Since Tyrrell Hatton won the Dubai Desert Classic, a run of Middle East events on the DP World Tour has gone to three big hitters, two of whom thrashed at the ball with gay abandon, riding luck they'd created with their chutzpa. The other, Laurie Canter, was a little bit lucky as well, but you do have to be the one waiting for the leader to slip up and there he was thanks to another ball-striking masterclass in Bahrain.
Alejandro del Rey and Haotong Li are different in the way they go about things and in their own ways, both are among the most exciting players to watch on the circuit. Both were findable to some degree because of where they were playing (this writer was on them for the 2024 editions of the very same tournaments), their styles complemented by courses where power beats precision, and where there's nothing like the luck of the lie.
That makes the move to Nairobi for the Kenya Open one of the most dramatic of the season in terms of the contrast in styles required, because Muthaiga is everything that Al Hamra and Royal GC and Doha are not. At Muthaiga, you plot. If you try to get on the front foot, to use the altitude and the heat to cut corners, you'll probably find out the hard way that this old-fashioned golf course was made for an old-fashioned skill set.
Just look at the winners and those who've pushed them close. Darius van Driel is a fairways-and-greens golfer who got the better of Nacho Elvira, a bad driver but brilliant putter whose irons can match just about anyone else's at this level. Jorge Campillo is a better version of van Driel and Masahiro Kawamura is a worse version of Campillo. Before these, on the Challenge Tour, came wins for Lorenzo Gagli and Aaron Rai.
This is just such a different challenge for Li and I doubt he'll be quite so fortunate so while 2023 champion Jorge Campillo is of course respected, it's Soderberg who I consider the most likely contender.
The Swede endured an autumn slump last year, taking time away following his brutal week on home soil where he let slip a golden opportunity to win his second DP World Tour title, then struggling to recapture that form upon his return.
But since showing signs of improvement in November, he seems to have benefited from the fresh start a new year brings and in three appearances in the Middle East, his form figures read 31-5-24, latterly in Bahrain three weeks ago.
The Scot was right in the mix through 54 holes last year and eventually settled for seventh, having arrived following four mid-pack finishes in the Middle East.
Twelve months on and his form coming in reads similarly, with 27th in Dubai followed by 22nd and 34th in slightly weaker events. It was good to see him get closer to the lead in Bahrain and following the same path as last year, he should feel ready to step up in this company.
He's not necessarily one who has been sneakily showing promise on unsuitable courses as finishes of eighth and 14th across his last two starts is some of the strongest form in the field. The first came about thanks to a red-hot putter and he'd have had a chance in Qatar had it remained so, but this time the rest of his game impressed as he made a big move through the field on Sunday.
Schneider though should benefit from this type of test and he's got stacks of form to suggest as much, with top-10s to his name at Rinkven and Crans, plus second at Geneve and 14th at Adamstal. The latter two are used on the Challenge Tour and Geneve in particular has worked out as a reliable guide to Muthaiga, with Elvira and van Driel both winners and Campillo a former runner-up.
His last top-five came on a fiddly course in Japan and it wasn't long before then that he finished 23rd here in Kenya, ranking 12th in the tee-to-green stats only to suffer a quiet week with the putter. That club runs hot and cold, more so than most, and may well determine how close he can get to the top of the leaderboard this week.
Certainly though, Schneider showed enough to believe that Muthaiga fit his eye, ranking seventh in fairways and eighth in greens, and I could see the 35-year-old bagging his first DP World Tour title.
Next is a player whose reliance on his short-game means chances don't come along that often, AARON COCKERILL.
At 27th in strokes-gained around-the-green and 17th in putting last season, the Canadian showed once again that he boasts one of the very best short-games on the DP World Tour. He's accurate enough too, so it's a small collection of courses which really suit him.
This is certainly one such course, as he demonstrated when runner-up in 2022. That came after a run of MC-42-MC-62 to begin the year, a couple of those on the Challenge Tour, yet at Muthaiga he was able to gain strokes with his ball-striking and let the putter do the rest.
Also fourth at Leopard Creek and with several low rounds to his name at Crans, including two 66s last year, Cockerill returns to Kenya having been 38th and 21st in his last two starts. In fact he's improved throughout all four this year and with his irons now firing, the only area of concern really is what he does off the tee.
"I played pretty solid, this course fits really well with my game," was his response following an opening 65 and having missed two cuts narrowly before showing improvement to be 25th in Qatar last time, he was the one I was first drawn to. The trouble is he undeniably has difficulty avoiding big numbers and might just be one to follow for the first-round lead and wait it out, as I do expect he'll dazzle at some point.
Compatriot Benjamin Hebert is playing tidily and has been first and second at Geneve and Rinkven, as well as played nicely when arriving here out of sorts many years ago. It's a decade since he won anything though and he's probably one for three-ball punters if well-drawn, as he does look sharp on and around the greens at present and has always been accurate from the tee.
Matthias Schwab maybe hasn't been as bad as it looks like he's been and his form picked up when he arrived here last year, arrow-straight Joel Girrbach has made three cuts in four this year and will find this easier, while both Elvira brothers have enough course and current form to be of some interest too.
But rather than rolling the dice on Pineau or Schwab, the only ones I seriously considered chancing, I keep coming back to Doha selection RICARDO GOUVEIA.
We can take almost the same price in this much weaker event, with Laurie Canter, Jordan Smith, Antoine Rozner, Johannes Veerman, Keita Nakajima, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Matthew Jordan, Sam Bairstow, Ewen Ferguson and Daniel Hillier all absent.
That's because Gouveia missed the cut, but for the fourth time in as many starts this year his tee-to-green game was strong, only this time his putting was awful. He summed it up neatly on Instagram, posting: "A very cold week with the putter in Qatar meant an early exit. Lots of positives though in this first stretch of events to start 2025 off."
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