Time may prove that trying to get Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay beat in The American Express was something of a fool's errand. Rahm started with a round of 62 on his way to victory here in 2018, Cantlay closed with a 61 when runner-up a year ago, and both blew away the cobwebs with similarly strong starts to the campaign in Hawaii. They're ranked first and fourth in the world and the next man in the list concedes the benefit of a run-out, with Scottie Scheffler appearing for the first time since the Hero World Challenge.
With star names in action across both of the main men's tour events and the LPGA Tournament of Champions thrown in for good measure, there will be punters playing cross doubles and trebles in the hope that class counts. There may even be some who are willing to throw in Paul Casey, a 5/2 chance to win in Singapore, and it's certainly easy to envisage a week which runs to form. Jim Furyk on the Champions Tour for the five-fold, anyone?
The main threat in Abu Dhabi comes in the form of the weather, but here in the California desert there's nothing significant to hold against the favourites. If anything, the multi-course format and addition of amateurs adds some volatility at least, and with La Quinta back alongside PGA West's Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament courses, the winner will have to demonstrate a little more flexibility after last year's two-course edition.
Ancer has placed here in each of the last two renewals and having sided with him at the same price in 2021, I want to give him another go. He's improved since, winning a World Golf Championship title and competing with the world's best in events including the CJ Cup, played on a desert course not dissimilar to these, and a second title may not be too far away.
It's fair to say it's been a slow start to the year but Kapalua isn't at all right for his game and while Waialae perhaps ought to be, it's so far foxed him. The Mexican has struggled badly on the greens in Hawaii but it's not been anything like as big an issue at PGA West, with his 2020 stats in particular of real encouragement.
Scoring on the Stadium Course has actually held him back in two subsequent visits but that means he's shown that he can handle all three and in finishing 17th and 21st, he's built himself a very solid bank of form here. Whether because of the courses or the format, we've seen many genuine specialists emerge down the years and along with Ancer, he looks like he could be another.
Missing Kim was the main regret of 2021, although I'm long past complaining given subsequent events which reached a new level of absurdity via Hideki Matsuyama's putter last week. Still, Kim had three paragraphs dedicated to him in last year's preview before pivoting to Zach Johnson, which was a very bad decision.
He could though pay us back as he's been driving the ball really well and key to getting him to produce one of his good weeks with his irons is often the venue. Kim is a real horses-for-courses player who has three top-fives in four returns since winning the Wyndham, started well in defence of his PLAYERS title and was ninth there last season, and had a top-10 finish to his name prior to collecting this title.
Fowler clearly comes with massive risks attached but we all saw how well he played on his last start in the desert, driving the ball impeccably and threatening to win for the first time since 2019. After that he was down the field in the ZOZO Championship before finishing T40 in Mexico but it all goes down as encouraging as he looks to get his career back on-track.
He's long been a brilliant desert golfer, winning the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in 2016, the Phoenix Open in 2019, going close at Redstone in Texas and reaching the semi-finals of the Match Play when it was at Dove Mountain in Arizona. Way back at the start of his career he was second at Grayhawk, announcing himself on the PGA Tour.
Hickok lost that marathon play-off to Harris English at the Travelers and contended on his penultimate start in Houston, and with his 30th birthday approaching he looks quietly progressive.
Like Ancer, when he gains strokes off the tee it's because he hits fairways, something we saw when he played well for 21st last year and led the field in that department. Focus on the shorter courses where he can compete with driver and it becomes a real strength.
Riley has done really well in an unspectacular way so far this season, missing four cuts but bagging seventh place in Bermuda, 20th last week, 29th in Houston, and 56th at the Shriners where a poor final round cost him.
That Sunday 73 is his worst score so far, and three of his four missed cuts were on the number, meaning he was a single shot from advancing to the weekend. At 36th in scoring average he's right behind Buckley and Taylor Moore, and while this isn't a great metric it does demonstrate who has adapted, while underlining that Riley's results can probably be upgraded a little.
I'd be far less inclined to dish out success before it's earned but Riley is plainly considered to have a massive future, and after a really good effort at a course which requires experience last week, it would be no surprise were he to make the necessary step up and contend here.
Posted at 1145 GMT on 18/01/22
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