The words ‘Mission’ and ‘Hills’ might be useful in describing how much of a challenge it is to isolate the right course form for this week’s DP World Tour event, the Hainan Classic.
Two such properties exist in China, one in Shenzhen and the other here in Hainan, and both have various layouts. The real confusion begins when you realise the following two things are true: the only men’s form of note here at the Blackstone Course comes from the 2011 World Cup, yet the Mission Hills World Cup Course is about 400 miles away.
That World Cup was won by Team USA, Matt Kuchar and Gary Woodland, and it might just tell us all we need to know despite having taken place almost 14 years ago. Kuchar went as far as saying that he selected Woodland as his partner because the course would fit. Woodland agreed, and almost every player who spoke about Blackstone referred to its length.
Wide fairways which are protected by lava rock rather than rough mean players will hit plenty of drivers around this monster of a par 72, which is listed as playing to 7,711 yards. Perhaps it’ll get firm, as last week’s venue did as the week progressed, as we’re not quite into the heart of rainy season in China, but courses in the region are more often than not receptive.
There are six par-fours from 450-520 yards and two of the four par-fives stretch well past 600, so it’s hard to escape the view that big-hitting will win in the end. Sometimes, wide fairways negate the advantage power hitters enjoy at courses as long as this one and that’s certainly possible, but I wouldn’t call it likely.
I thought last week’s China Open confirmed that these events are generally weak, even if Ashun Wu was something of a surprise champion. Still, he has pedigree and so did just about every contender, the locals by and large failing to compete with so few of them capable of doing so, yet still taking up a big chunk of the field.
As such, there’s a strong case for backing both Hao-tong Li and RASMUS NEERGAARD-PETERSEN to be honest but I’ll plump for the latter, who is the best player in the field and deserves to be clear favourite.
The 2024 Challenge Tour star has four top-10s in seven since earning full DP World Tour status, plus another from a successful jaunt to the PGA Tour where he again came agonisingly close to winning, and DataGolf have him on the fringes of their top 50.
That makes this special young talent clear best in this field and a genuine Ryder Cup contender if he can continue improving, and certainly the quality of his tee-to-green game so far this season suggests we’re looking at a very special talent.
Last week’s staying-on 10th on his first start in a month was a lovely reintroduction to the DP World Tour on just his second trip to China, though notably the first saw him play here in Hainan at the back-end of 2023, months after turning professional and on a course less suitable than this one.
Neergaard-Petersen isn’t in the super-long category like so many of his Danish counterparts but he’s well above-average and I think he’ll enjoy this test far more than Enhance Anting, a quirky, rolling track where no doubt Wu’s dynamite short-game proved decisive.
Our man finished with a bogey six at the par-five 18th but still produced a final round better than all bar Wu and as this might be the most winnable event he plays in for the rest of the year, now looks the time to side with him.
Stone is a Rolex Series winner let’s not forget and while I’d take his current tee-to-green numbers with a pinch of salt (data won’t be fully reliable until shot tracking returns in Europe), he does appear to be striking the ball to a very high standard.
Long off the tee and certainly suited to a big, exposed course such as this one, Stone’s form figures of late read 16-30-20-6-36, a run sparked by a return to his native South Africa.
The huge-hitting Englishman ranked eighth in strokes-gained off-the-tee and hit solid approach shots too only to suffer his worst putting week since September last year, which I hope means we can safely upgrade his performance.
Granted better luck on the greens (and this strokes-gained data is supported by old-fashioned numbers which have him first in ball-striking but 60th in putting, making it look reliable), not to mention a course upon which he can open his shoulders, Penge could return to the form he showed in March when third in the SA Open.
Lemke is another long driver and something of an underachiever if truth be told, albeit he’s had his share of injuries and has still enjoyed a good career since graduating Arizona State with an exceptional record at that division one college.
It’s probably asking a lot for him to now get the win his perseverance may well deserve, given that he turns 41 on Wednesday, but he does have the right profile and in two starts at a course I think could help us, he’s been fourth and 17th.
That 17th came in October when he was in fact the halfway leader and he returns having started the year in encouraging fashion, finishing 10th in Qatar, 13th in Kenya, 37th in Joburg and 22nd last week.
Cantero is back out to big prices again following a seemingly poor run, but he hit the ball well when mid-pack in Singapore before the break (advised at 80/1 in stronger field), undone there by the putter, and after a clumsy return round shot a promising 69 last Friday.
I don’t think Enhance Anting will have suited him anything like the way this course might and it was his likely suitability to a drivers’ layout at Al Hamra which helped us land the each-way money at three-figure prices back in January.
One week later he was placed again in Bahrain behind Laurie Canter, at a course where the wild but long Dylan Frittelli won a year earlier, and sixth place to keep his card late last year came behind Byeong Hun An, another who hits the ball forever.
Cantero’s bad golf is pretty bad but the ceiling of this former top-10 amateur is high. To get close to it, he’s needed the right golf course – and it’s therefore sensible to chance him on this one, especially as it’ll be a while before he finds another where he can hit driver so often.
A couple of bad mistakes on Sunday saw him fade to 36th and so far he’s failed to put four rounds together at this level, but it strikes me as notable that his best golf so far this year came at Al Hamra, when he did manage to play well for three rounds on his way to 16th.
He has a hint of form in Hainan having been 28th at Sanya Luhuitou in October, at a time when his results were poor, while I do like the fact that it’s one year ago this week that his career really went up a level, fourth in the UAE followed by a breakthrough win in Spain.
Another followed in France and Moscatel could just be the sort to pop up at a massive price on a suitable golf course. Hopefully, Blackstone plays as it ought to on paper: as the type of venue where the power Woodland used to help win the World Cup helps separate players come the end of this week.
Posted at 0900 BST on 22/04/25
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