Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Soudal Open preview and best bets
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That other way requires far less speculation to explain. Horsfield, Fox and Paul ranked third, first and fourth respectively in strokes-gained approach and these were no freak performances, because Horsfield had already established himself among the Tour's best in that department, topping the table in 2021, while Fox and Paul went on to rank fourth and 12th in 2022.

First and foremost then we're looking for a quality iron player who can set up birdie chances on these small greens, while it'll help if they're a handy scrambler, too. Horsfield and Paul were second and third in the field and as well as speaking to their respective abilities with a wedge, this category is often dominated by players whose misses are not significant. Those who are in the fringe will get up and down more often than those further away.

The other point of order is that this is weaker than a year ago. Former host Pieters joins Horsfield and Bernd Wiesberger as LIV Golf absentees, Fox and Meronk are also missing, and so is Victor Perez. In geek terms, category 18 didn't all get a game last year; this time most of those in category 19 do. This is partly why Thomas Detry is a good 10 points shorter in the betting.

Detry is a player I've always liked and he can take heart from Wyndham Clark's display at the Wells Fargo. He's been competitive throughout this rookie PGA Tour season, playing well in a couple of elevated events and bagging six top-20 finishes, so dropping in grade has to be respected even if he's yet to win on the DP World Tour.

The problem is that approach play used to be a strength but has become a weakness and, with extra focus on him in the absence of Pieters, I'll be impressed and even a little bit surprised if he justifies favouritism. That first win will come, I feel sure of it, but perhaps when he's not so sharply in focus.

There are four good alternatives at the front of the betting, Paul among them, but I don't see anyone with a more compelling profile than inaugural Belgian Knockout winner ADRIAN OTAEGUI.

That was Otaegui's second win, the first having come on a similar parkland course in Germany, and he's added two more over the last three seasons, including his career highlight at Valderrama in October.

Winning by six there and four in Scotland previously, he's a player with a definite touch of class and I'd generally prefer him to the bang in-form Jorge Campillo, for all he's now a three-time winner himself.

Like Brun, Pepperell struggles off the tee, to the extent that he's often gone without a driver in the bag altogether. Not the most accurate and far from the longest, courses like Marco Simone leave him with a mountain to climb, so a top-10 finish goes down as hugely eye-catching.

It was his first appearance in three months, too, so ranking eighth in strokes-gained approach and showcasing a sharp short-game should set him up perfectly for a second go at Rinkven, his first ending in a missed cut during a spell of poor golf throughout the first six months of last season.

Things turned for Pepperell in July and he played superbly for the rest of the year, which makes his performances in 2023 all the more disappointing. However, we need to take into account the schedule: it was his first go at Yas Links, he's almost always played poorly in Dubai, his Al Hamra record now reads MC-MC-MC, and both Singapore and Italy were dominated by players who love thrashing driver.

Kinhult only played that course in Austria once and contended, while he produced some of the best golf in the field over the closing 54 holes for a top-10 at Valderrama behind Otaegui.

Throw in his British Masters win at a short course where Richie Ramsay has subsequently triumphed, plus excellent records in Kenya and in Crans, and Kinhult has a lovely profile for this course, his sole previous visit having come just a fortnight after his Hillside heroics and before his US Open debut.

As I wrote in a players to follow piece during the off-season, Tarrio is 'Otaegui without yet having cracked it on the greens'; short, accurate, deadly at times with his irons, which is what we saw in Rome as he led the field in strokes-gained approach.

Having also suggested it should be eyes out for Kenya should he travel there, quite why I wasn't on at a big price for third place isn't clear, and I don't want to make the same mistake now that he gets another go at the sort of technical, tree-lined course he so enjoys.

Brown is yet to miss a cut in what's been an excellent rookie campaign, and as we learn about him there are indications that courses like Rinkven should really appeal. He's 14th in fairways, 19th in scrambling and well above average with his irons, ranking 14th in strokes-gained approach last week in Italy.

Chances are he'll prefer this tighter test but it was only his short-game which caused issues at Marco Simone and that's so often been a strength, so if it's back on track then he can be expected to make another weekend and perhaps a real impression on the leaderboard.

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