The DP World Tour concludes its Middle East swing with the Qatar Masters and frankly, after last week's event in Bahrain, I don't mind the upcoming week off between this event and the Kenya Open.
Following Ivan Cantero for a third week running paid off as he placed just as he had seven days earlier, but the powerful youngster missed the play-off by a single shot after making bogey at the last following a few missed chances late on. That play-off only took place because Pablo Larrazabal, a confident pre-final round selection at a generous 15/2, three-putted the 18th hole when he had two putts for the title.
Sure enough, Larrazabal then lost the play-off to a brilliant birdie from Laurie Canter, selected last time at 66/1 but left out in this weaker event at 20s. Canter, who I've followed pretty religiously since 2020 and who was unluckily beaten by rank outsider Ross McGowan when we were on at a nice price in Italy that year, has now won twice since, delivering on long-held promise. Both times, we happened to be on the runner-up.
I won't hold it against a fabulous player and isn't it great to see someone like him work it all out in their 30s. This game is colourful and never straightforward. For every 20-something superstar there's someone trying to put it all together. And for every nervous maiden who loses their grip on a tournament on the 18th hole, there's a proven, prolific veteran like Larrazabal to show that it really can happen to anyone.
Onto Doha then and the formula here used to be relatively straightforward. Time and again down the years, winners were Open champions or contenders or at the very least players who've shown top-level form on links courses in the UK and Ireland, the logic being that the wind usually blows here and that places an emphasis on quality approach play and a tidy short-game, two must-haves in most Open Championships.
Chris Wood, Branden Grace, Eddie Pepperell, Paul Lawrie, Sergio Garcia, Thomas Bjorn, Henrik Stenson – all are examples of this connection. But you see it too through those who almost won in Qatar, like former Amateur Championship winner Mikko Ilonen, Scottish Open winner Rafa Cabrera Bello, Dunhill Links pair Thorbjorn Olesen and Oliver Wilson, and St Andrews specialist Louis Oosthuizen.
The trouble is that the DP World Tour is undeniably weaker than it used to be and while that has helped produce so many thrilling finishes that we've now come to expect the unexpected, it means we're without much major championship form to go on. Instead, some of the best links clues hide beneath the surface, such as the fact that former champion Ewen Ferguson won the Boys' Amateur at Hoylake back in 2013.
In general I'd say this is less about quality driving than the other three desert courses we've been to lately. There are still four par-fives and a now customary driveable par-four to go at, but everyone in the field can reach the 16th while the ninth, sadly, is seldom played from a forward tee. That means everyone is laying up and with the shallow, raised 10th green especially hard to hit in two, it is more about wedges than the big stick.
Accepting that he can be a little difficult to win with, JORDAN SMITH does look to hold an outstanding chance in what is the weakest of this opening run of DP World Tour events.
With Patrick Reed and David Puig both out and the only Olesen in this field named Jacob not Thorbjorn, this really isn't strong and the two most likely contenders are Smith and last week's winner, Canter.
Both are somewhat similar in the way they go about things, generally pounding greens and left to hope the putter is warm enough, but it's Smith who boasts the strongest record at Doha thanks to a pair of top-six finishes in five visits so far.
As you might expect, all have been powered by his long-game and when he putted to just a decent standard (36th) on his last visit he had a chance to win, whereas the year before his ball-striking was actually a little better only for a hopeless week on and around the greens to result in a missed cut.
Dean was one of the stories of last season, turning his career around via Qualifying School having at one stage been a supermarket delivery driver while still trying to pursue his dream.
He made it all the way to the DP World Tour Championship thanks to five top-five finishes across a variety of courses, showcasing a strong all-round game which at various points saw him rank inside the top 10 in each of the four key statistical categories.
The one thing missing was consistency but that looks like it's coming based on fifth in the Ras al Khaimah followed by 13th at Royal GC, where like Smith he was on the wrong side of the draw. Dean played the final three rounds in 12-under and after a bogey-free second round, dropped just three shots during a breezy weekend.
The event returned to Doha afterwards so he had a tough job on as a defending champion who had to deal with a change in course, but after that modest effort he's been 27th and sixth subsequently, his approach work excellent both times.
Significantly I think, Rozner was struggling with driver ahead of both of these appearances and it showed, whereas this time he tees off with that club having been much better again lately, enough to help him to secure one of the PGA Tour cards offered up via the Race to Dubai in November.
Although unable to back-up a third-round 64 then, a tie for 16th proved to be one of his strongest performances of the season. It was five years until he returned, missing the cut during a miserable run of form, but 27th in 2019 plus 27th again in 2023 both confirm that he's well suited to Doha.
Indeed that effort six years ago was his best of the season to date while his more recent visit followed a withdrawal, so I don't think it's unreasonable to state that he's never been in better shape ahead of this event than he is right now.
Last time out, Saddier was 13th in the Ras al Khaimah Championship following a return missed cut in Dubai which was all to do with his short-game. He'd ended 2024 with 11th in the Australian Open and the previous season finished with 19th in Abu Dhabi, where some of the best players in Europe were in the mix and where wind at Yas Links is always a factor.
Both players went to Korea in need of something special and duly found it and we've seen what it's done for the hugely talented Cantero since then, but he's now just a bit shorter than I'm willing to go at a course less vulnerable to his driving and I'll switch to the more experienced Gouveia under what could be ideal conditions.
He has form here courtesy of seventh place in a particularly strong renewal on debut and also has a good record in his native Portugal, which definitely correlates well with Doha. He's playing well, too, and since keeping his card with third place in Korea has been 24th in the Aussie PGA, missed the cut a week later, then contended in the Dubai Desert Classic to begin the new season.
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