It is possible to win an event like the John Deere Classic without putting well, and those with a penchant for the serendipitous might be willing to chance it happening again. After all, if Mark Hensby can do it in 2004, and Brian Harman can do it in 2014, why can't somebody do it in 2024?
TPC Deere Run, a permanent fixture on the PGA Tour this century, is the go-to example of a shootout for a reason. It is not in fact the easiest course on the schedule but it is one of the most reliably straightforward, seldom affected by severe weather or firm turf or anything like that. What you see here is very much what you get.
Of course, putting is inherently unpredictable and perhaps that's why we've had some surprise champions at times, never more so than across the 2018 and 2019 renewals. In the first of them, Michael Kim gained an eye-watering 13 strokes with the putter alone and waltzed to an eight-shot win. The following year, Dylan Frittelli did something similar through his short-game as a whole, his victory less of a surprise, but a surprise nonetheless.
Then again, this event has also been responsible for some of the most predictable things this sport can muster, such as Steve Stricker landing a hat-trick, local favourite (well, ish) Zach Johnson succeeding him, and Jordan Spieth winning twice in three years despite doing his best to shoot himself out of it on day one. For the second of those wins, Spieth was just a 3/1 chance.
It's very much Classic Spieth that he could fit both descriptions this week. On the one hand, he is now vying for favouritism following Patrick Cantlay's withdrawal, but on the other he'd be an out-of-sorts champion. It's three months since his last top-10, five since he had a chance to win... yet he struck the ball beautifully in a major just a few weeks ago. Like many, perhaps like the man himself, I've little idea what to expect.
The most likely winner is SUNGJAE IM, a better player than defending champion Sepp Straka, more reliable right now than Spieth, and with an obvious chance to outclass generally weak opposition for the grade.
The Korean has been at the top of his game of late bar at the US PGA and US Open, both in their own ways unique. Elsewhere, Im's non-major form since April reads 12-1*-4-9-8-3, the asterisk denoting a win back on home soil at a level far beneath this one.
Still, those other performances, four of them in Signature Events won by either Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, represent top-class form. Throughout, he's driven the ball in his customarily excellent fashion and as well as pounding greens again, his strokes-gained approach numbers took a big step forward last time. Only at the majors has his putting been poor.
Im has long been one of the best 'balanced' drivers on the PGA Tour, that being someone who is both accurate and long enough to gain strokes almost every times he tees up. Currently, than run stands at 11 events and chances are it'll be 12, which would give him the platform to have a really good go at this providing the rest of his game carries over from TPC River Highlands.
Two wins so far include one in a shootout, both of them on courses which are more about position than power, and while his form at Deere Run isn't outstanding, context is key. Im played here as a rookie in 2019 and finished 26th then returned in 2021 for 47th, his focus perhaps already shifting towards the Tokyo Olympics given the size of the prize for Korean golfers.
With national service now safely avoided thanks to gold at the Asian Games, it was a matter of time before Im recaptured his best form in the US and he very much has now. This is the first time he's played a tournament not featuring either Scheffler or McIlroy since March and he can capitalise with what would be an overdue third PGA Tour title.
Speaking of being overdue, DENNY MCCARTHY remains a maiden and he won't have many better chances than this on the face of it.
Sixth in each of the last two renewals, Deere Run is a course where he's hit all 18 greens in a round and birdied seven holes in eight, the type of lights-out venue where the single best putter on the PGA Tour can get on that kind of run in a heartbeat.
His ball-striking has been better here than it can be, having gained strokes in each of the last two renewals, and he's another who has been competing at a higher level for most of this year. In fact he's played two non-majors/Signature Events in the last 20 weeks, finishing second to Akshay Bhatia in Texas, and 24th at Colonial.
Kohles struggled at times early on this year after a fabulous 2023, but form figures of 2-58-26-MC-56-20 over the last couple of months represent a pleasing turnaround with an important few weeks to come.
His effort to make the cut at Pinehurst, where he shot 77-68, is the sort of thing that can spark something – not least because for Kohles, who moved to North Carolina at the age of 10, that was a home game, with friends and family having been out in force to support him.
Since we were on him at an absurd price on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he withdrew on a brutal day of scoring, Kizzire has five top-30 finishes in six on the PGA Tour. In a field like this, that makes for one of the strongest form profiles, even if he's generally played in the weaker fields.
As for his course form, that too represents some of the most solid: he's played here five times, with four top-30s, never shooting over-par in 18 rounds. When you consider that he's often arrived in abysmal form, that can be upgraded. In 2017, 2018 and 2022, his performance here was his best in several months. Last year he was missing cuts everywhere, so only in 2021 has he arrived in Illinois with confidence, and he was 11th.
I'd venture that he feels even better about his game now than he did then and among this field, he ranks second in both strokes-gained approach and greens in regulation. He's been a bit more accurate than usual, too, and while the putter hurt him when 20th last week, it was decent for 24th in the Nelson and 10th in Myrtle Beach.
Only that club prevented him from making the cut in Canada which would've meant six in a row for the first time in three years and, having lost full status at the end of 2023, he's now climbed to 126th in the FedEx Cup standings. That's a familiar number to him – it's where he finished last year's regular season – but the way he's playing now, he can keep on moving towards safety.
That process could well accelerate here and having won two shootouts on the PGA Tour in the past, he's by no means an unrealistic champion.
Hossler's long-game was good in Detroit and he's played pretty well here in the past while Cole's approach work might have turned a corner there and, in finishing sixth, he did well to compete with generally much longer hitters at a soft golf course.
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