The Farmers Insurance Open begins on Wednesday and, from a selfish perspective, that's excellent. Saturday night equals work anyway, so I might as well be watching the golf while I'm at it. Plus, the early start means tee-times are released on Monday and with my deadline for previews 5pm Tuesday, there's just enough time to squeeze in a look.

Were I to choose a tournament to move a day forward in the week it might well be this one, because the contrast between the shorter, easier North Course and the tougher, beefier South Course isn't really factored into prices. Players are graded in the usual way and their tournament form plays a part, but there's no accounting for North versus South and what is quite a stark contrast.

Around the North, just about anyone could put together a score with an eagle here, a few putts there. At the South, doing so is difficult and you'll have to putt the lights out if you're not doing lots of other things well. Above all else, this is a monster layout with just two holes you'd call short (relative to par), both on the front-nine. The par-fives are no picnic, either, and there's a very clear profile to look for.

Ghim to beat Whaley and Montgomery (1701 GMT)

Here's a case in point. Around the North, taking on Vince Whaley and Taylor Montgomery, two of the best putters on the PGA Tour, would be much riskier, but the prices would be the same.

Around the South, I'm more than willing to oppose Whaley, who has started the year slowly. His record in this event reads MC-MC-MC-MC and he's shot rounds of 76, 77 and 81 around the host venue. At the North, he's broken 70 three times in four but here on its more iconic sister layout, he can't get close to doing so.

Montgomery does have a decent Torrey Pines record and the fact he hits it far enough is part of that. However, his ball-striking numbers throughout 2024 were the worst on the PGA Tour and while there have been small steps in the right direction lately, I strongly suspect we'll see enough of those destructive misses to all but guarantee a high score.

And then we come to DOUG GHIM. I couldn't say he's the ideal opponent in every sense as he isn't the longest, but in terms of consistency and finding fairways and greens in the required number, he's metronomic; the range of possibilities is much narrower with him than it is the others. That's a pretty good profile to be leaning on when the basis of the bet is perceived weakness among playing partners.

Having made four cuts in six at Torrey Pines and closed with a round of 66 last year, Ghim has the best profile by far. Like many, he does have one big number to his name in the event and therein lies the risk, but so often he's been par or better or perhaps a shot worse. That'll do.

Spaun to beat Lower and Silverman (1734)

These three have all played some decent golf over the past few months but Ben Silverman was disappointing in the Sony Open, then finished way down the field in the AmEx. Golf isn't always that simple but if you're shooting 72-72-74 around PGA West, it's unlikely you'll turn up at Torrey Pines and achieve much at all.

Silverman has made the cut on all three previous starts but always after a good first round at the North Course. That he's finished 67th, 62nd and 56th tells you that the South Course has his number and, with a different draw this time, he may well have a mountain to climb come Thursday's second round.

Justin Lower, with three top-fives in his last five starts, isn't so easy to oppose. However, all three came either on short courses or under low-scoring conditions and here, at Torrey Pines, he's massively up against it. He made the cut on the number last year but had missed it on both previous visits and while he could shoot something respectable given the state of his game, anything better seems unlikely.

JJ SPAUN on the other hand not only also arrives at the top of his game, but has a previous top-10 finish here. The Californian has broken par at the South Course eight times previously and while not so good in his last two visits, his form lately suggests he ought to play well. He's a better ball-striker than Lower so again, the South is the course to target.