Jon Rahm arrived at the inaugural Mexico Championship amid arguably the biggest slump of his young career. Clinging onto the world number two slot, Rahm had gone a whopping six starts without contending, and when last seen had finished 27th in the Masters, his short-game in disarray.

His relative lack of confidence is why he stumbled rather than strode over the line, playing his final nine holes in level par. He would go on to suffer disappointing weeks in the remaining majors and fail to make an impact in the FedEx Cup. His victory at Vidanta Vallarta didn't solve everything, but it was the thing he could hold onto throughout a bad summer. Later, he'd face questions about a lacklustre year and point to wins in Mexico and then Spain as mitigating evidence.

Now, one year on, he's the Masters champion. Indisputably, he has been the best player in the sport over the past 12 months, winning seven times in total. Such is his status, it's not a surprise that opening prices of more than 3/1 have been taken. The surprise is that they existed in the first place.

Rahm went off around the 5/1 mark on his first visit to the course. Tony Finau returns having been adjusted from 22/1 to 8/1.

That's not to say I see great value in backing the favourite. Rahm was about the same price to win the Open de Espana, which ultimately required seeing off an improving Min Woo Lee, Matthieu Pavon, Edoardo Molinari and Zander Lombard. Here, there might only be one other truly elite player in the shape of Finau, but there are plenty of others with the ability to win on the PGA Tour, whether that's proven or otherwise.

If he has taken any time off following the RBC Heritage – Rahm joked that he would struggle because he's so addicted to playing golf – then he might not be the good-thing he looks. Remember, it did take him almost a year to win again after the US Open and while I doubt that'll be the case this time, this sport is harder than he's made it look. All major winners in 2022 took a while to win again.

And so to the course, designed by Greg Norman, which means you can play a fun game and try to spot his name on the PGA Tour website. It's a par 71 which is listed at 7,456 yards and ought to again be receptive. Trawl through last year's pressers and the word 'long' is in every last one of them, before we saw a leaderboard of power hitters emerge: Rahm, Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, Kurt Kitayama, and so on.

Brandon Wu and David Lipsky both managed to get involved too but players like them face an uphill battle. tells us that there were fewer shots from 75 to 175 yards than virtually anywhere else on the schedule; correspondingly, there were far more shots from upwards of that distance. Everyone was thrashing driver with impunity and then trying their best to set up genuine birdie chances from a long way away.

Players and bookmakers appear to have cottoned onto this fact, because the bigger names that are here all fall into the category of big-hitters.

Of course, it applies to Rahm and Finau, but also Wyndham Clark, GARY WOODLAND, Nicolai Hojgaard, Patrick Rodgers, Ben An, MAVERICK MCNEALY, BEAU HOSSLER and Taylor Pendrith, pretty much the top 10 names in the betting.

It seems likely that this group provides the winner and with cases there to be made for all of them, the value options in my eyes are the trio highlighted above.

Starting with McNealy, it's fair to say he'd have been much further up the betting at his best and, having said he's free of the fitness issues which kept him on the sidelines for a brief period earlier this year, I'm willing to chance him rediscovering his form.

He started the season as one of the best maidens on the circuit after a fine 2022 and when he began this year with seventh place in the Sony Open, he was as close to the world's top 50 as he's ever been. Unfortunately, after another solid effort at Torrey Pines, that's when injury struck.