"It's a bomber's paradise, to be honest."
Now, setting aside your own personal view as to where that second apostrophe really should be, this sentence could hold the key to the Hainan Open, the first of two Challenge Tour events in China which will shape the Road to Mallorca standings and determine who takes part in the Grand Final.
They come from Lorenzo Scalise, who liked what he saw when touching down at Sanya Luhuitou GC five years ago, the last time the course held this event. "The fairways are pretty wide, so you don’t have to be that accurate, but if you’re long, then you have shorter irons in and the rough isn’t that bad," he added. "As long as you hit bombs that are in play, then you’re good."
In the end, his compatriot Francesco Laporta won, by no means a bomber but certainly a good driver. Behind Laporta were the likes of Wil Besseling, Sebastian Heisele, Adrian Meronk, Pep Angles and Rasmus Hojgaard. In 2018, another shortish driver won, but behind Kalle Samooja were Grant Forrest, Sean Crocker, Adri Arnaus, Niklas Lemke and Ben Eccles. This looks a great example of how isolating winners risks missing the best clues.
We do also have leaderboards without ambiguity, because Erik van Rooyen beat Forrest and Tapio Pulkkanen in 2017 and alluded to the advantage his length provided in doing so, while in 2016, a rain-shortened renewal, Angles and Scott Henry finished second and third behind Alexander Knappe. All of these players are well above-average in distance off the tee.
With a hot, humid and (crucially) calm forecast for the week, this mid-length par-72, with its four reachable par-fives and a driveable par-four, should yield plenty of scoring opportunities and especially so for the powerhouses. The only shame in trying to work out who might win it is that the Kazakhstan Open is gone from the schedule, as the parallels between the two were so strong that we wouldn't have had to look far.
Top of the list is ALEX LEVY who for my money rates the bet of the week at 33/1.
Rewind to the spring and Levy went off at about 28/1 for the China Open, won by Adrian Otaegui at the chief expense of Sebastian Soderberg and Guido Migliozzi. Bernd Wiesberger, Jordan Smith, Tom McKibbin, Matteo Manassero, Jesper Svensson, Joost Luiten, Antoine Rozner and stacks more classy DP World Tour players made that a much, much stronger event than this.
For additional context, Zihao Jin was 1,000/1 in places. His price this week is 66/1. And this isn't even that deep a field for the Challenge Tour, given that its three best players currently are playing in the Open de France instead, another member of the Road to Mallorca top-five has chosen not to fly to China, and we're left with the top 60-odd in the season-long standings plus invited guests from the local tour.
Now, that doesn't tell you the full story as there's a reason Levy was popular back in April: he was playing very well, with four Challenge Tour top-10s in succession. He's also a two-time former winner of the China Open, including at the course which hosted it this year, so was always going to be well-supported given his blend of course and current form.
There are three others I like from the front of the betting in this top-heavy event and that makes things a bit difficult, but all three are bigger than I'd expected and I'm therefore going to have to include them.
TAPIO PULKKANEN took last week off and at 16th in the Road to Mallorca, his relative freshness could set him up to secure his immediate return to the DP World Tour.
Pulkkanen was second here in 2017 so we have some course form to call upon, while he's a winner in Kazakhstan, too. Last time he played in China was five years ago but 14th place at a higher level also reads well and he'll be looking forward to this long-awaited return, I'm sure.
When Samooja won this title he talked about how Pulkkanen's performances had inspired him, the two having been friends for a long time, and I'm hopeful the latter can now emulate his compatriot and win it too.
He's certainly playing well enough having been third in Portugal and 12th last time out and really he's only had two off-days since July, both at new courses on the Challenge Tour. Missing the cut in Italy, under conditions starkly contrasting these, isn't concerning in the slightest.
Like Levy, he's played some less-than-suitable courses lately and that includes last week's Dunhill Links, where a solid 46th is about in line with previous starts there. In fact it's the first time he's carded four under-par rounds in five attempts.
Before that there's just no way a short course in Italy was going to suit and he recovered quite nicely to make the cut on his debut at another quite fiddly, exposed one in Portugal. For my money his schedule could certainly have been mapped out better and he'd have been a big danger in the Swiss Challenge.
Nienaber has nevertheless only missed two cuts since April, both on the number, and at 25th in the Road to Mallorca standings this is his best chance yet to earn a full DP World Tour card for the first time.
To do so he may need to defy his lack of experience in China over the next fortnight but that to me is the only negative. As mentioned, I'd have been happy to leave him out at 16/1 and under, but anything 20/1 bigger is worth taking. I'm surprised to see 28s, double the general prices for those other two events where we've been on him recently.
The other I like is LUCAS BJERREGAARD, who finished 12th in the Czech Challenge after a closing 64.
At 22nd in the Road to Mallorca, a couple of spots above Nienaber, Bjerregaard has everything to play for over these final three events and there's a good chance he takes care of business in China before heading to Spain for the Grand Final.
Five top-six finishes across China and Hong Kong down the years, plus good form in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, all demonstrate that he'll adjust fine to these conditions and he's always had a little extra in the locker when needed off the tee.
Joshua Grenville-Wood landed a share of the place money for us at 175/1 last time and he's a proper powerhouse with a couple of low-level top-10s in the Far East. He could go well again along with Kristoffer Reitan, runner-up for us there and another who has a chance to get back to the DP World Tour, where he has the talent to establish himself.
Niklas Lemke certainly has experience and 12th place from a bad set of tee-times on his latest start was encouraging, two weeks after third place in Portugal had reignited his hopes of another crack at the big tour. Fourth here on debut, he's another with an obvious chance in a tournament with very few realistic winners, but I'd have wanted 50/1 to be backing the veteran.
This belief that there's a lack of depth despite the significance of the event is reflected in the staking plan and I am acutely aware that four players from the top dozen in the market isn't a great look. However, prices ultimately have to dictate and this is one occasion where I think all four have been underestimated to a sufficient degree, while we'll claw most of it back if one of them hits the frame.
I'll be extremely disappointed if that doesn't happen, though I've been extremely disappointed before.
Posted at 2100 BST on 08/10/24
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