With the move from Riviera done and Tiger Woods having withdrawn, the story of the Genesis Invitational build-up has become the weather. On Tuesday, Hideki Matsuyama said that the greens were soft and that playing here three weeks ago wouldn't really help, such is the contrast in conditions. Collin Morikawa said 'it's going to play really tough, it's going to play long' and with more rain forecast, he's probably right.
Morikawa felt that with rough which has been allowed to grow, this would make fairways all the more important. On this, I'm not sure I agree. Time and again down the years, narrow fairways and thick rough have been said to help shorter hitters, but seldom has it played out that way. The US Open at Olympic Club would be the best example but that remains an outlier. In general, power wins when everyone misses fairways.
Now, Morikawa has an excellent record here and could certainly be competitive, but when looking through the three-balls it makes sense to try to spot what you might term power imbalances. The other thing we can do is isolate form at the South Course, knowing that performances in the Farmers Insurance Open can be made to look better by a low round on the (generally) much easier North.
These two approaches gave me a shortlist of five, as follows.
JAKE KNAPP is another long driver with good South Course form. He first emerged as a PGA Tour rookie when third in last year's Farmers then went on to win an event in Mexico which is made for the big-hitters, and his return to Torrey Pines saw him finish a decent 32nd last month.
Knapp has since posted opening rounds of 65 and 67 to lie second and 11th after round one and he looks a value bet here at 2/1 and bigger versus two much shorter drivers in Daniel Berger and Andrew Novak.
Berger's return to form is now complete after another Sunday in the mix in Phoenix and I don't oppose him lightly, but outside of an excellent seventh in the 2021 US Open his record here is modest. Poa annua greens wouldn't be ideal, either.
Novak had a chance to win the Farmers but had previously gone 70-69-MC at Torrey Pines. Firmer conditions and a handy draw last month were both major factors and following a backwards step in Phoenix, I'll gladly take him on.
We were, I felt, a bit unfortunate to lose a nice bet to Eric Cole in the Farmers, where he shot 71 on that horrible, windy day, comfortably his best so far at the South Course. The fact that he went on to shoot 79-77 at the weekend and fall right down the leaderboard made it all the more frustrating but hopefully he continues along that path and again shows that Torrey Pines just isn't for him.
Mackenzie Hughes contended here in the US Open until losing a ball up a tree but his Farmers record is generally poor and so can be his driving, which isn't especially long and certainly isn't straight. That combination around a soft South Course could make life difficult.
In MIN WOO LEE we've a genuinely world-class driver of the ball, all because of the incredible distances he can hit it. He's also playing really well and has for months, especially now his putting is showing signs of a return to its best following last year's knee problem which made it hard for him to bend down and read greens.
The Aussie got a taste of Torrey Pines last year when 43rd despite putting poorly, with his driver powering that display. He could be a live one this week and, if power does prevail, should be too good for his playing partners.
Cameron Young is another phenomenal driver of the ball and some of his work during the middle rounds in Phoenix was breathtaking. With some sneaky South Course form to his name, that's why I felt compelled to go in again with a player who has so often threatened to win in fields like this, including in the Genesis itself.
Brian Harman looks opposable on power grounds and his South Course record is quite poor on paper, but he is playing reasonably well and his numbers here might be better than they look as one awful round brings them down somewhat.
With Austin Eckroat a strong driver who has gained close to a stroke per round at the South so far, Young can be left alone on the basis of his draw. Let's wait and see who he's out with on Saturday and reassess.
Posted at 1320 GMT on 12/02/25
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