Comparing Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm is keeping twitter busy at the moment and as these two Europeans fight for the right to be considered the best golfer in the sport, each heads back to where it all began in a happy coincidence of the calendar.
While Rahm is at Torrey Pines, McIlroy returns to where he scrambled over the line for his first professional title almost a decade earlier in the Dubai Desert Classic. Here, aged just 19, McIlroy bogeyed holes 15, 16 and 17 but had just enough in hand to beat some of the best around and break into the top 20. Since the end of 2009, he's never left it.
Nor has he left the leaderboard here in the Dubai Desert Classic, except for the odd year where he's chosen not to play. Dating back to that win, he's put together a run of nine top-10 finishes, winning the title again in 2015. He's been the halfway leader in six of these nine renewals. Perhaps even more astonishingly, he lost out to Haotong Li when odds-on in 2018, and again on his return last year.
That was at the hands of Viktor Hovland, who picked up four strokes in three holes to underline what this risk-reward course is all about. Those opportunities are in part why McIlroy loves it, though that love has been tested of late. To be frank, he really should've won on one if not both of his last two visits, which would make what's a deeply impressive course record look borderline frightening.
As it is, his occasional fallibility makes odds of 3/1 and change look short enough. That's the sort of price at which he triumphed seven years ago but at the time he was almost bulletproof and, for all that I am among his biggest fans, you always feel like he'll give you a chance.
The other point of note is that never before has Dubai been his first appearance of the year, which have instead come in Abu Dhabi for the most part. That's a tournament he's somehow yet to win, often denied by the sort of mental lapse you wouldn't expect were he razor-sharp. With reports of new wedges in the bag and conceding a run to all of his chief rivals, he simply has to be taken on despite the obvious chance he wins and wins well.
Another reason McIlroy thrives at the Majlis Course is that this modern par 72 demands quality driving, as you'll see in a roll-of-honour which also includes Sergio Garcia, Paul Casey and Stephen Gallacher. That club can unlock all four par-fives but also the second and 17th holes, each of them reachable. If you're able to turn it from right-to-left in the way that Rory loves to then all the better, particularly late on.
All of that helps make the case for TOMMY FLEETWOOD being a natural fit and he's just preferred to Tyrrell Hatton, on the basis that having been 12/1 each of two last week, Fleetwood has been eased out to as big as 18s.
That's because while Hatton cruised through the field on Sunday, never threatening to win but extending a run of DP World Tour top-10s to four, Fleetwood was never really at the races, but I'm happy to excuse that on the basis that in two visits to Yas Links, he's struggled badly off the tee.
Perhaps it just doesn't fit his eye whereas this course absolutely does, so much so that you could argue he should've gone close to winning at least twice during a stretch of top-20 finishes here which currently stands at five.
Fleetwood contended last year, entering the final round bang in the mix despite again having been quiet in Abu Dhabi a week earlier, and come the end of the tournament was the field leader in strokes-gained tee-to-green, just as he was in strokes-gained approach. At the time his unruly putter cost him a genuine shot and let's not forget his confidence was also pretty low.
In 2020 he ranked second in tee-to-green and in between these two he was bang in the mix at halfway, so he's dropped several hints that anything like a behaving putter – and it was better last week than when he won the Nedbank Challenge – would make him a massive player.
Wallace made 19 birdies in total, 18 of them from inside 15 feet, and ranked 13th with his tee shots and 18th in strokes-gained approach. It was a fine way to build on a Sunday singles win at the Hero Cup and, with Ryder Cup hopefuls Adrian Meronk, Antoine Rozner and Victor Perez all recent winners, you can be sure his determination not to be left behind is strong.
Second here in 2019, that too came after a good start to the year in Abu Dhabi and he played beautifully over the final three rounds. He'd hinted that the course suited when 15th at halfway on his first visit and was similarly positioned through 54 holes last year, only to struggle at a time when he was out of sorts generally.
Stenson used to live here in Dubai and Emirates Golf Club was his base for a long time, hence his 2007 victory in the event ranks as one of the most significant of his career. It's far from the only time he's played well here, either: top-10 finishes in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2016, 2017 and 2018 underline his fondness for the place.
Also a two-time winner over at Jumeirah, there's no doubt that a peak form Stenson is an ideal candidate to be serving it up to McIlroy, and while it's unlikely we get that, I do think he's playing at a level which deserves more respect.
As well as the winners these two far-apart courses share, the likes of Chris Paisley, Brandon Stone, Alex Levy, Richard Bland and Niklas Fasth help tie them together, and there's a similar rhythm just as there's a similar requirement to drive the ball well.
Valimaki has undeniably been in and out in that department since winning in Oman back in 2020. At his best, driver is a real weapon and one that helped power a strong end to that disjointed campaign, but since then along with his approach play it has at times held him back.
Mansell actually played well in Abu Dhabi, ranking 10th in strokes-gained off-the-tee and fifth with his approaches only to endure a rotten week on and around the greens, and I wonder if his off-season reconnaissance mission helped him to dial in his long-game on his first look at that course.
If so, we can take encouragement from the fact he also visited the Majlis Course in December and while it was Yas Links that he liked the look of, on paper this is a far more suitable layout as it's one where his trademark strong driving can really do damage.
We've had back-to-back French winners on the DP World Tour and Langasque's determination will only be intensified by that and the fact he carelessly failed to register on time for Abu Dhabi, meaning he was forced to sit and suffer as Perez leapt towards the top of the Ryder Cup standings.
Having narrowly missed out on Hero Cup selection, Langasque has endured a really frustrating time of things and that extends back to his breakthrough 2020 season, which he would've ended in Dubai at the DP World Tour Championship only to be forced to isolate with Covid-19.
It's not ideal on the one hand that he's conceding a sharpness edge to others here but he did play right up to Christmas and we are compensated by the price, plus his record on his seasonal return reads really well: 2-21-MC-20-34-16-12, including 20th when returning in this event and making a flying start.
All told, Langasque has three top-30s in four starts in the Dubai Desert Classic, hanging around close to the lead for the most part and driving the ball really well. He has correlating form at Eichenried (5th) and the Belfry (8th) and with the French flag flying high, I can't let this undoubted talent go unbacked at upwards of 100/1.
Posted at 1125 GMT on 24/01/23
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