In the end, last week's Joburg Open went largely to the form book. The favourite won, the defending champion placed, and the new benchmark for these events was the 54-hole leader. Anyone glancing at the final leaderboard in years to come won't have to dwell long upon the page.
But the story of the tournament was the collapse of Thriston Lawrence, who went from odds-on champion elect to member of a flailing group of pursuers very quickly. In many respects it was a repeat of how he played during the final round of last year's South African Open, although not nearly as bad. The difference? He still won the latter.
Golf is extremely fickle, the margins between the winner and all those losers rarely significant. Last week, Lawrence couldn't rely on a class act like Dean Burmester giving him another opportunity. Last year, his final-round playing partners happened to be maidens from overseas, who found both the course and the occasion no less difficult to handle.
Aside from the simple fact that I am running out of things to write, I thought this was a point worth making. When we analyse the winners and the losers, assign imaginary ratings for how they perform under pressure, it might be best to temper extremes on both ends. Lawrence first became a winner when a tournament was abandoned at halfway, after all.
We'll come back to that, but first a word on the course, which is the starting point most weeks but especially so here. Blair Atholl claims to be the third longest in the world, and while its creator Gary Player has been known to claim a lot of things, this does appear to be correct. Thanks heavens there remain only a few which have deemed it necessary to break the 8,000-yard barrier, this one coming in at 8,161 from the tips.
It will be baking hot if the forecast holds and we're at almost 1,500m above sea level, so that yardage can effectively be reduced. At a course which is undulating, a notably difficult walk in fact, expect to see drives travel beyond 400 yards, particularly off the first tee but again later in the round.
Still, Lawrence and Clement Sordet are both strong drivers and with generally wide fairways to aim at, length seems a significant advantage. It was talked about during the Sunshine Tour event played here in 2021, where Lawrence carded a course record he held until Friday last year, and it was talked about throughout the SA Open, too.
It's certainly a good venue for Burmester to go hunting a double and while we did have some straight, shorter drivers on the fringes, the nature of Blair Atholl is ultimately the reason I can't go in again on Christiaan Bezuidenhout. His price has held up and I certainly would if they were playing at Houghton for a second week running, but on his debut here I don't want to be playing catch-up from the tee.
Instead, the vote goes to ZANDER LOMBARD, playing some of the best golf of his life right now and likely to be advantaged by the course.
Lombard improved upon his Joburg Open effort a year ago, despite not having played the Sunshine Tour event here. As has been the case down the years he paid the price for one major mistake and it came at just the wrong time, the three shots he dropped on the final hole of round two taking him from the fringes of contention to out of it altogether.
Otherwise he played well and his form upon returning is much better, demonstrated by three bogey-free rounds last week and the signs he showed in Dubai before it. To my eye he didn't putt as well as he can at Houghton but if anything his occasional wildness off the tee proved too big a hurdle to clear at a tighter, shorter course, as well as the odd duffed chip.
Ferguson has been playing superbly despite carrying a cold putter for much of the year. When the putts have dropped he's generally been right in the mix and, with a strong record in South Africa, that will likely be the case again.
But while his accurate game might help avoid trouble spots at times, he's far less explosive than Schmid and that tips the scales in favour of the German, who also has the advantage of a previous spin around here having been an excellent fourth a year ago.
Bossing the par-fives throughout that debut, Schmid helped demonstrate what an extra gear off the tee can do around a course with five of them, and that was despite his form having been poor for a while. Back then he'd gone 59-MC-MC-61-MC-MC to begin life on the PGA Tour; this time he's done much better, with a couple of solid performances to go with third place in Bermuda.
I wrote last week that standout quotes of 40/1 forced a second glance given the class of this former Masters champion, despite a quiet year on the LIV Golf circuit, but that I'd sit and wait for signs of promise given that not only was he ninth at Blair Atholl last year, but he used to live at the course and has a round of 60 in the books.
Schwartzel didn't necessarily show those obvious signs of promise, but missing the cut by a single shot might be even better. It means we don't have to suffer a shorter price, the opposite in fact, and a second-round 68 on his first start in a number of weeks might suggest he isn't too far away at all.
Schott was a comfortable winner in the end despite a third-round 75, the worst of anyone in the eventual top 20. That tells you how dominant he was over the other five rounds in Spain, and coming through that serious test of fortitude will do him wonders going forward.
Considered by some to be the best young talent in Germany at the moment, Schott will hope to do as his friend Nick Bachem did and get off the mark in South Africa. Like Bachem, the course should help, because he's an enormous driver who showed up at Green Eagle last summer, the longest they play in Europe.
Ko was a good 30th on his debut in this event having opened up with rounds of 69 and 66 to lie fifth at halfway. It was also his first taste of DP World Tour contention and came after he'd been 66th at Houghton a week earlier, that course far less likely to play to his strengths.
Missing the cut by two in Joburg therefore doesn't worry me and neither does the fact he failed by just one in Qatar, as a week earlier he'd finished seventh in Spain to seal his card for 2024. That mighty effort, which came from a share of the lead at halfway, must have taken something out of him, allowing for a mental letdown in Doha.
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