Confirmation bias is widespread in golf as in life, and there are few who are immune to it. Spaniards all have good hands, so the commentator will say as Sergio Garcia zips a wedge close to the hole, forgetting the skulled bunker shot by Rafa Cabrera Bello moments earlier. Left-handers all putt well is a particular favourite of mine, because it is even more bonkers, and overlooks one of the most successful left-handers of the last 15 years in Bubba Watson.
But sometimes, sometimes, having a point of view confirmed by subsequent events is less confirmation bias, more having been right the first time, and that's how I saw things in the Ras al Khaimah Championship last week. Missing Nicolai Hojgaard at 33/1 was beyond frustrating and, to be frank, bloody stupid, but the conjecture of the preview proved correct, and the reasons for that appear sound.
My view was that Al Hamra is a course where the best drivers should dominate. That was supported by three events on the Challenge Tour, bossed by the best at the time on that circuit, and it shaped my staking plan. Come Sunday, the best driver in the field finished first, and the second best finished second. Driving is one of golf's more predictable elements, and in separating themselves both Nicolai Hojgaard and Jordan Smith were simply doing what they do best.
Meronk was 22/1 generally at the time of publication last week, and this time there's plenty of 28, 30 and even 33/1 available, despite the absence now of Bernd Wiesberger. That looks a generous reaction given that his mid-table finish can largely be put down to a couple of shockers around the green, which in contrast to driving is hard to predict and rarely worth dwelling on.
At the time of departure, Langasque was the third-ranked driver in the field, behind Hojgaard and Smith. He was also a solid 30th in strokes-gained approach, but ranked 132nd (of 132 players) around the greens, and was unable to save himself with the putter (110th).
Again, around-the-green stats are volatile, and in Langasque's case he simply hit a couple of particularly costly shots. The first came in round one, when he took four to get down having been in a greenside bunker at the par-three fourth hole. Then, in round two, he was greenside at a par-five but pitched across the green into water, running up an eight which undermined his progress. The Frenchman shot a seven-birdie 69 that day and it was a shot too many. Across these two holes he took 13 shots when on another day he would've needed only seven.
Having also made six at the par-five eighth from the middle of the fairway, it was an extreme example of making the worst score possible and means we ought to give him another chance. Had Langasque been poor off the tee then it would've been easy to move on, but he did all the things necessary to build a platform for a successful week, and may well have climbed the leaderboard had he advanced to round three.
Coetzee is capable with mixing it with the best of these and though he's been pretty quiet since winning the Portugal Masters as a 14/1 shot in 2020 (Tommy Fleetwood the only player ahead of him in the betting), I'm hopeful that he dropped a big hint in what was his first look at this course.
The South African produced his second best tee-to-green display since that victory in Portugal, the other coming when 10th in Saudi Arabia last year, only to suffer his worst putting week since last August. Typically one of the best on the circuit in that department, such blips are rare, and there's no reason to believe these greens foxed him. He just had an off week which will likely be left behind.
Laporta was second in strokes gained off-the-tee at the Dubai Championship last year and finished second to JB Hansen, while a year earlier he ranked fourth in the same category when also finishing runner-up.
In Portugal last year a combination of quality driving and putting saw him take seventh, and he was sixth in the high-class BMW PGA Championship thanks to quality driving and approach play.
Kruyswijk is exactly the type of golfer who can bag the odd par-four eagle and generally tear apart the scoring holes. The 29-year-old, who is still improving, is a massive hitter and ranked 23rd in strokes-gained off-the-tee last season, three places ahead of Nicolai and just behind Smith.
Unlike those two he failed to shine last week and wasn't ever close to making the cut after an opening 77, but Friday saw him card a four-under 68 where his sole dropped shot came when attempting to drive the green at the short fifth hole.
However, a second-round 68 last week saw him drive the ball really well and play his final seven holes in five-under, perhaps building some confidence which he can bring with him to this repeat tournament.
Still retaining enough power to attack Al Hamra, Warren showed with an out-of-the-blue ninth place in Spain a few months ago that he only needs to avoid the big miss off the tee to be competitive in a good field, and I like his correlating form in Portugal where he led at halfway in 2016 and was second a year later.
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