Karen Country Club in Nairobi is one of the handful of courses to have hosted back-to-back events on the DP World Tour over the last couple of years, something we saw again with two in Ras al Khaimah before a fortnight off.
Al Hamra, where first Nicolai Hojgaard and then Ryan Fox blasted their way to comfortable victories, does not look much like Karen, but it does offer similar opportunities for those whose strength is driving the ball. We saw as much when Daniel van Tonder won the Savannah Classic in Kenya last spring, as a host of short par-fours encouraged players to go for the green or else set up a pitch-and-putt birdie, and we saw it in stark terms in Ras where Fox and Hojgaard emulated Adri Arnaus and Jordan Smith in winning.
It's therefore significant, perhaps highly so, that Karen is replaced by Muthaiga for this year's renewal of the Kenya Open – these courses in the Kenyan capital share many things in common, but the way scores are built could contrast quite sharply. I have been to Muthaiga, and it is tighter, more undulating, and less obviously vulnerable to driver than Karen has been, something again demonstrated in 2019 when Guido Migliozzi and Adri Arnaus duelled for this title.
A par 71 with five par-threes, only the 17th ought to be offering genuine eagle chances for the big-hitters at Muthaiga, and three of the four par-fives are comfortably within reach for everyone. It is on the face of it a more intricate, balanced test which has seen fairways-and-greens golfers thrive, the likes of Aaron Rai, Lorenzo Gagli, Seve Benson, Gary Boyd and Robert Dinwiddie having won here on the Challenge Tour in the past.
Immediately, Crans-sur-Sierre, home of the European Masters, stands out as a reference point. Boyd has been halfway leader there, Dinwiddie managed two top-10s in a career which produced few of those, and Benson's record in the Swiss Alps was excellent for a player of his stature. Gagli meanwhile was part of a five-man play-off in 2019, and while winner Sebastian Soderberg also has a Karen victory on his CV, he was 54-hole leader when Gagli took this title four years ago. Kalle Samooja, also in that bumper play-off at Crans, was third.
That's a very strong set of connections given the calibre of player we're talking about and while Crans is probably a decent guide to Karen, it should be a particularly good one here. Small greens, tree-lined fairways, wedge upon wedge and an emphasis on sharp scrambling skills, not to mention the fact both courses are at considerable altitude, makes this a course correlation which is very easy to understand.
It also suggests we might be able to get the favourites beaten, with five of the top six in the market potentially far better suited to Karen. The exception, Justin Harding, defends his title but could in fact benefit from the course switch, given his is one of the sharpest short-games on the circuit, and yet he's spurned some very good chances since and is not one I can bring myself to trust at 16/1.
Top billing then goes to RICHIE RAMSAY, who has made a good start to the season despite facing conditions which immediately put him at a disadvantage.
Not that this gritty Scot will feel sorry for himself with the direction this sport travels, instead he's the sort to tough things out and then, at some stage, capitalise on the kind of opportunity which doesn't crop up too often.
He was unable to do that last October, but form figures of 25-32-MC-33 to start 2022 can be upgraded given the nature of the courses he's played, and I like the fact his irons were dialled in by the end of an encouraging fortnight at Al Hamra.
Kenya has always looked an ideal destination for a player whose first professional win came in South Africa, and Ramsay offered plenty when making his belated first visit last year. Put up on these pages for this event, he opened 67-65 to lie third at halfway, only for a nightmare 77 to end his chance before he put that behind him with a closing 68.
The Frenchman is another who hasn't exactly lit things up so far this year, but he's only played twice, both times at Al Hamra, and for my money offered plenty of encouragement in making the cut and finishing mid-pack in the second event.
Not to labour the point, but those like Lorenzo Vera who don't hit the ball a mile generally struggled across the fortnight and he's going to be far better suited to this test, a 2012 missed cut easily overlooked given he failed to make the weekend in half of his starts during a particularly difficult campaign.
Luiten featured in an eyecatchers piece I wrote last week and was quite tempting after a decent Kenya debut last year, but his short-game is a real worry and the fiddly nature of this test suggests the champion will have had to rely on what he does around the greens.
In Besseling then we have someone who is generally a little sharper in that department but what I like most is that he's a best-of-both-worlds blend of power, and a clear preference for this kind of course.
Like Bekker, McGowan cut through the pack here in 2018, sitting 134th after an opening 76 but then carding rounds of 67, 69 and 65 to finish 14th. That climb of 120 places came courtesy of golf only Matthias Schwab was able to better over those final three rounds, with Bekker carding the same score as he too overcame a nightmare first round.
McGowan's effort was all the more impressive given that he'd missed five cuts from five starts that year and would go on to miss his next two, and it further underlines ties between Muthaiga and Crans given that he's played the latter course five times, and hit the frame on three of them.
Crocker isn't exactly the type of player I was looking for here – he's more of the Meronk, Arnaus, van Tonder mould – but a poor start to the year has seen his odds drift to a price I can't resist, as he has stacks of ability and contended for many a good DP World Tour event last year.
One of those was the European Masters at Crans, where he finished fourth, and having also played well at Valderrama and Fanling he does have those form lines I like for all that his game is more about long, excellent driving than it is wedge play and scrambling.
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