Ben Coley ended the last PGA Tour season with two winners in three weeks. Get his best bets for the first event of the new one, headed by Maverick McNealy.
- Ben's recent tips include a winners at 8/1, 25/1, 28/1, 28/1, 33/1 and 200/1, a 400/1 each-way return, and profits of almost 600pts for the year. Click here for his tipping record and
Golf betting tips: Fortinet Championship
2pts e.w. Maverick McNealy at 28/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Gary Woodland at 66/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. J.J. Spaun at 90/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Patrick Rodgers at 110/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman at 125/1 (bet365, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
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Before we begin, some housekeeping. The reason that the field for the Fortinet Championship is weak is not because the other lot are at it again. Dustin Johnson never made it to Silverado, home of this event since 2014. Cam Smith last visited six years ago, Joaquin Niemann four, and Abraham Ancer hasn't been back since a 2019 missed cut. Even Patrick 'I take time off golf by playing golf' Reed had never managed to schedule a trip to wine country with his family, which is a shame for those who like their twitter drunk and disorderly.
The reason is the same as it so often is when we ponder why they go here and not there: scheduling. Elite players finished the previous season little more than a fortnight ago. Those among them who are European were in England last week, and there's little incentive to fly half way around the world even if a bottle of Luke Donald is being uncorked. Those who are not European have next week's Presidents Cup to prepare for, and have generally chosen to follow the assumed path rather than the one trodden by Jon Rahm a year ago.
We come to Rahm by design, for he serves as a cautionary tale. When 23 of the 24 Ryder Cup team members were preparing for that event, Rahm was here, ticking one of the boxes he needed to tick and doing so as a dare I say disinterested 9/2 favourite who would go on to miss just his second cut of the year. I can't remember the precise words he used, but Geoff Ogilvy once said you're kidding yourself if you think every player gives everything every time they play, and that's fine. They are Independent Contractors™, are they not?
The circumstances aren't identical, in that it's easier to understand why Max Homa, Corey Conners, Cam Davis, Hideki Matsuyama and Taylor Pendrith are here. The gap between season's end and the Presidents Cup is one week wider, for starters, and the International rookies might do well to get rid of some nervous energy. Homa is of course the defending champion and in keeping with his reputation as one of the sport's good guys he has kept his promise to sponsors. As for Matsuyama, perhaps he wants to see how fit he is.
McNealy will have to face some demons upon his return to Silverado having made double-bogey at the 71st hole, responding with an eagle which saw him lose out by a shot. Now, there's cause and effect at play here – I doubt he'd have made eagle to win had he made par at the 17th – but clearly he was in the mix for a PGA Tour breakthrough and came unstuck.
It should be remembered that he was bogey-free to that point having played beautifully for the most part, and anyone who recalls his finish at Pebble Beach earlier in the year will be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. McNealy didn't win on the Korn Ferry Tour and does still have that question to answer, but it's far too soon to dwell on one bad swing.
Another from California, Champ landed a popular and emotional victory thanks to his imperious driving, leading the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee as he had a year earlier. It seems then that Silverado appeals to the skills of a volatile player whose dips in form have to be set against the fact he's already collected three titles at this level.
Fowler opened with a round of 65 at Southwind when last we saw him, having scraped into the Playoffs in fortunate fashion, and the Harmon news alone will be enough to tempt some. Then again, this is one Californian who has seldom played well in California, not for a long time anyway, and four good rounds are probably beyond him for the time being.
The same might be true of Jason Day, though there are more positives here, chief among them some good approach work. That's often a weakness which means Day can capitalise when something clicks, and his record in this part of the USA is exceptional. Earlier this year he shared the 54-hole lead at Torrey Pines and some firms made him second-favourite to Patrick Cantlay a week later, which underlines how far down the pecking order he's deemed to have fallen.
I've almost talked myself into the Aussie on debut here but the case for GARY WOODLAND is stronger and he might really enjoy Silverado.
Woodland has been gradually piecing things back together having struggle for large periods since winning the 2019 US Open, and I suspect he might take a little something from seeing Shane Lowry end a similar drought at the BMW PGA Championship.
Whether that's crossed his mind or not, five top-10 finishes last season, beginning in the west at the CJ Cup, made it a comeback campaign and it would be fair to say he did everything well in patches. Most of all it would've surely pleased him to get his main strength back, climbing from 157th in strokes-gained off-the-tee to back inside the top 50, where he belongs.
Spaun was deeply impressive in the way he went about capturing his first PGA Tour title and he looks to be underestimated here, having started to show signs of his best form again after an understandable adjustment period.
Eighth in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he then went MC-42-23 over the final three events of his season, but that doesn't quite tell the whole story. Spaun was in fact in front after 18, 36 and 54 holes of the FedEx St Jude Championship, and it was only one poor round which kept him from qualifying for East Lake via the BMW Championship which followed.
Spaun will therefore need to win again or enter the world's top 50 if he's to earn a second crack at the Masters, where he played so well as an 11th-hour invite to finish 23rd, and this looks a nice fit for the LA native who is the third most famous alumni of San Dimas High School (behind Bill S. Preston Esq. and Ted Theodore Logan).
A regular visitor to Silverado, Spaun showed what he could do at the course when ninth in 2020. That was his only top-30 finish of a miserable year and saw him rank fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green only to struggle a little with putter in hand, which has always been a nagging concern.
On all six starts he's driven the ball well and for the most part his approach play has also been good here, so returning as a PGA Tour winner he looks a potential each-way player having definitely recaptured something towards the end of a breakthrough season.
Beau Hossler looked for a long time like he would triumph in Texas and ties things together nicely having played well at Riviera, and in his last two starts here. He's a similar player to former runner-up Patton Kizzire and if producing a solid ball-striking week could figure back close to where he grew up.
Hoffman in last-chance saloon
That's a big if, however, and I'd rather chance CHARLEY HOFFMAN producing a good putting week, which admittedly requires a leap of faith too.
That said, the 45-year-old was back driving the ball to an extremely high standard towards the end of last season, and in the Rocket Mortgage Classic married that with field-leading approach play. It was his best tee-to-green performance since finishing second in the Texas Open 18 months earlier.
Off the tee he improved again at the Wyndham where I chanced him despite a poor course record but again his putter was an issue and that has continued to hold him back. There have been occasional good weeks but no more than that and there's no escaping the fact he does need to find improvement for a month away.
However, I can't escape the fact that as well as going close at Riviera he has a fine record at San Antonio, and he has started to hint that he can complete the triangle here. Hoffman missed his first two cuts but only narrowly, and then started well in 2020 before four solid rounds for 22nd place last year.
His long-game has categorically improved since then and there's one other factor, aside from the fact he's Californian, that I'm intrigued by. Hoffman will presumably tee off here in his first start under a career money exemption, something he can use only once. Such a scenario can spark a player into life and it did the very same to his longtime friend Nick Watney, who finished 30th and second in the first two events last season when in a similarly perilous spot.
Given that he's been hanging around close to the lead at some stage in each of his last four starts, and was eighth at halfway in the high-class Canadian Open three months ago, Hoffman should have faith in himself to win back his full playing rights. And, like Watney, it's possible he wastes no time in doing it.
Joseph Bramlett is another local who could threaten if his short-game holds up but I'll fall into the trap of chancing PATRICK RODGERS at a course he loves.
By now you ought to know that Rodgers enjoyed a fabulous college career at nearby Stanford University and while still a PGA Tour maiden, he is only 30 and has time on his side.
In strokes-gained terms there's a good case to argue that he comes here on the back of his best ever season, the first in which he gained strokes with his approach play, and he was comfortably inside the top 100 in FedEx Cup points to avoid a return to Korn Ferry Tour Finals.
A year ago, he was about the same price for a stronger edition of this event based on form he'd shown in those finals, so I can't help but feel he's in effect being downgraded for avoiding them this time.
He was sixth here last year, too, playing bogey-free golf across the weekend to earn his second top-10 finish in eight starts at Silverado. He's always gained strokes off the tee here and it's certainly one of the handful of courses at which he should be of interest almost regardless.
As it happens, he's made 10 cuts in 13 starts since April, competed at a very high level in Canada and at the US Open and signed off the season in decent form before Southwind, where he missed the cut for the second time in three starts having been away for five years.
Back close to where he made his name, Rodgers can demonstrate that while the lofty ambitions of a decade ago remain distant, he is very much capable of rubbing shoulders with anyone in this field.
Posted at 1910 BST on 12/09/22
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