Now that the Ryder Cup is behind us, the FedEx Cup Fall dominates the remainder of the PGA Tour calendar with six events in seven weeks that will determine who stays and who goes, whether that's to Qualifying School or back down to the Korn Ferry Tour.
We're one event in and, perhaps fittingly, it was won by someone who couldn't alter their status for 2024. Sahith Theegala finished 31st in the FedEx Cup and in 31st he shall remain, as those inside the top 50, should they elect to play in these events, are frozen until January and the beginning of the new season.
Among the assembled field for the Sanderson Farms Championship, Emiliano Grillo, Eric Cole, Lee Hodges, Adam Svensson and Tom Hoge are in that bracket and it'll be interesting to see if it proves advantageous as this new era evolves, but favourite is Ludvig Aberg, the Ryder Cup record-breaker who will earn plenty of starts due to that alone, but who officially still has a bit to do in order to pick and choose his schedule.
The German didn't choose to take out DP World Tour membership this year despite performing to a level which should've had him on the Ryder Cup radar, perhaps a reflection of the fact that the United States has been home for a long time now.
Jaeger went to college in Tennessee and now lives there, so playing in Mississippi is probably to his advantage and while his putting numbers are pretty even regardless of the surface, this year all of his best work has come away from poa annua – hence it's easy enough to excuse a bad week on the greens at Silverado last time.
Otherwise, Jaeger's game remained in the sort of shape it's been in for months. He's not missed a cut since mid-April and has become one of the most reliable ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, some achievement for a player who once said that chipping are putting were his strengths. Bar a strange performance at the Charles Schwab, he's been a tee-to-green machine in 2023.
Among this field he's first in that category over the last 50 rounds and nobody has played to a higher standard over the last 24, short-game included, so while it might seem strange to see his name towards the front of a market, he's earned it.
Jaeger's course record shows three top-30s in his last four visits and in each of the last two years it's been those old chipping and putting strengths that have kept him on the fringes of contention, so with his improved long-game in mind it looks an ideal fit at the right time and in the right sort of company.
He has correlating form via the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Wyndham Championship and the Honda, the latter two of course involving bermuda greens, and is on record in stating he's 'happy here' and 'likes the golf course'. Back him to show it at anything bigger than 16s.
I was really keen on BEAU HOSSLER last time and on the face of it he was disappointing, yet on the other hand he finished 30th driving the ball appallingly – and I think this is probably further evidence that he's as good as he's ever been right now.
Before the Fortinet, Hossler had been driving the ball really well, gaining strokes off the tee in every single start since the Heritage in April, and on reflection it might just be the nature of Silverado that was the issue. Hossler's off-the-tee rankings there now read 70th, 71st and 62nd.
Both return to action having been absent since the Playoffs and that's a potential negative, but where Riley is concerned I draw encouragement from Theegala's victory and that earns him the vote.
Theegala said at the Fortinet, played in his home state, that the combination of it being an important event to him and having missed East Lake so narrowly meant he got straight back to work and felt razor-sharp, keen to capitalise on a big opportunity which he went on to do in some style.
Well, Riley calls this, his hometown event, his 'fifth major' and it seems fair to assume that he'd have played in California if he felt that was necessary in order to prepare. Presumably he's been working extremely hard at home and it's even possible he's been to Jackson for a scouting trip.
This proven PGA Tour winner is back to full fitness now and it's showing, with two top-10s, two narrow missed cuts and finishes of 16th and 30th making up his last six appearances across both main tours.
He's driving it to a very good standard and his approach work has been even better since the start of September, ranking 18th, 13th and fifth, so while his run of results is regressive on the face of it (8-16-30) that simply comes down to the putter, which was cold in the Fortinet.
That in fact was ideal, as it gave substance to some encouraging ball-striking numbers in July and August, without seemingly convincing many people that his game has turned a corner – hence odds of 400/1 in places.
Schwab though has now hit quality approaches for three events running, very much his bread and butter when on song, and led the field in greens hit there at Silverado. Ranking fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green, a good week with the putter and he'd have hit the frame.
That club has been poor for a while and there's no guarantee a change in surface sparks improvement, but it has been a strength in the past and with his long-game ticking over nicely now, he'll have had plenty of time to work on his putting over the last couple of weeks.
Having studied in Tennessee and since made Florida his base, bermuda greens might just help and although he's yet to play well here, he's only arrived in good form once and missed the cut on the number because of some anomalous around the green stats.
It's the sort of course he's tended to enjoy in the past and Schwab, a big talent who is still young at 28, could be capable of earning back his playing rights from 134th in the FedEx Cup standings.
"Long game was as solid as I expect it to be, which was nice to see after so many months (years) of struggling. An encouraging side note for me is that I lead the field in greens in regulation. Lets go!" was his Instagram reaction to that step forward at Silverado and at 200/1-plus, he's worth chancing to take another here at Jackson Country Club.
Posted at 1030 BST on 03/10/23
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