In horse racing, it's often said that you don't run scared of one horse — a fact underlined at Champions Day, when Baaeed was beaten, and at the Breeders' Cup where Jackie's Warrior again fluffed his lines.

But what about two? Three? Four? How many of Europe's best golfers have to be in a field before it feels like one will surely win? Because at the DP World Tour Championship, we have just about all of them.

It's no wonder bookmakers rate it about a 6/4 chance that either Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm captures this title, which is worth as many Ryder Cup points as any event from now until next September. Rahm has won here twice in three tries and McIlroy, champion in 2012 and 2015 and almost always a threat in Dubai, is the best golfer in the world right now.

Then there's Matt Fitzpatrick, also twice a winner of this and runner-up when defending champion last year. Fitzpatrick's first victory at the Earth Course came at Tyrrell Hatton's expense and the latter has also looked in better touch lately. Shane Lowry won the last Rolex Series event and performed well at the CJ Cup behind McIlroy.

Viktor Hovland? Yes, him too. Hovland was third in 2020, his sole appearance to date. It came after he'd jetted in from Mexico having won his first big PGA Tour title just days before this event began, which explains the slow start that ultimately meant he had to settle for third. He's since won down the road at the Dubai Desert Classic for good measure.

That we have not yet reached someone you could reasonably call a DP World Tour regular, such as Ryan Fox, and that to get to him we still have to pass the man who beat him in South Africa, Tommy Fleetwood, tells you all you need to know about the final event of the DP World Tour season. By the end of it, players like Fox might feel like the back-up goalkeeper who plays in every round of the cup except the final, when the number one is back.

Here return numbers one, two, three, four, five, six and seven in European golf. The likely backbone of next year’s Ryder Cup side; the ones whose success means that they feature only in select DP World Tour events yet still have a vital say in the Race to Dubai. The ones who are just that bit better than the rest — or at least have been so far.

Rahm the pick of the favourites

Does the market have any of these fabulous players priced incorrectly? I doubt it, but there's a case to be made for Rahm at 11/2, especially as each-way backers won't lose if he's fully inside the top six. Rahm's strike-rate in non-major DP World Tour events is a staggering seven in 21 or one in three. You can throw in seven place payouts for good measure and those who've followed him blindly at this level are reaping the rewards.

My preference though is to do something I rarely do and look to the 'without' markets, which do vary from bookmaker to bookmaker. Sky Bet take out the big two or four, bet365 the big two or three depending on which market you choose, with Betfred and BoyleSports removing all of McIlroy, Rahm, Fitzpatrick and Hovland. Readers may of course be dictated to by the decisions of their preferred bookmaker.

By removing McIlroy and Rahm at the very least we open up some opportunities and I'd generally be content to do that, although throwing in Hovland and Fitzpatrick and accepting slightly shorter odds is no less appealing. It's very much about doing what you can with whatever accounts you have and the hope is the below analysis allows readers to find the way that suits them best.

Taking on the two at the very top of the betting is certainly not something that can be done with great confidence and the claims of Fitzpatrick and Hovland are also strong. In contrast, Hatton hasn't had the best of years and Fleetwood was exhausted before he teed off last week, so who knows what shape he'll be in. With Fox right in the mix for season-long honours for the first time, there's certainly scope to get all bar the truly elite players beaten here.

First on the list is ANTOINE ROZNER, who has done as asked and not quite peaked before arriving at an event I think is absolutely ideal for him.

Rozner hasn't quite shown that as yet, but his debut here in 2020 came days after his breakthrough win and was always going to be a big ask. Despite that he struck the ball in his customarily strong way and finished mid-pack on his first look at the Earth Course, despite carrying a cold putter.

A year later and he had to play here days after defending a title for the first time, something he of course hadn't been able to do even at Challenge Tour level having raced through that grade. Again, a mid-pack finish probably tells us little about his potential suitability to the course, but a couple of rounds of 68 offer some hope in that regard.

Certainly, it's a good fit on paper. Designed by Greg Norman, this particular layout at Jumeirah Golf Estates is long on the scorecard at 7,706 yards, and some of the best ball-strikers in the sport have have won here: Collin Morikawa, Rahm and McIlroy among them more recently, Henrik Stenson and Lee Westwood before.

Rozner has been among the best in Europe since the start of summer, twice leading the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green and ranking inside the top 20 on a number of other occasions. His iron play lately has been matched only by Eddie Pepperell and was red-hot in Portugal two starts ago, and it's fair to say that a good putting week there or in Switzerland and he'd likely have added a third DP World Tour title to his collection.