The DP World Tour is back in action following one of its mini-breaks, which was extended by a week when the Korea Championship was sponsored by Genesis and moved to a late-October spot, seemingly now the place players hoping to keep their cards will have to go in order to do so.
For now we're in Japan for the ISPS Handa Championship and in some respects the timing could not be better, following Keita Nakajima's runaway victory in the Indian Open. That capped a difficult two weeks for this column, having been on Nakajima a week earlier when another of our selections lost a play-off at odds of 100/1, and goes down as a big opportunity missed.
Nakajima was also selected as the headline bet for this event last year at 40/1, eventually finishing 12th, and now returns having already been backed into less than half the price. That shouldn't surprise anybody. The former world amateur number one is on his way to the PGA Tour and a quick-fire double is well within his capabilities.
Here's a player of big potential, who was close to the top of the aforementioned World Amateur Golf Rankings (WAGR) when capturing first the Dunlop Phoenix Challenge, then the Dunlop Phoenix itself, towards the end of last year.
Sigiura beat Nakajima by three in the latter event, with Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka further back. He did so while still an amateur, electing to turn professional shortly afterwards having captured one of the very biggest events on his home circuit.
Taiga Semikawa, one of the other hot young Japanese talents (50/1 for this) and second alongside Nakajima, was pretty effusive in his praise of Sugiura, saying: "It's remarkable. I can relate to it to some extent. Sugiura had a much higher standing than I did since our student days.
"Despite my sudden ascent to the title of world amateur ranking first place last year, Sugiura had already established himself as a significantly superior player since his college days. His victory wasn't unexpected."
That's pretty high praise and Sugiura deserved it, having joined the likes of Kanaya and Matsuyama on a list of just seven players to have won Japan Golf Tour events as amateurs.
Now, we have to acknowledge that Nakajima needed a little while to show what he could do outside of the JGTO and Kanaya too, but Sugiura looks a massive price to my eye based not only on his potential, but what he's already achieved.
Note that he's started the year encouragingly, finishing 34th in New Zealand, sitting fifth at halfway in an International Series event featuring the likes of Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia (Sugiura eventually split the pair in 14th), and then marking his return to Japan with a final-round 62 in the opening event of the season.
That was enough for eighth place and while he'll need more to hit the money in this undeniably stronger field, I wouldn't want to be laying monster prices. For my money he's got as good a chance as Kazuma Kobori, the Japan-born New Zealander whose career so far has a similar look to it, but who is 70-125/1.
With so many of the classier players having been absent for a while, this could be a decent opportunity for the locals, and few have Sugiura's scope. He therefore rates a bet down to around 125/1.
The second one I'm interested in requires an even greater appetite for speculation, as REN YONEZAWA is a 400/1 shot (500s in a place at the time of writing) for a reason.
He struggled a little down in Australia and New Zealand to begin the year, missing all three cuts, but a return to Japan offered signs of a revival as he closed with a round of 66 to finish 35th.
Again, we're asking for a chunk of improvement but Yonezawa was a top-10 amateur a couple of years ago and finished runner-up three times in 2023, including in a particularly strong Casio World Open.
The main positives, however, can be found in his record on the Gotemba Course. Yonezawa played here three times as an amateur, finishing 13th, 25th and 18th, twice ranking third in ball-striking and generally looking like the putter let him down.
Approach play appears on what evidence we have to be his strength and that'll be important this week, so he's a speculative bet worth having down to 250/1, albeit with stakes kept to a minimum.
Without wishing to write an entire preview in reverse, my favourite outsider among the Europeans is MATTHIAS SCHWAB, available at three-figure prices.
We were on the Austrian when 26th in India last time and I'm surprised to be able to take almost double the odds at a course which should suit his neat and tidy game no less than that one did.
Accurate off the tee at his best, Schwab has been inside the top 25 in fairways hit in four of his last five starts, while his approach play numbers are encouraging. He's gained strokes throughout those five starts and is hitting plenty of greens once more.
Schwab does have some experience in Japan having been a solid 27th at the Olympic Games, while his record in China includes fourth place in a WGC and ninth at Fanling, a tree-lined course that would by no means look out of place in Japan.
Although aesthetically very different, the Gotemba Course is certainly a real test, playing quite long for a par 70 and offering few genuine birdie chances. DLF might therefore be as good a form guide as we have.
I wrote prior to that event that Soderberg would've appealed but for his propensity to run up a big number or two, one of the few things I've got right lately as he made two eights in the first round, still somehow managing to break par.
Eventually staying on for second despite closing out with a bogey at the par-five 18th, Soderberg was making it five top-10 finishes in 10 starts and I remain of the view that his form is being underestimated a little.
Tenth place last time was a return to something like his best, his putting improving for the third start in succession, and we know by now that the accurate German wants a test of precision rather than power, one where par is valuable. That's why he's built up such a strong record at Le Golf National and it's upon a course like this that his second win ought to arrive.
Like Schwab, he is a longstanding maiden but he's started to play really well lately, finishing 17th in South Africa and then defying an opening 74 to take 29th in Singapore, climbing 70-odd places over the final three rounds.
His approach play looks particularly good and he's been an excellent putter down the years, so the step forward he took in that department last time out could be a clue that the pieces are soon to fall into place for an accurate player who can grind out pars.
His par-four stats are especially strong, placing him in the top fifth of the DP World Tour throughout the past three seasons, and while I'd be ever so slightly worried the course plays longer than he'd like, the positives significantly outweigh that potential negative.
Scrivener has missed only two cuts since last July, one in a Rolex Series event won by Rory McIlroy that he played after six weeks off and another on a windswept links course. His form looks rock-solid, underestimated by the market, and it wouldn't shock me were he to make it back-to-back Australian winners.
Posted at 1700 BST on 22/04/24
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