It's a Wednesday start for the Farmers Insurance Open, something to do with the gridiron according to my spies in the United States, and whether that's good news or bad for Jon Rahm is open to debate.
Rahm's form figures read 1-4-1-8-1-1, which means he's halfway to the phone number for 90s staple Live And Kicking, and you don't need me, Trevor nor Simon to tell you that his prospects here at Torrey Pines are outstanding.
This is the golf course upon which Rahm eagled the final hole to win his first professional title, and the one upon which he birdied the final two holes to win his first major. It's where he proposed to his wife. It's a home away from home; the place where he's most at ease.
Rahm is 4/1 to follow up Sunday's narrow victory in another event he'd won before, the clip from 6/1 justifiable by field strength alone never mind the fact he won again, and there are either form (Justin Thomas), fitness (Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris) or psychological (Collin Morikawa) concerns next to the names of all bar a couple of his biggest threats on paper.
Many will consider an each-way double with Rory McIlroy something of a bet to nothing this week, but 20/1 about two golfers winning is never likely to appeal and I'll be taking both of them on.
As far as Rahm goes, he seldom plays the week after a win and when he did that here in 2018, he faded from halfway favouritism to by far his worst finishing position yet in La Jolla. It's not much, but it is enough to suggest that turning out so quickly might be the thing that catches him out after a tighter-than-expected tussle in the AmEx.
Tony Finau is the biggest threat but priced accordingly and the one I wanted to be on was Max Homa, but with his price contracting all the time I've narrowly come down on the side of JASON DAY.
Homa of course brings all the recent winning form, including three of his last six starts in his home state of California, but Day's course credentials are impeccable and the timing of this event just looks perfect for him.
The Australian chose to play the AmEx last week purely to get sharpened up for Torrey Pines, where he won in 2015 and 2018 and has also been second, third and fifth as a professional, having collected plenty of positive experiences here as an amateur.
That he could contend on his way to third place as recently as last year, when he'd gone almost than six months without a top-20 finish, tells you everything you need to know about how well suited he is to this particular challenge and it's worth saying that this year's field is a good deal weaker.
I've mentioned already how advantageous big-hitting is here, but to spell it out more starkly I think this is pound-for-pound the best tournament of the year for the longest drivers on the PGA Tour.
We saw evidence of that when Luke List joined Day, Rahm, Justin Rose and Bubba Watson on the roll-of-honour in an event long dominated by Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson before that, and you'll often find bigger hitters among the also-rans.
For the most part that's down to the sheer length of the South Course, but it's also because its fairways are hard to hit at just about any distance. That means a lot of shots played from the rough, where those with higher swing speeds and shorter irons are able to throw their approaches high into the air and hold what are small, firm targets.
Never are things as straightforward as fag-paper analysis like that can suggest, and it's worth saying that there are only one or two shorter hitters priced at less than 100/1 anyway, but those with an extra 10 yards have got ideal conditions to put that to use – and Pendrith is one such player, among the longest around in fact.
McNealy will probably fall into the frustrating category if he doesn't crack the top five again soon, but he's twice been runner-up in his home state and, having played well in each of his last six starts, is primed to extend that run.
Another big-hitter who firmly ranks among the best putters on the PGA Tour, his game is similar to that of Day when he was dominating here, and McNealy himself has finished 15th, 29th and 30th from four appearances to date, including when producing one of the best weekends in the field back in 2020.
He comes into this on the back of a low-key effort in the AmEx, but he's a similar price in a markedly weaker field as a result and I do think this tougher test will suit a player who almost won the Phoenix Open (no shootout despite appearances) and went so well at Muirfield Village and in the Valspar Championship.
Theegala won the Junior World Championship here in 2004, 2006 and 2008 (yes, these are form lines from when he was a small child) and was inside the top three in 2009, 2012 and 2015, experiences which surely helped in some small way as he contended here on his Farmers debut, sitting sixth at halfway after rounds of 67 and 68.
Woodland has made my staking plan for this event a few times and so far without quite delivering, but he's shown bags of promise and especially so at the South Course, where he's been among the top six scorers on three separate occasions.
No wonder Woodland has spoken about how comfortable he feels at one of the longest and most difficult courses they play so it looks an obvious place for him to win for the first time since the 2019 US Open, a triumph which of course came along the coast at Pebble Beach.
A missed cut at the Sony Open appears to have put everyone off but he did shoot a second-round 65 there, doing everything well, and I can happily put his poor opener down to the fact it was his first round since Houston in November, where he finished ninth on another municipal made for big-hitters.
Another with plenty of Torrey Pines experience, Davis was in fact the best player in the field from tee-to-green here in 2021, only to produce one of the worst putting displays of his career to finish mid-pack.
All told he's now made five cuts in five appearances at the PGA Tour event he knows best, one where he's carded a round of 65 at the North Course and produced sub-70 rounds at the South, and this is plainly one of the best opportunities on the calendar for the talented Aussie.
It's markedly easier than last week, where he was a good bit shorter to see off a field which featured Scottie Scheffler, Tom Kim and Sam Burns, and while disappointing in an event he likes, it generally pays not to place too much stock in performances in multi-course pro-ams.
Davis started the year as a player I had very high hopes for and having flushed his way through the Sony Open two weeks ago, one quiet week in the desert might serve as the perfect rope-a-dope.
Posted at 1800 GMT on 23/01/23
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