Late last year, the PGA Tour and its most influential players made a decision, in response to external threats, to ensure that those big names gathered in the same place at the same time more often. In doing so, they also ensured that other tournaments would suffer as a consequence, and the first to really do so is the Honda Classic.
This is a fun event at a dramatic golf course and it's been won by the likes of Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler. Neither of them is here, though, and that's because the primary factors in determining schedules are, for those with freedom of choice, things like money, points, and timing. The Honda Classic is now worth considerably less than say the Phoenix Open, and its timing is now considerably worse.
That need not be a bad thing for the punter, however. I'm sure I'm not alone in exhaling now that we're not forced to make a determination on whether Jon Rahm will finish first, second, or perhaps have a shocking week and manage only third or fourth. There are worse events than the Honda to be taking on a short-priced favourite, but I'm still glad we don't have to rely on the Bear Trap to catch him.
Horschel splits Im and Lowry in the world rankings and would be clear third favourite here but for what seems to be a dip in form, as he's missed the cut in two of his last three starts following a fairly modest effort in the Tournament of Champions.
It is though important to remember that a lot of the top players are having to tweak their schedules to fit in the biggest events, and Horschel has probably suffered for that. He considered withdrawing from the Sony Open only to change his mind but that's not a course where he's achieved a great deal, and after that he played just fine for a mid-pack finish in Phoenix.
Riviera was a tough event for anyone to leave off the schedule even before it was elevated in status, but Horschel has often done so in the past. Missing the cut there last week doesn't bother me in the slightest, because his record read 54-MC-MC beforehand and he simply never plays well there, regardless of the state of his game.
Davis was a shorter price to beat Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele and more in the AmEx last month, on the back of a good effort at around 33-40/1 in the Sony Open. That was his first start since ending last year with a win back home in Australia.
For context, English was twice the price of Davis in the Amex, as were Taylor Pendrith, Kirk, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Denny McCarthy. All now are shorter than he is, and while this kind of analysis does have its flaws, an example so egregious as Davis deserves a second look.
In doing so, we find that while he did disappoint there, Davis's subsequent appearances have come at Torrey Pines and Riviera, two seriously difficult courses. He's putted abysmally at both of them but shown some signs of encouragement with his long-game, especially last Friday when the third-best driver in the Genesis Invitational field.
Shelton finished 20th in spite of his putter at Pebble Beach last time, he made the cut and continued to hit quality approaches at Torrey Pines, and before that was sixth in the AmEx where again his putting wasn't sharp.
It can be, though, as he showed when sixth last time he played on the east coast. Born, raised and educated in Alabama, Shelton's first three Korn Ferry Tour wins came in South Carolina and Tennessee (twice), whereas he's tended to struggle in similar tournaments in Utah, Oregon, California and so on.
Returning east could be a major positive then and he's in much better form than when 11th here in 2020. Back then, Shelton's five previous starts showed three missed cuts and a best of 36th; his following five a best of 56th and more weekends off. This time he's a much better player who has looked close to contending.
Runner-up here in a junior event once upon a time and refreshed having not been eligible for the high-intensity events in Phoenix and LA, Shelton has plenty in his favour and my hope is that his quality iron play marries up with a better week on the greens. With his waywardness off the tee less of a factor here than you might think, that would make for a potentially winning formula.
It's fair to argue that amateur form can be overrated at times but Daniel Berger almost made it pay at 125/1 when losing out to Padraig Harrington, should've won last year having led by six, and wouldn't be the only contender who knew PGA National really well.
That's part of the case for Shelton as it is for BEN GRIFFIN, who finished alongside him in one of those Polo Junior events and was runner-up in another, too.
Griffin had been one of the stars of the rookie class before missing the cut at Pebble Beach and that combined with the fact he was first alternate at Riviera should have him raring to go back under more suitable conditions.
A heartbreaking third in Bermuda late last year, a tournament he probably should've won, that performance added to a growing list of good ones on bermuda greens, including fourth in the Wyndham behind Tom Kim, 12th in the Sony Open, 16th in Houston, 24th in the Sanderson Farms and 29th in the RSM Classic.
Based nearby in Delray Beach, Cole has been a prolific winner on the Minor League Golf Tour down the years and he's also been runner-up here on the main course at PGA National.
This is his rookie PGA Tour season and he's done pretty well lately, making six of his last seven cuts and only failing at Torrey Pines. To be frank, I doubt there are many courses less suited to his game so that doesn't worry me in the slightest.
Granted a shorter, more technical set of challenges at Pebble Beach last time, Cole finished 15th without holing much and that was his first time playing those courses, so he's set up nicely for a return to his adopted home and a course of which he has plenty of experience.
Last time he played in Florida was when contending in the Suncoast Classic last February and his game, which is all based on what he does after the tee shot, looks a potentially good fit for an always demanding Honda Classic.
Cole proposed to his fiancee at Pebble Beach three weeks ago so life is good and what better way to celebrate than to go ahead and bag his first top-10 finish at this level, something which is well within reach if he remains in the form he showed last time out.
Posted at 1050 GMT on 21/02/23
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