Officially, there are four events remaining on the DP World Tour schedule, but for the majority of those in the field for the low-ranking Mallorca Golf Open, big things are needed in the first two in order to access the second.
For the top eight in the betting, playing opportunities aren't a problem. Three of them have won this season, tournament favourite Rasmus Hojgaard has done everything but, and Eddie Pepperell's sustained run of form has seen him climb to a position from which he's unlikely to miss the DP World Tour Championship in mid-November.
But you only have to get past them to suddenly arrive at players fighting for something, be it their place alongside Pepperell and co in Dubai, or even their playing status for 2023. This is the business end of the season all right, and anyone witness to Angel Hidalgo's teary reaction to securing his card should understand what it all means.
As these twin sensations continue to progress in the sport, we learn more and more about them, and for now it all makes sense. Rasmus's more rounded game makes him consistent, and his brother is right to admire how cool he is under the gun. That still applies even if he did open the door for Guido Migliozzi to smash his way through in Paris.
Nicolai's star quality comes from his extraordinary power but he does lack consistency, and you could say versatility. Both victories so far have come on courses where he can reach for driver upon driver, bring a par-four or two to its knees and generally bully both golf course and opposition, which he did to devastating effect in the Middle East back in February.
Marcel Schneider has been one of the quiet success stories of the year but withdrew from an event he says he loves last week because of a persistent cold. That's enough of a worry to overlook the German, while Romain Langasque's hints of form have been built on his short-game, with his ball-striking some way below where we'd expect it to be.
He's left out accordingly and I have to go back to ANDY SULLIVAN, a confident fancy in France two starts back before a nightmare start eventually resulted in him withdrawing from the tournament.
Sullivan put that behind him when 11th last week and it looks nothing more than a blip in an otherwise encouraging sequence. It happens, and I'd note that Ryan Fox was also poor that week before winning the Dunhill Links, while Adrian Otaegui, also selected in France, went on to miss the cut in Scotland before bouncing back in style.
If we look at O'Sullivan's body of work, we see someone who has made eight cuts in nine, Paris the exception, led after round one of the high-class BMW PGA Championship, and last week produced his best performance yet at Valderrama where he was 13th in strokes-gained off-the-tee and fifth with his approaches.
Putting has so often been a strength and there's nothing much to worry about in recent displays, nor is there in his around-the-green game, and Sullivan simply looks like a class act working his way back to form. He'll be desperate to reach Dubai, where he has a fine record, and has always been best under low-scoring conditions as we saw when he won at Hanbury Manor back in 2020.
For now the objective is keeping his card and last week saw him creep further away from the cut-off mark. At 109th he still has a job to do, however, and this next fortnight leaves him with no excuses given that one win in the Portugal Masters probably ought to be two. Conditions look ideal and if he can warm up that putter, watch him go.
Lewis contended when we were on at 160/1 in Italy, ultimately paying the price for being drawn with two elite players in round three. He just wasn't quite ready for a day alongside McIlroy and Fitzpatrick, the one-two on the Race to Dubai, and his Sunday rally came too late to hit the frame.
Subsequent events might suggest the flame has gone out but I'm not so sure. The Dunhill Links has never been a particularly good form guide and this year's renewal had a day's worth of added randomness courtesy of the weather, and since then Lewis bounced back from a slow start in Spain to shoot a rock-solid 68 on day two.
It wasn't quite enough after an off-day in round one but it was his first start in Madrid and I suspect this assignment should be far easier to get to grips with. We know he likes a low-scoring, resort-style test given both wins have come in the Portugal Masters and at 154th in the Race to Dubai, with no US status to fall back on, the time is now for this quality operator.
Lewis has done everything well in patches since returning from the USA and is just preferred to Kiradech Aphibarnrat, a player in a similar plight and having shown similar encouragement of late – including in the way he bounced back from taking 11 at the par-five 17th hole last Thursday.
The Thai might benefit from a weekend off having spoken of how exhausting he's found this year and a second-round 68 was admirable, but the extra power at Lewis's disposal swings it.
Indeed, power is part of the case for GAVIN GREEN, a prolific birdie-maker who almost won for us at 70/1 in the Czech Republic a couple of months ago and can be backed at the same price here.
Green took that cruel blow on the chin and I've been quite impressed by him since, making four cuts from four, closing with a 64 in Switzerland, sitting close to the places in Denmark, starting well in Italy, then battling to make the cut before another strong finish in France.
Matt's younger brother was a quality amateur and he's well and truly left behind some modest form out in Canada since coming to Europe, turning professional, and taking advantage of invites. Indeed he's been really impressive so far, making his last four cuts, all comfortably, and never finishing worse than 37th in this run.
That result came last week at Valderrama but the only thing regressing has been his putter, and it's far too soon to be worrying about that club. In fact we should take a positive view of his performance in Spain, at a course where his brother demonstrated just how quickly and how badly things can go wrong. Alex had previously been 28th in the Dunhill Links and 13th in France, with 27th in Italy coming in a much stronger field than we have here.
The Swede has positive memories of Mallorca having been seventh in the event last year, a performance which came out of nowhere. This time around there's some substance to his form, having been 22nd in Denmark, missed the cut on the number in Italy, then finished 39th in France and 27th in the Open de Espana.
Stepping down in grade, another small step forward puts him in the mix and this sequence of good results hasn't been freakish. He's simply begun to hit his irons really well from one week to the next, the surest way to bank nice cheques, and a continuation of that would make him interesting whether his power is particularly beneficial or not.
Sixth in Portugal is a form line I like as is eighth in the low-scoring Golf in Dubai Championship, while his record in Qatar (third and ninth in two of the last three) bodes well if the wind does arrive come the weekend.
Providing he's in the same sort of shape as when last seen a fortnight ago, Lemke ought to be around for us to put that theory to the test and he's always been a player of considerable ability, one I'm really keen to chance here.
Posted at 1725 BST on 17/10/22
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at and .