You don't have to listen to Jon Rahm speak for very long to understand how much he cares about the history of the sport he plays, and he's going for another slice of it in the Open de Espana.
Rahm has won the event three times already, twice here at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, and one more will see him surpass Seve Ballesteros. It seems inevitable and there are those who would use similar language to describe his chance this week – hence odds of just 2/1 virtually across the board.
On a strictly numbers basis, that price is perfectly justified. Rahm is three from seven in Spain and has only played poorly at Valderrama. He's won eight times in just 23 DP World Tour starts, a few of them in much stronger fields than this. And his aggregate margin of victory in two wins at this course, one he hardly knew before, is 11 shots.
Every golfer is vulnerable to the sport that so often humbles them, and Rahm did trade odds-on during the first round two years ago only to finish 17th, but none of us would be at all surprised were he to make history. Sky Bet offer just 5/1 that he wins by three or more shots and while these are numbers that don't quite make sense in the world of golf betting, they're hard to argue with.
Punters will have the option to bet without him if they wish and they always have the option to not bet at all, which was my first instinct. Rahm, after all, looked back to his very best at the Ryder Cup, has had time to recover, and will not be found lacking for focus once tee peg is in the ground.
There is though one potential chink in the armour: how much has Rahm played since Rome? However desperate he is to win this title for a fourth time, surely he put the clubs away for at least a few days. And when Rahm did trade odds-on and fail to sustain his effort in this event, it was immediately after the Ryder Cup. In 2018, following his debut in Paris, he returned with rounds of 73-76 in China and was 16 shots off the halfway lead.
Either way, we profited from 125/1 shot Zander Lombard last year, from Adri Arnaus at 60/1 in 2021 and from Nacho Elvira at 125/1 in 2018, all sent off at inflated odds thanks to Rahm, and there is at least an angle to pursue. Club de Campo has been all about the scoring holes, namely three par-fives and the driveable 18th, and its generally sparse rough has given the big hitters a big advantage.
With scrambling also key, it's no wonder Min Woo Lee took to this place on debut and that is a formula with the potential to help uncover some of the key dangers to the favourite. Hit it long, chip and putt your way to cheap birdies and the odd eagle, and worry about the Basque behemoth if and when it comes to that on Sunday.
Justin Rose is half tempting as a win-only bet, buoyed no doubt by his Ryder Cup heroics and a former winner in Spain who has the tools for this course, but beyond him the front of the market really didn't appeal much.
My favourite selection is NICK BACHEM, who blasted his way to the Jonsson Workwear Open title for us back in March and may find Club de Campo equally to his liking.
Bachem is one of the most powerful players on the DP World Tour, ranking fourth in driving distance, and he's been back to his best off the tee lately. In Prague that meant fourth place, his best effort since winning, and he was seventh at the K Club soon after – a stronger field than this headed by Rory McIlroy.
For both him and Bachem that's about as good as I could've expected and this monster hitter should be far more at home in Spain, both figuratively and literally given that he comes from Madrid, making this a proper home game.
Del Rey missed the cut in 2019 but was an amateur at the time and, since turning professional in 2020, he's hinted at the ability which saw him produce some outstanding results at college in Arizona, where he attempted to fill the Spanish void left behind by Rahm and was a teammate of last week's Asian Tour winner, David Puig.
Perhaps del Rey and Rahm will play a practise round together and the magic will rub off on the younger man but regardless, he's been ticking over pretty nicely, had a taste of contending when third in Singapore back in February, and will find this as suitable as anything he's played all year.
Du Plessis in particular looks in excellent nick having been 10th at Wentworth and 14th in the Dunhill Links recently. He's made his last 10 cuts on the DP World Tour and is a long, accurate driver with the game for this course, especially now he's found something with the putter.
Having contended en route to eighth last year we know Club de Campo suits and that came after a missed cut at St Andrews, whereas this time he carded three excellent, under-par rounds across all three courses and signed off with an eagle at Kingsbarns for a top-15 finish.
Levy has been 15th and 12th in two starts at Club de Campo, carding rounds of 64 and 65 along the way. He'd missed four cuts coming in back in 2019 and was also arriving off a missed cut in 2021, yet on both occasions was able to click back into gear at a course he clearly loves.
On the first occasion he ranked fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green while on the second he again struck the ball well, particularly off the tee, so a bit more luck on the greens was the only difference between missing the top 10 and landing the each-way money.
The Italian didn't do much wrong last week and once again his long-game was good, albeit that comment is based on 18 holes at St Andrews where strokes-gained data was collected.
Still, we know from his title defence in France and from top-20s in Ireland and Switzerland that he's hitting it well and with the exception of Wentworth, he's been regularly threatening to put four rounds together ever since finishing with a flourish in Japan and Korea back in April.
Although he missed the cut here in 2021, Migliozzi drove it well and simply holed nothing at a time when his long-game was very much in and out and I want to give him another chance, based on a strong record at altitude (Kenya, Crans) and form that ties in quite nicely with Arnaus.
Sixth at Valderrama and a runner-up at similar altitude in Spain on the Alps Tour, the cocksure youngster has to be worth another try at similar odds to last week even if he has tested our patience somewhat. One more go.
Posted at 0915 BST on 10/10/23
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