The Genesis Invitational has a lot to live up to as the supposed star attraction of a west coast run which has already been magnificent, thanks to two play-offs and three first-time winners. Indeed after Hudson Swafford won The American Express things built up towards a crescendo which might just have come one week early as Scottie Scheffler beat Patrick Cantlay in a drunken, delirious, dizzying Phoenix Open. How exactly do you follow that?
The answer is with more of a purist's test, at a famous old golf course, and with all of the world's best players in attendance, and for all we cannot guarantee the same level of drama, we know for sure this is the best men's golf tournament held anywhere in 2022. Whoever wins it must surely stride into spring as a candidate for further success, with The PLAYERS, the Match Play and the Masters all now tantalisingly close.
When the stars are in town as they are here in LA, it's often difficult to see beyond them, though it must be said that Max Homa was not the first to overshadow them when he broke Tony Finau's heart a year ago. In-form and playing in his hometown event, Homa was by no means a surprising champion, but he was ranked outside the world's top 50 at the time. Twelve months down the line and numbers one to 11 dominate the betting.
Not that anyone comes here with flawless credentials. Jon Rahm's brilliance is such that second gear can still pay, but he has seemed stuck in it for a couple of weeks now and his strike-rate at this level doesn't justify prices which are more a reflection of his reliability. Patrick Cantlay has now spurned three good chances and the spectre of Rahm's top ranking may hinder him, if indeed he's able to go again. Justin Thomas, third in the betting, has a feast-or-famine record here and though cruising to seventh at Scottsdale, I'd be adamant that's a better test for him.
With Rory McIlroy's last victory in a field comparable to this one now three years in the past, and Xander Schauffele flattering to deceive once more at the weekend, I find myself compelled to split stakes between the two biggest threats to Rahm: DUSTIN JOHNSON and COLLIN MORIKAWA.
Johnson is playing at the single most suitable course for him on the PGA Tour, one at which he was a dominant winner in 2017, having amassed five top-five finishes from his previous seven visits. One of those was a play-off defeat to shock champion James Hahn and even last year, when a seemingly non-threatening eighth, he played his way right into it during Sunday's final round.
Riviera is made for his game, as a difficult course which favours those who work the ball left-to-right off the tee. A longtime California resident who has won twice at Pebble Beach, he's very comfortable on these poa annua greens and the ties between this tournament and the Masters were strengthened further when Johnson won a Green Jacket in 2020.
These aren't results which scream winner-in-waiting but Morikawa has so far danced to a different beat than many, having finished 71st in Scotland before winning the Open, 43rd here before taking a WGC, 20th in a small field before that brilliant PGA Championship breakthrough, and missing the cut at the Travelers and then taking down Thomas in the Workday Charity Open.
He is undeniably more volatile than many of his peers but six wins in something like sixty tries immediately suggests we won't go too far wrong in siding with him at 20/1 at the right course. And there's where I believe lies another misconception: the idea that because he's not contended in two previous appearances here, Riviera is not the right course. It really ought to be.
Finau is risky because he's not been lighting it up this year – indeed, since winning in August he's proven the idea of floodgates opening to be a little ridiculous in this sport.
However, we are undeniably compensated by prices around the 50/1 mark at a course where he'd already been runner-up before losing out to Homa in a play-off, when unfortunate that the latter was able to escape from the base of a tree at the notorious 10th hole.
Last time out he defied a slow start (100th after round one) to finish 28th in Saudi Arabia, shooting an excellent final-round 64 on his first start in he Middle East, and he's now back under familiar, comfortable conditions, the kikuyu rough and poa annua greens very much his wheelhouse.
Victory at Torrey Pines just before the shutdown in 2020 was no surprise given his form in this part of the US and Riviera, where he has two top-fives, shot a closing 65 for 15th on debut and played well last year, is no less suitable on paper. His approach play has been excellent here and when his putter has fired lately it's seen him feature towards the top of the leaderboard. The Aussie should go well.
Niemann spoke of how much he loves this course and this tournament when second at halfway last year, and while poor over the weekend that was the third time in as many starts he'd shown promise here. On debut, the Chilean shot 71-66 to be on the fringes, and his 2020 missed cut was on the number.
It's also worth noting that he was returning from a month off last year whereas this time he's bagged successive top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines and in Saudi Arabia, making an excellent debut at the latter course having finally delivered on long-held promise at the former.
It's no secret that Ghim has some Riviera course form to his name having lost the final of the US Amateur here to Doc Redman, but his quality long-game ought to make it a good fit for him as a touring professional, too. He didn't quite show it last year but rounds of 71 and 72 to miss the cut by a single shot were respectable, and the fact he hasn't missed a cut since the first event of this season demonstrates his continued improvement.
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