Ben Coley is back in flying form with three winners in five weeks plus a host of contenders. Get his take on the Czech Masters.
- Over the past month, Ben's previews have picked out winners at 28/1, 25/1 and 28/1 to take his annual profit beyond +150 points. Get his full tipping record here.
Golf betting tips: Czech Masters
2pts e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 35/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 40/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Julien Brun at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Victor Dubuisson at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Gavin Green at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
0.5pt e.w. Jake McLeod at 400/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
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Ian Poulter takes another much needed break from golf in this week's Czech Masters, one of a handful of so-called LIV rebels (not a team name, because it actually sounds like a team name and that won't do) taking part in a tournament which represents an upgrade on last week – at least in terms of field strength.
Laurie Canter and Hennie du Plessis are the others, unless they've now been deemed surplus to requirements of course, but the top of the market is rightly dominated by a man who could so easily have won this event three times in five, Thomas Pieters. It was here in 2015 that Pieters earned his first DP World Tour title, one he came within a whisker of defending, and it was here that he ended a three-year drought back in 2019.
That week, the awesome Belgian got the better of rookie Adri Arnaus and in 2015, his chief victim was Pelle Edberg. These three players tell you so much about what you need to do here at Albatross, and so do Johannes Veerman, Tapio Pulkkanen and Sean Crocker, last year's one-two-three, who also give the ball a mighty whack. Not only does this resort course invite players to do so regularly, but it seldom punishes them for straying off-line.
Such a formula calls to mind some of the easier editions of the Portugal Masters, with its trampled-down rough, and also the Saudi International. Pieters boasts an excellent record there, Arnaus could so easily have won this year's edition, and once more there's huge reward for those who can get after it off the tee. That suggests we might dodge a Poulter win and makes Victor Perez every inch the right second favourite.
Of the two, Pieters makes more appeal and as 7/1 shots go he's by no means a bad one. Some might tell you he's one of the sport's great underachievers and I certainly feel there's a lot more under the bonnet, but we're talking about a six-time winner whose 28th place in the Open last time out is high-class form for this grade, so if you can get six or seven places you might be on an each-way bet to nothing.
Then again, the Open was a month ago and we saw in last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship that returning under very different conditions can be difficult. My view is that Will Zalatoris benefited from reacquainting himself with the PGA Tour in the weeks prior to his breakthrough, and I'm not sure the market has paid any attention to Pieters' absence.
Would he have been 5/1 had he played four solid rounds last week? I doubt it. Could it be the thing that catches him out? Yes.
Two players made my list for this before research even began but with Matti Schmid electing to head to Korn Ferry Tour Finals instead, the headline vote goes to WILCO NIENABER.
The longest driver in this field, Nienaber is heading to arguably the most suitable course for him on the DP World Tour. Green Eagle in Germany is longer on the scorecard but with water everywhere and some par-fives occasionally beyond even his reach, Albatross seems to me to be the premiere destination for a big-hitter like him.
That's in contrast to last week, where a degree of accuracy was needed, so for Nienaber to finish 23rd goes down as highly encouraging. He said he didn't much like the multi-course format, nevertheless was delighted with an opening 66 which he called his best round in a while, adding that his ball-striking was 'really good'.
Subsequent rounds of 72, 71 and 69 at Galgorm Castle are fine by me and he really should improve a good deal for coming back to Albatross, where he was 14th at halfway before a chastening weekend on his sole visit in 2019. Back then, we were only just hearing about this freak athlete and what he might do, and he was very raw. The fact that he was closer to the lead here than anywhere else all year is another indication as to how suitable it is.
Rozner is selected for the simple reason that his long-game really is back now, and it seems to me to be a matter of time before he puts it all together and contends for what would be a third DP World Tour title.
The two he's won so far have come in contrasting conditions, from a shootout in Dubai to a windswept slog in Qatar, and while he's yet to play Albatross, note that he is a winner in Prague from his days on the Challenge Tour.
As we often find, a ho-hum set of form figures explain a price which undersells his ability, not just in winning terms but in overall skill level, and yet there's much more to it. He has simply putted to an abysmal standard on two of his last three starts, both on links greens, and whereas for Crocker that's normal, where Rozner is concerned there's plenty of good to go with the bad.
This event will therefore have been circled in the calendar for some time and while he doesn't have the power of my other selections, that doesn't mean to say he has nothing in common with past champions. In fact he reminds me quite a bit of Andrea Pavan: wild off the tee at times, but deadly thereafter when at his best.
We've seen that in bursts during a solid rookie campaign, Brun having contended in Abu Dhabi (Pieters first), at a big-hitters' course in South Africa (Arnaus second), and at the aforementioned Green Eagle when he played in the final group. Again, while that course is longer and harder, it does offer some correlation such as through Pulkkanen, who ought to have won this tournament when selected a year ago at 66/1.
Chances are you know the deal here: Dubuisson, a professional golfer whose Instagram page is made up exclusively of pictures taken while fishing at sea, is a law unto himself. He withdrew last time out despite by no means a disastrous start (three players shot worse scores and went on to finish in the top 10) and I'm only half joking when I say I'm more inclined to take the risk when the sea is so far away.
But there are positives, especially in the way he's hit the ball lately. His irons in particular were excellent for that one round in Wales, they'd been solid in the Hero Open and very good in the Cazoo Classic. His driving has improved, to the point that he might be close to the levels he showed when ranking third in Belgium. He's gained strokes around the greens five times in eight starts this year, and his putting has also been much better lately.
Like Brun, he has a big Rolex Series performance to his name from back in January but it's those more recent efforts which catch the eye, with finishes of 11th and 19th before something distracted him at Celtic Manor. There have just been enough hints that he's taking things seriously and that his game really is at the sort of levels required to contend in a field like this.
Twice the first-round leader here after rounds of 64, and in front at halfway on the first of three visits, Green loves Albatross. He said so himself in 2019, remarking that his power and high ball-flight were hugely beneficial, and it's therefore a great place to be visiting on the back of second place in a valuable Asian Tour event last week.
