Among the myriad factors which led Jon Rahm to his first major championship last summer was the frustration he felt at being denied victory in the Memorial Tournament a fortnight earlier. The Spaniard's response to that setback was one of a confident and content golfer who knew that at Torrey Pines, scene of his spectacular PGA Tour breakthrough in 2017, he would have the chance to put things right.
It took mistakes from all his closest pursuers, with Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa all making back-nine double-bogeys, and Bryson adding a quadruple for good measure. It took favours too from Louis Oosthuizen and Brooks Koepka, both stumbling later on. But it was Rahm's genius, his sense of timing, which ultimately ended the argument. It's something we've seen from him since that hole-out eagle to capture this title.
Key to the South Course is usually experience, disruptors like Rahm aside, and power is certainly a major weapon, too. Those who've got by without it are adept at doing so, like Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman and Brandt Snedeker. Generally speaking, they've been pursued by some of the longest hitters on the circuit, and those like Keegan Bradley who send their balls into orbit and can drop them down softly onto these small, tricky greens.
Above all else this is a hard place to get off the mark, Rahm once more the outlier, and it's a hard place to come if you're still learning on the job. It's that which puts me off players like Maverick McNealy and Mito Pereira, and it's hard to see course specialist Luke List finally forcing open the door given the questions he'd have to answer on Sunday in order to do so.
Finau might've disappointed here behind Rahm in the US Open, but his Farmers record is exemplary. He's played in this tournament seven times, and his worst finish is 24th place on debut. Since then he's hit the frame in four of his six appearances, confirming that Torrey Pines is a perfect fit.
"Yeah, the South sets up nicely for me with my length," he said a couple of years ago. "I think length is a big advantage on the South specifically, so I've been able to put some good rounds together there. You know, it looks pretty good to me. A lot of the holes you can hit a fade and I'm a fader of the ball, I like hitting the fade off the tee."
That comment around shot-shape is echoed by Gary Woodland, another with an excellent track record here, and might also help explain why Rahm has been comfortable from day one. Whatever the truth of it, Finau is second to the Spaniard in scoring average, with a host of Torrey Pines winners stacked up in behind, and this is certainly a tournament he should have eyes on winning.
Indeed Finau is about as obvious an each-way bet as they come, yet I don't think the price reflects his chance. Around this place, with Dustin Johnson back from a long break and Bryson DeChambeau with plenty to prove currently, and with Hideki Matsuyama having relied on a hot putter in the Sony Open, I see him as the biggest danger to the big three.
That trio is completed by Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele, and it's the latter who appeals most of the two. Thomas played well enough here in his rookie season but relied on his putter both then and during last summer's US Open, when he wasn't a factor. He's generally struggled a little out on the west coast and despite some electric play over the final three rounds at Kapalua, it may be best to wait for the anticipated spring fireworks.
Schauffele though has every chance, having shaken off the hoodoo when runner-up to Reed, and then tied for seventh in the US Open. This is his hometown event, he shed the rust nicely in Hawaii, and he knows this could be his best chance for a while as he'll be flying to Saudi Arabia, straight back to Phoenix, and could be running on empty by the time Riviera comes around.
He would've made the staking plan at 20/1 but at twice that price I'll side with MARC LEISHMAN, who continued his resurgence with a solid effort at the Sony Open last time.
Leishman was all-the-rage there, but on the basis of one unspectacular performance is now twice the price. That reflects the strength of field to a large degree, but he was right up alongside Matsuyama, who is now half the price because he won that tournament and Leishman did not.
I'll gladly take the Matsuyama putting heroics and run but he wasn't at his brilliant best from tee-to-green in Hawaii. Ultimately, at the course where Leishman was a brilliant winner two years ago, he ought to be closer to Matsuyama in the market and the same is true versus the likes of Sungjae Im and Sam Burns, for all I admire both greatly.
Not only has the Aussie won here, but he was runner-up in 2010 and 2014, finished ninth in 2011, eighth in 2018, 20th when not taking advantage of the North Course in 2017, and put up a solid title defence last year when 18th.
Scheffler is obviously at the top of everyone's list in terms of potential breakthrough winners this year and after finishing seventh here in the US Open, perhaps Torrey Pines is a good fit. He started slowly in that event to lie 41st after round one, but shot 69-70 to climb to 10th and then sixth, before seeing it through on a difficult Sunday.
It's not usually the place you'd expect someone to get off the mark, but Scheffler is no ordinary maiden, having played in last year's Ryder Cup and contended in a couple of majors, as well as reaching the final of the WGC Match Play. And while perhaps best known among casual fans for his 59 at TPC Boston, increasingly it looks likely that his breakthrough could come under a far more challenging set of circumstances.
That of course isn't worth a lot, but Andrew Buckle won it in 1999 and the one time he got to play Torrey Pines as a professional, he finished fourth. Day won it, Woods and Mickelson both won it, and more recently the likes of Wyndham Clark, Adam Svensson and Beau Hossler have built on positive experiences as amateurs to play really well in this event.
Bramlett by the way was runner-up to Frittelli but it's the proven PGA Tour winner I would rather chance, largely because over the last two years he's added two things to his game: distance, and an ability to step up and perform under difficult conditions in world-class fields.
Another big hitter, Davis has dialled in his driver again recently and it helped him to an excellent 10th place on his debut in the Tournament of Champions, before a rock-solid 27th at the Sony Open where that power of his can only get you so far.
Here, and particularly at the South Course, it's a big weapon and one which helped him lead the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green in last year's edition, eventually settling for 32nd place having given the best part of six strokes away with the putter.
Wolff was 21st on his debut in this event, shooting weekend rounds of 71-69 at the South Course, and after withdrawing during a difficult period last January, returned in June to finish 15th in the US Open. That was a mammoth effort in the circumstances as the youngster had taken time off following the Masters, prior to which he'd been in terrible form.
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