking plan.
Simpson's upturn in his approach game is notable but he won this because of his putter and in general has never gone round Sawgrass like someone particularly effective at the course. I'd much prefer Billy Horschel at the odds, another with strong Austin form, but I can't stand the idea of hearing 'swing changes' as a player hits his approach to 17.
Emiliano Grillo's putting woes are at Luke List levels which mean even a field-leading tee-to-green display at Bay Hill isn't enough to sway me, whereas Tom Hoge certainly has the putter firing and it was the only club to keep him from sticking around longer last year, when leading at halfway. He's easy to underestimate but a good fit for Sawgrass.
Justin Suh and Davis Riley are two likeable debutants and the former in particular carries appeal on the strength of his accuracy from the tee and quality approach work, and Robby Shelton is a former winner of the Junior PLAYERS who I could see continuing his steadily progressive form.
The hardest to leave out though was Wyndham Clark, my player to follow in 2023 and one who keeps suggesting he'll do something special very soon. It would be beyond that were it to come at Sawgrass, however, given that his form figures read DQ-MC-MC, so despite more good signs at Bay Hill there's no compelling case for him.
It should be said that Lahiri's record was worse still before he finished second to Smith but, without the potential for another big draw bias and with the top players all sharp, the run of winners from inside the world's top 10 may well extend to a fourth year.
Posted at 1720 GMT on 06/03/23
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