Greg Norman is a difficult man to keep out of the news, from his involvement with the House of Saud to his brazen attempt to . Now, as the PGA Tour heads south for the Mexico Open, here he is again (I admit, this is a stretch, but you try writing 100 betting ledes per year): Vidanta Vallarta becomes the third Norman-designed course on the 2022 schedule, and poses a few difficult questions for punters to answer.
Opened in 2015, this resort course is wide off the tee and, at 7,456 yards, it's also long. The impact of that length might be intensified if forecast 20mph winds play their part, and the paspalum grass which we also see in some other events held away from mainland USA should ensure that balls stop close to where they land. That's what tends to happen at El Camaleon, the Norman-designed host of Mexico's established event, the Mayakoba Classic, and however hard the wind blows it helps keep these players comfortable.
As you'll see with a quick glance at the betting, Jon Rahm is the class act, even more so following Daniel Berger's withdrawal. There are just five other members of the world's top 50 taking part in one of the weakest events you're ever likely to see at this level, and Rahm's one-in-three strike-rate on the DP World Tour confirms that he's been very good at taking advantage of such opportunities.
On the flip-side, the Spaniard isn't quite at his best, and his career strike-rate of around one-in-11 confirms that the layers have taken a defensive view. If you're going to back a 5/1 shot in golf tournament featuring more than 140 players, you want to know everything. Heading to a new course, three weeks from when we last saw Rahm in action, we simply don't. It only takes one player to have the week of their lives to send such a wager up in smoke.
Abraham Ancer (20/1) and Carlos Ortiz (66/1) represent the pick of the home challenge, and both have contended for Mayakoba honours. Of the pair, Ortiz is an ambassador for the sponsors and has played a lot of golf here, something which calls to mind Jason Kokrak's victory in the CJ Cup back in 2020. Unfortunately, he has also missed all four cuts since watching friend Joaquin Niemann win at Riviera, so this comes at a bad time. Ancer meanwhile plays out of the Norman-designed TPC San Antonio and he's shown signs of life of late, enough to suggest he can raise his game.
Both have to be respected in this field but the biggest threats to Rahm are GARY WOODLAND and TONY FINAU, whose power looks set to be a big advantage given the set-up of this course.
Not only is it scorecard-long, but there's a short par-four for big-hitters to attack off the tee, and five par-fours between 475 and 520 yards. There's just a single par-four under 415 yards, and that's the one these two should be able to attempt to drive throughout the tournament.
Woodland was selected on these pages for the Valspar at 60/1 (21st) and the Texas Open at 35/1 (8th), and given the drop in grade I'm happy to go in again at 20/1 and bigger. He has after all been dropping hints all spring, and if you're worried about his Masters missed cut then don't be: he was the worst putter in the field, and continued to hit the ball nicely at a course he's never been able to quite figure out.
Similar comments apply to Sawgrass, where he missed the cut in The PLAYERS, but away from these elite events on unsuitable courses he's been one of the form players on the PGA Tour, finishing fifth in the Honda Classic, fifth again at Bay Hill, 21st having faded at the Valspar, and then eighth when in the mix again in the Texas Open, at a course designed by Norman.
He's been below his best this season, failing to do as many expected and kick on from winning The Northern Trust last August, but I don't think he's that far away based on a string of mid-pack finishes lately. He certainly hit the ball nicely in the Texas Open having improved throughout the Match Play beforehand, and there was no disgrace in fading from 10th to 35th at Augusta where he continued to drive the ball well.
If Finau's approach play is back where it was in Texas, where he ranked 12th and also improved on the greens, then he can have a big say having shown good form on paspalum grass in the Bahamas, in Mexico, in Puerto Rico, and when eighth, putting pretty well, in last year's PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.
Jones is known for being the quickest player around but he boasts underestimated power in that brisk swing of his, ranking 34th in distance this year and 40th last. Right now his whole game looks in good shape as he's gaining strokes in all departments bar putting, which hasn't typically been a problem area for him and showed improvement in Texas last time.
There at TPC San Antonio, Jones finished runner-up to JJ Spaun and could well have won, and I'm surprised that performance hasn't captured the imagination of punters in the same way his third place in Hawaii did at the start of the year. Back then, Jones was backed off the boards a week later, starting a much stronger Sony Open as a 33/1 chance only to disappoint supporters with a missed cut.
Seventh at San Antonio and second place at El Camaleon stand out but he's also been runner-up in both Puerto Rico and Bermuda and this is very much his level, having won the Greenbrier Classic some seven years ago.
Lee hasn't kicked on from that but he shaped better than his finish when selected at big odds for the Valspar, and last week in New Orleans played really nicely in the fourballs only to miss the cut alongside Sangmoon Bae, who has been struggling for a long time, his last stateside top-20 coming a year ago despite plying his trade on the Korn Ferry Tour these days.
It looked like Lee's long game was very solid, as it was early on at Copperhead, and as a player I still rate, who has form in the places I was looking, he is backed to return to the form which saw him go 2-7 across a pair of similar events in November last year.
Finally, PAUL BARJON is well worth a dart at huge odds.
A big-hitter who has produced a couple of brilliant driving displays during his rookie season, Barjon should be suited by this challenge. He's been second at TPC San Antonio on the Korn Ferry Tour, too, and on two previous trips to Mexico he's been 59th (seventh at halfway) and second, losing a play-off back in 2020 on an extremely long course.
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