If you are looking for an indication as to what the Corales Puntacana Championship is all about, then look to the favourites. Alex Smalley’s form figures coming here read MC-MC-MC. Keith Mitchell has faded after strong starts across the same three events, and both players last hit the frame in October.
Yet it’s hard to really argue with their positions at the front of this market, particularly with Ben Griffin a potential candidate to withdraw – he’s currently first alternate for the far more lucrative, far closer to home RBC Heritage, and if I were him I think I’d go there instead and cross my fingers.
Smalley boasts excellent course form and is a player I do like a lot. Mitchell was runner-up here back in 2018 and has all the ability in the world, only you do wonder if he’ll ever learn to be kinder to himself on the course. The former Honda Classic winner, best known for his snappy garb, talks himself out of things far too regularly and is hard to trust.
It’s easy to be snide about these opposite tournaments and there’s no doubt there’s a lack of obvious winning form on display, but two years ago Wyndham Clark played here and a few months later he was a major champion. Billy Horschel won this title in 2024, Matt Wallace before him, and Graeme McDowell is another past winner.
Like Olesen, Kim was tied for fifth after a strong final round in Texas, though a bogey at the closing par-five potentially cost him third place on his own.
He ranked seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green there and had been 13th in the same category on his prior start, with his approach play particularly good in both. The hope is that remains, and these wider fairways allow him to prove more tractable off the tee.
Two top-20s in Puerto Rico correlate really well with this as do finishes of eighth and 17th from two starts in the Mexico Open, but the clearest indication we could ever need comes via last year’s performance.
Kim shot 66 to open and 65 to close to finish sixth, having arrived with a broadly similar set of results to his name, and with that debut experience behind him better is possible.
Kim, a multiple winner worldwide, is narrowly preferred to Wallace, champion here in 2023.
Like Olesen, Wallace ended last year in sparkling form but he’s really struggled with the putter lately, was slightly disappointing in Puerto Rico, and his solid Texas Open came at a course we know he loves.
My preferred profile for this is a genuinely class act for the grade who has shown hints of form lately, and arguably no man fits that description better than EMILIANO GRILLO.
The Argentine boasts a gorgeous swing and has been a serious ball-striker ever since he arrived on the DP World Tour as a teenager, regularly pounding fairways and greens but so often coming unstuck with the putter.
His long-game class predictably earned him a PGA Tour card and he won on his first start as a member, before waiting almost eight years to double up – something he did at Colonial in dramatic fashion when we were on board.
Since then it’s been a generally lean period but there have been clear signs of improvement lately, with finishes of 22nd in the Valspar and 18th in the Texas Open sandwiching 47th in Houston, where a long, rain-softened course wasn’t for him.
In fact his promising run extends back further to The PLAYERS and his halfway positions across these four events read 11-9-19-6, a clear indication to my eye that he’s getting close to putting four rounds together.
“Yeah, definitely trending,” was his assessment in Texas last time. “I wouldn't call a big stretch of the season because I'm not in the majors or big events. For now it's just more tournaments, just more regular tournaments. But yeah, definitely trending, going the right direction. I'm putting well and starting to see some good signs.”
The drop in grade could be all it takes for that to happen but the course is a good one too, as he’s a fabulous iron player at his best. He’s also been sixth here back in 2021, while his record at the similar Puerto Rico Open is even better with second, third and 11th to his name there.
Strong in Mexico too, Grillo should be at ease in the Dominican Republic and when he’s dropped in grade in the past, he’s been dangerous. Take for example the Barracuda, where he’s contended on his last two of just three starts, and the Barbasol, where he was 10th on his sole appearance.
Like Olesen, he was at the Masters last year and hopefully watching that unfold helps him to extend two or three rounds’ worth of promise all the way through this winnable event.
Pierceson Coody was in the mix at halfway last year before fading to 18th and his form looks stronger this time. Granted, 41st on the Korn Ferry Tour was unspectacular but that came at a course which isn’t made for him and this should be far more suitable.
Steven Fisk meanwhile came good this time last year and has been playing nicely for a while now, his ball-striking particularly strong. Placed in Puerto Rico, where his putter potentially cost him the win, he’s clearly good enough to contend if that club behaves itself.
Also on the shortlist was Charley Hoffman, still a very good player for this grade even at 48. Hoffman placed last year, was 14th on debut and contended on another occasion so the course is a good fit.
Preference though is for ALEJANDRO TOSTI, a debutant who should really enjoy this test and has played so well in each of his last two starts.
Tosti hit the frame for us at a massive price in Houston, where he ranked second in strokes-gained tee-to-green, then he led that category for 12th place in the Texas Open, at a course where he’d struggled badly a year earlier.
Not only has his driver really come around of late, improving four starts running and back now at the levels we’d come to expect, but he’s never produced a period of such sustained, high-quality approach play, gaining in the region of 0.9 strokes per round from Sawgrass onwards.
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