Royal Portrush had to wait almost seventy years to host its second Open Championship, but only six for its third. That says much about the success of the 2019 edition because unless you are St Andrews, Opens simply do not come around this often. Everyone who was there six years ago and is there this week will be relishing the opportunity to do it all again.
For Shane Lowry, that applies in a literal sense and will require him to somehow recreate the magic. For Rory McIlroy, it means redemption. There was a sense of something otherworldly about the 148th Open Championship and nothing encapsulates it better than McIlroy departing on Friday and wishing his friend the best, before Lowry produced one of the finest Open rounds in memory the very next day having picked up the baton.
Not everyone will have relished a Sunday spent wondering how far Lowry would win by, not least those closest behind, but Portrush was about as joyous a place as I can remember being that weekend. The Open had come back at long last to Northern Ireland and those across the island made it a roaring success, even without McIlroy. Portrush itself could not have been more welcoming; no town could've done it better.
Six years might be a short time in terms of Open rotation but still plenty has changed. McIlroy, for starters, has finally ended a major drought which somehow doubled in length first. Tiger Woods is not here, but his heir apparent is, and his name is not McIlroy. Scottie Scheffler is now a three-time major champion, halfway towards matching McIlroy's set, and the clear best player in the game. And then there's LIV Golf.
These details of the game as it is today help colour the tournament, yet the Open, like the Masters and the Ryder Cup, sits above them all. Back at Portrush, this end of the major championship season comes too soon, but maybe it is better after all that we end on a high. Whether someone dazzles in the way that Lowry did or a dozen contenders battle it out on Sunday, be sure to enjoy every moment.
With Wentworth form of 2-2-4, 2025 majors form of 14-8-7, 11th here in 2019 and a Green Jacket safely tucked away in the closet, Jon Rahm was the closest I came to a selection at the front of the market. We were on him last year when he stayed on for seventh and in total, he's been selected on these pages for five of the six majors he's played since his shock departure to LIV Golf.
No wonder he appealed to me, then, but 11/1 for an Open where rain is all but guaranteed and a draw bias can always emerge just isn't quite big enough. So much has to go right in order to win a Claret Jug and I simply prefer to take bigger prices and bet each-way, which we were able to do at a massive 25/1 at Troon. He's answered some questions since then but isn't winning often and can be left alone on balance.
My favourite bet is ROBERT MACINTYRE who fits the bill in so many ways.
The Scot isn't in quite the same form as a year ago but arriving at Troon on the back of an emotional, draining Scottish Open win, which he celebrated long into the night, was always going to be a big challenge and I thought he did well to make the cut on balance.
That took his record in the Open to five appearances, five cuts made, and with a Scottish Open victory to his name there's no doubting the fact that this kind of golf suits. What's more, his best effort so far still came back on his debut in 2019 when, a rookie on the DP World Tour, he started strongly and finished with a brilliant 68 for sixth place.
MacIntyre then shot the low round of the day on Saturday of the following Open two summers later, backing it up to finish eighth having made the cut on the number, and having again scraped through at St Andrews he advanced 30-odd spots for a respectable finish at a course which probably plays slightly less to his strengths.
Only at Hoylake did he really disappoint but remember that was four days after McIlroy had ripped his heart out with that birdie-birdie finish at The Renaissance, so suddenly he's never looked better prepared than he is now: in generally excellent form, out of the spotlight last week, and just a month removed from a career-best major finish when runner-up at Oakmont.
Last year's missed cut was a poor effort but his run-up wasn't great whereas this time, he's had a chance to win at Oakmont, shown plenty of promising signs before a minor injury forced his withdrawal at the Travelers, then produced three good rounds in the Scottish Open where 11th place is in line with that the last three winners of this all achieved.
Right now there aren't many better iron players around so that's an enormous positive, but there is a pretty big negative which is why this was not a straightforward decision: his work around the greens, seldom good, occasionally destructive, and clearly his number one weakness.
Given what I've written about how Lowry separated himself and the general trend towards good chippers in 2019, it might seem odd to select Hovland and I toyed with leaving him out. But for my money he's the leading candidate with the most upside in his price and as he also fits the bill in every other way as a winner and major contender this year, I'm going to include him.
Time will tell whether or not there was an 'ideal' way to prepare for the Open but while last year's was dominated by those who played in the Scottish Open, it's worth noting that in 2023 three of those who tied for second behind Harman had not. Neither had Lowry in 2019, remember, and with the Scottish so dominated by big hitters, I'm still on the fence as to whether that was a necessary warm-up.
Last year, RUSSELL HENLEY finished fifth having not played since the Travelers, that soon after seventh in the US Open, so he certainly knows this is a fine way to get ready as he's pretty much doing what he did then.
Henley was 10th in the US Open this time, that on the back of fifth in the Memorial, and after then finishing runner-up in the Travelers where he played in the final group alongside Fleetwood and champion Keegan Bradley, his current form is of a very high standard.
No wonder he's up to fifth in the world, or sixth by DataGolf's numbers, and he's so very similar to Fleetwood except that he's being dangled at a general 50/1 and as big as 66s with a couple of firms. To my eye that's plainly too big.
Henley looks a good fit, too. He is in fact the only player in this field who ranks inside the top 15 on the PGA Tour in both strokes-gained approach and strokes-gained around the greens, he's a supremely accurate driver, and his once excellent then awful putting has improved this year, helping him to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Fittingly that was largely thanks to a chip-in late in round three and as a recent major contender with a win under tough conditions to his name, plus a top-five finish in the Open just last year, it's really only because of the name, rather than the profile, that he's being quoted at such a big price.
And while Henley didn't qualify for the Open in 2019, he does have some experience of Portrush having played in the Palmer Cup here way back in 2010. He played really well, too, and whether or not that helps him, I like both last year's form plus a strong start at Birkdale in 2017, where just like Portrush approach shots have to come in high rather than along the ground as can be the case elsewhere.
Perhaps he'll suffer for not having played in Scotland but he's proven that it can be done and simply looks overpriced.
There's a similar case for Sepp Straka, another whose profile isn't flashy but whose results most certainly are. He's won twice this year, one of them at Lowry's expense, and followed his runner-up finish at Hoylake with 22nd at Troon. That's a solid Open profile and maybe it's a good thing that his short-game did much of the work last week as that would be the main concern with him.
Straka made the shortlist along with Patrick Cantlay and Sam Burns, Americans you can most certainly argue are priced on nationality rather than skill. Cantlay's issues over short putts are just enough to put me off while Burns has never appealed to me as an Open type, but having been seven-over through 11 holes last year was somehow second after 54, before leading at that stage at Oakmont. He's getting close.
I considered Hideki Matsuyama, whose iron play has been right back to its best and another winner this year, but instead will roll the dice with NICK TAYLOR at three-figure prices.
Taylor has some negatives attached as his majors record had been hopeless until he fared just a little better at Oakmont, but he is a former world number one amateur who has gone on to win five PGA Tour titles including one in each of the last three seasons.
He's had a bit of luck but he has something about him too and what's certain is that he comes here in form, with seven top-25 finishes in his last eight starts. Four of his last five appearances have seen him feature in the top 10 after either round two or three and the exception was in the US Open, where he was 11th through 54 holes and in with a chance of placing.
Quality with his irons (11th for the season) and above average around the greens, he's a nice statistical fit and he's also accurate off the tee. On that score, the rain that's set to fall may change things but in general terms, this is the best major for accurate drivers, as evidenced by the likes of Harman, Morikawa, Molinari and Stenson in recent years.
Taylor definitely has the ability, the nous, the game and the form to contend for a major and this is the one where his lack of pop from the tee ought not to be a big negative. So far he's missed both cuts but neither was a disaster and just maybe he'll take to Portrush at the first time of asking, having produced top-10 tee-to-green displays three times in his last five starts.
The latest of those saw him lead the entire field in the Travelers and I doubt there have been many periods during which he's been so pleased with his game. This is his best chance yet to prove that he's up to it and I'll gladly roll the dice.
Posted at 1900 BST on 14/07/25
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