Ben Coley's red-hot run continued with a 33/1 winner and places at 80/1 and 125/1 last week. Get his five selections for the BMW PGA Championship.
- Ben's recent tips include a 200/1 winner, a 400/1 each-way return, and profits of almost 600pts for the year. Click here for his tipping record and
Golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship
3pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 33/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Thomas Pieters at 50/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 80/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Victor Perez at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
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Cameron Smith's Open Championship victory almost qualifies, because we all knew what was coming, but so far the awkward spectacle of a LIV golfer winning a non-LIV event isn't something we've had to face. This week, in the BMW PGA Championship, the prospect feels uncomfortably real. Six of the top 16 in the betting come from the dark side (it's my column so there!) and among them are players with either proven Wentworth form, or games suited to its demands.
The DP World Tour needed players to go into bat and it's therefore a fine time for Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm to return to its flagship event. McIlroy last played it in 2019, a top-10 finish despite an opening 76 demonstrating how much has to go wrong to keep him away from the leaders back on his home circuit. Rahm was runner-up that week and has won six of just 19 appearances in non-majors over here, proving hugely profitable to follow blind.
With both players priced below 10/1, US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick not far behind and course specialist Shane Lowry half the price he was in 2020, the very top of the market is dominated by European Ryder Cup stars who've played key parts in the biggest events this year. For now, and long may it remain, the real strength lies in those who have chosen a path which will lead back to the Ryder Cup in just over a year's time, rather than to a courtroom.
If reading all that leaves you weary then try actually typing it. I'd rather not have to. But this schism colours and threatens the sport as we know it, and it's impossible to escape in a way that's not been true on the PGA Tour. Its stance is clear – play LIV and you're out – but the DP World Tour has had to settle for lesser sanctions and for now has its hands tied. Rumour has it that a group of players have written a letter to the rebels to make clear they're not wanted. It's a sentiment which had already compelled Martin Kaymer to withdraw.
And it's partly why I can't bring myself to back any of them this week. Abraham Ancer has a nice profile for the course, and Bernd Wiesberger has fallen a heck of a long way in the betting versus the early months of the year. Laurie Canter was runner-up here on debut and Sam Horsfield has twice contended. All of them would have to make the shortlist, but a determined home team should win this particular battle.
The attack is spearheaded by McIlroy and Rahm, but I'm pleasantly surprised to be able to take 22/1 about VIKTOR HOVLAND and he looks a fantastic option for each-way punters.
When the Norwegian won the Dubai Desert Classic he did so from a point bigger than McIlroy yet now we're getting almost four-times the odds, a reflection of the fact he's undeniably been below his best for patches of the summer.
Still, he was right alongside McIlroy in the final group of the Open Championship, since which he's finished 20th, 35th and 15th across the three FedEx Cup Playoff events. It's solid form that looks stronger when viewed alongside that of all bar the front two and I like the fact his approach play has been good for four tournaments in five now, having slumped through June.
More will be needed from the driver, the one club which has dipped notably since he went 4-1-MC-4-2-9 in a blistering start to the year, but that's not too big of a concern. The West Course at Wentworth doesn't call for too many of them for starters, and the fact he hit the ball so well off the tee here last September offers hope that he might find something for a return to familiar surroundings when he does have to reach for it.
Although he could only manage 49th place on what was his second start in this event, Hovland can be excused: he'd flown directly in from the TOUR Championship, whereas this time he's had a fortnight off to prepare. He had been 11th on debut in 2019, just months into his professional career and again straight off a plane, at a time when he was yet to win.
Since then he's collected six titles and, as we so often see from PGA Tour members, he's been very dangerous when coming back to Europe. So far he's not quite managed Rahm's one-in-three return, but two wins in 10 DP World Tour starts as a pro tell us plenty, and both Dubai and the BMW International Open actually correlate well with Wentworth.
Of course, his continued issues when chipping and pitching are always a concern and he does have one or two questions to answer, but we're talking about a bona fide class act here and 22/1 to win in Europe seems to underestimate not just his potential, but the player he is today.
At his best this course would be dreamland for the youngster and having beaten Rory to the title in Dubai, he might just do it again in Surrey.
Form-wise, there's plenty to like. Fleetwood was fourth in the Scottish Open, improving as the week went on, and did something similar to cut through the field and take fourth in the Open a week later. OK, his comfort levels on links turf played their part but he was also 10th in the European Open and fifth in the US PGA, making it four top-10 finishes in six.
He also has a few things in common with several Wentworth champions, not least that he's English. Time and again we've seen players from the home team raise their games in what had been a rare chance to play in front of home fans, and while we've more UK events on the schedule now, players like Fleetwood are seldom able to take part in them.
More importantly, he's contended for this title before, and that's something almost every champion here has in common. Billy Horschel bagged a top-five in 2019, Tyrrell Hatton had been in the final group before his win and so had Danny Willett. Francesco Molinari had led at halfway no fewer than three times, Chris Wood was the 54-hole leader on debut, and even the youngest winner in its history, Matteo Manassero, had found time to lead through three rounds.
Pieters once made headlines when his mentor Nicolas Colsaerts said he didn't much care for Americans, around the time of his scintillating Ryder Cup debut. Although unwelcome at the time, there was a kernel of truth to the statement and Pieters seems happy to pursue a career which is Europe-based and against the grain.
It's going well, as he's now a six-time winner at this level together with his 2018 World Cup victory alongside Thomas Detry, and there's absolutely no doubt that his finest hour so far came this year when beating a world-class field to the title in Abu Dhabi.
But for some misfortune in Germany he'd have won again since and having made the cut in the last three majors, finishing 27th and 28th in the most recent two, he's reached a level of consistency which bodes well for the future. Barring mishaps, he really should be a key player for Europe in next year's Ryder Cup, where hopefully we'll see a reprisal of his partnership with McIlroy.
Byeong Hun An would be the only surprise of any note since Simon Khan in 2010 and it's very hard to see someone breaking their duck here as An did, or producing something way beyond that which they've produced before.
I'll list some of the names omitted for that reason later on but first, ROBERT MACINTYRE can confirm himself a big-game player by going close.
MacIntyre's major record now shows a perfect 10 cuts made from as many starts and perhaps it's not all that surprising that he's been a tad disappointing as a big fish in a small pond, instead out-running his odds in elite company such as when 15th at Riviera back in February.
Backing him at north of 50/1 when a few big names are in town therefore makes some sense and especially so after his best ball-striking display in memory last week, when he was 12th in Denmark having putted poorly. MacIntyre was still very much in the mix during the final round before four-putting the par-five fifth hole, but he rallied nicely enough in the end.
Perez was runner-up here in 2020 to further underline that Turkish link, having been part of the play-off there a year earlier. Last year's 49th was obviously a step backwards but it was solely down to an opening 76, which he followed with a 10-shot improvement to make the cut on the number.
The only other player who shot 75 or worse on day one but was still around to play the weekend was in fact Rozner so it was a huge effort which only really served to underline the fact that Wentworth is a good fit for one of the best ball-strikers on the DP World Tour.
Since then he's properly re-established himself and secured a second title courtesy of that thrilling and improbable Dutch Open success, and he could so easily have gone in again a week later. Yes, he's been quiet since, but three of his six subsequent starts have been at a very high level and in two of the last three he's been back driving the ball superbly.
That's what Perez does when he's at his best and we can completely overlook a missed cut in the Alps, where his record now reads MC-50-MC. It was just a few weeks after Switzerland that he won the Dunhill Links in 2019 and in 2021 he followed it with a top-20 finish in Italy, so Crans itself has proven to be a misleading guide to the overall state of his game.
The fact he hit the ball well there means I'm inclined to think he's not at all far away and with seven of his eight rounds here par or better, this former Ryder Cup hopeful can make a strong start to his bid to make the side in Italy.
Posted at 2005 BST on 05/09/22
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