The Charles Schwab Challenge is a tournament which suffers for its place in the schedule, but benefits for its place in the country. Anywhere but Texas and Jordan Spieth would surely not be here, given a wrist injury which almost forced him out of the PGA. Anywhere but Texas and Scottie Scheffler might also have taken the week off.
Perhaps Scheffler's motivations are wider than to win in his adopted home state. He knows he let this one slip last year, when he arrived frustrated following a bad draw and some bad play in the season's second major. This time around he'll have to overcome a different type of regret, having been a short price for the PGA Championship where yet again he put in a stunning tee-to-green display on his way to second place.
It's no exaggeration to suggest that Scheffler's two wins in 2023 could have been four or five or even six with a better putter. Seven is the number of times he's ranked inside the top five in strokes-gained tee-to-green, that's from 11 starts, not including his semi-final run at the Match Play. For the other three he's been ninth, 15th and 16th.
To lose out by two in the PGA will have stung, but most of all he'll feel he should've at least been the one asking serious questions of Brooks Koepka from the final pairing rather than from up ahead. And all this is without thinking further back to the Byron Nelson, here in Texas, for which he traded at even-money after just six holes of the tournament but lost out to Jason Day.
At no more than 9/2 you're betting on his putter behaving and against a downturn in his long-game. Both seem feasible and I would rather back him than a less-than-fully-fit Spieth, even here, just as I would Viktor Hovland, wounded in a different way and entitled to take things easy if he's unable to find top gear early on.
Don't let me stop you backing the favourite, in other words, but this might be an ideal opening for COLLIN MORIKAWA and he's considered the best bet from the front of the market.
Morikawa was never a factor beyond the first five holes of the PGA Championship, but I'm not all that surprised given the way the tournament unfolded. Yes, he's the type of talent who can overcome bias in favour of longer hitters, but a lights-out putting week was needed to do so at Harding Park and anything less places too much strain on his long-game.
Nevertheless, he drove it well, was rock-solid with his approaches and showed improvements in his short-game, all of which sets him up for Colonial Country Club, the type of course which does not place him at an immediate disadvantage in the way that Oak Hill most certainly did.
Anyone who shoots a closing 65 for a backdoor top-10 can be viewed in one of two ways: either that's a straightforwardly good performance upon which they can build, or they're flattered by a single round of golf.
There's definitely a risk we overvalue his seventh place at Oak Hill, but that's where the market comes into it. At three-figure prices, a player who has a win and two play-off defeats over the past 15 months and is firmly in the Ryder Cup reckoning certainly hasn't been treated with caution by the layers.
Bezuidenhout is a short, accurate player capable of deadly approach play and even better putting, but he's does need the latter part of his game to hold up if he's to compete at the highest level. It didn't, so he couldn't.
That's likely to change sooner rather than later and he showed last week that his approach play, which has been excellent on the PGA Tour for more than two months now, remains where he needs it to be. Bezuidenhout ranked fifth in round two having hit plenty of quality shots in round one, gaineing almost two strokes per round on average.
Having ranked 18th, 10th, 15th and 14th in that department over his previous four measured starts and on course for better still in the PGA Championship, Bezuidenhout is a good week on and around the greens from getting in the mix providing he has conditions in his favour.
We all know that since winning on his debut as a PGA Tour member he's yet to double his tally and it was painful viewing when presented with a good chance at the John Deere Classic last summer, yet he does look very likely to give his running and at the prices I can take on board the Sunday question marks.
My view is that he'd have been a fair bit shorter had he come here on the back of his pre-PGA form figures of 7-5-23, all powered by world-class approach play as well as some really impressive short-game work in the Heritage.
Reavie defied all logic to climb from 114th to 40th last week, playing some solid stuff over the final 54 holes after a poor start on a course which ought to have been too long for him. He did indeed struggle off the tee, but his approach play was typically solid and his putting was just as good.
Putter has been the big problem down the years but he's making plenty right now, to the point where you'd have to wonder whether he's ever been better on the greens. How long it continues is anyone's guess (mine for the record would be 'not much longer') but if it does for just another week then he's a live threat.
Whereas Reavie has given up a shot a day off the tee at two very long courses over his last two starts, here he can compete. He ranked 10th off the tee on his way to 27th last year, putting poorly, and has generally driven the ball well at Colonial down the years. At this golf course, 'well' can mean hitting it 280 yards down the middle of the fairway.
Yes, he's been up and down all year, largely the latter, but he was fourth at 40/1 in a stronger renewal this tournament 12 months ago, defying his lack of course experience and again confirming that we have the right conditions for a southern boy whose approach play is his biggest strength.
The world number 74 has won in Louisiana since, albeit in a pairs event, and we've had flashes of high-class individual play such as at Bay Hill, the Valspar and the Honda Classic. The flip side of course is that he arrives on the back of three cuts missed in succession.
However, the latest was a major in which his driving, approach play and putting were all above average. Before that, he shot five-under in a Byron Nelson shootout which wasn't quite enough. And before that, he was the same price he is now for a tournament headlined by Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and more elite golfers.
This one has just a small group of them and Riley's performance on debut, which saw him trade as favourite in round four, merits a place higher up the betting despite overarching form concerns. Anything larger than 66/1 just has to be taken and we'll swallow the shocker if it does arrive.
Posted at 1400 BST on 24/05/23
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