A discombobulating PGA Tour season enters its final stretch with the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the latest attempt to ensure Southwind remains on the schedule and a worthy one given the money raised for the local children's hospital which gives this tournament its name. A mainstay since 1989, this event has been shapeshifting over the last few years, leaving its traditional pre-US Open slot to become part of the WGC series only briefly, and now tasked with kickstarting the Playoffs.
Southwind, as Tiger Woods might say, is what it is – an uninspiring par 70 made difficult by small, fast greens, tricky rough, but above all else the various water hazards which colour the course. Avoiding those is obviously important and it can be argued that there's added volatility, the like of which we get at the Honda Classic. Two-time course winner Daniel Berger is a runner-up in that event and in some ways he's a nice blueprint, as a player who hits fairways before relying on his iron play and getting his putter hot on familiar, bermuda greens.
Last year's event went to a similar player in Abraham Ancer, but only after a chaotic finish to the tournament. Harris English came home in 40 when seemingly in command, largely because of two approach shots to the par-threes which found water. Alongside him, Bryson DeChambeau came home in 41, and up ahead Cameron Smith doubled the 18th to lose by two, having played his final four holes in three-over.
That meant Sam Burns, whose chance appeared to have gone when he drove it out-of-bounds off the 13th tee, was able to sneak into a play-off after outscoring Smith by six shots from the 15th onwards. So too was Hideki Matsuyama, who was labouring in 30th place at halfway and 14th with a round to go, before closing with a round of 63. It was somehow fitting that the play-off ended abruptly as Ancer made birdie and Burns couldn't match him from close range, the Mexican earning an overdue breakthrough win.
All of which is to say that humdrum courses still throw up engrossing tournaments and we ought to get one here, with most of the world's best players in attendance and Rory McIlroy at the head of the betting. McIlroy, like so many, returns for the first time since a gut-wrenching finish to the Open Championship won by second-favourite Cameron Smith, and it's going to be fascinating to see how they all get on having not only been absent for almost a month, but last been seen playing golf of a completely different style.
McIlroy goes well fresh and is the right favourite, but the best bet among the elite is world number one SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, who makes plenty of appeal at 16/1 generally.
The star of spring, Scheffler won four times in six starts from February's Phoenix Open to the Masters in April, but he looks to be in similar nick right now, too. Let's not forget, he really should've added a fifth title in the Charles Schwab and would've with a behaving putter, twice looked like he was sure to win the US Open after that, and was in the mix for far longer than 21st place at St Andrews might suggest.
Ultimately, the putter which looked infallible has just gone cold on him but sometimes a change in surface is all it takes, as we've seen from Sungjae Im over the last fortnight, and this will be Scheffler's first go on bermuda greens for a few months. If it does kick him into gear then everything else is where it needs to be: he's driven the ball exceptionally from Colonial onwards, his approach play has arguably never been better, and there really are no excuses on that front.
His form at Southwind is also encouraging, as he's ranked fifth and sixth in strokes-gained tee-to-green on his last two starts here, both when not yet a PGA Tour winner. Eight of the last 11 champions have led that category for the week – it would be nine had Matsuyama won the play-off – and it's no exaggeration to say that Scheffler, who ranks eighth for the season, has actually been stronger in this department lately than he was when picking off titles seemingly at ease.
There's no guarantee that he putts better having struggled a little on these greens over the last couple of years, but the Texas resident deserves the benefit of the doubt at the odds. He opened 65-65 here last year and was in the mix through 54 holes, he has correlating form at Colonial and Copperhead, and arriving fresh is no bad thing as all four wins came following a week away.
Ultimately I rate him the biggest danger to McIlroy, comfortably so, and anything bigger than 12/1 makes him a bet.
Unlike most of those ahead of him in the betting, Zalatoris has reacquainted himself with PGA Tour golf since the Open, finishing 20th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 21st in the Wyndham. Both offered encouragement, particularly his putting through the middle rounds of the latter event, but neither course really plays to his strengths.
It strikes me that he just really wanted to get sharp for the Playoffs, which don't forget he missed last year due to a quirk in the qualifying criteria. That was probably decisive in keeping Zalatoris out of the Ryder Cup side and he'll definitely have a point to prove as well as seeking to shed the unwanted tag of the best player in the sport who is yet to win on the PGA Tour.
Although it's his Playoffs debut, he played Southwind last year when this was a WGC event, and I wrote prior to it that he'd be a big player if fit. That was in doubt after he'd withdrawn from the Open, so to come here and finish eighth, on his first look at the course and not yet back to full health, was a mighty effort.
Mitchell is the son of an R&A member and his sister studies in St Andrews, so the Open was a big deal for him and he'll have been devastated to start it with a nightmare 76. That said, he can take heart from a second-round 69 to restore pride and reflect on the fact he achieved his goal in qualifying for the event.
Next on the agenda is surely to crack the top 50 in the world, something he's yet to do, and this is a good opportunity. He knows Southwind well and produced some quality approach work to be 37th on debut in 2018, returning to lead the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee but struggle badly on the greens when 39th in 2019, and his warm-up in the Wyndham last week also saw him dominate with driver.
That seems harsh on Hoge, the world number 44 who was ninth in the PGA Championship in May, and it's almost as if he didn't return to form with fourth place at the 3M Open last time, an event which actually might correlate quite well with this through the likes of Richy Werenski, Michael Thompson and Troy Merritt.
Like those three, Hoge is far from flashy but his approach play has been nothing short of world-class over the last year. He ranks 11th for the season and, after a barren run which included two majors and some links golf he's not altogether comfortable with, his irons were firing again when he led the field in strokes-gained approach in Minnesota.
Now he returns to Southwind, where he was 12th on debut, his first performance of any significance on the PGA Tour. Hoge sat fourth at halfway and did everything well when ranked outside the top 500 in the world, before returning a year later to lead after round one and lie second at halfway, again at a time when he had barely threatened the top of leaderboards.
Palmer led here in 2015 after an opening 64 and has been a Southwind staple down the years. More recently he's fired six-under 64s in each of the last two editions, while three starts back he made a bright start and contended in the Scottish Open.
Clearly he has issues seeing things through but the Texan has a dozen first-round leads down the years and if a return to these greens sparks improvement with the putter, he has a low one in him for all that advancing to the next event is likely going to be a stretch too far.
Posted at 1025 BST on 09/08/22
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