Lucas Glover has thrown an almighty spanner in the Ryder Cup works with back-to-back victories as a discombobulating PGA Tour season hurtles towards its end end in a fittingly mad fashion.

Anyone who has seen the deeply endearing video of Glover explaining that playing in Rome is now his ambition would not for a second begrudge him a spot that many feel he now deserves, but blimey has he given Zach Johnson a headache.

Given the two get on well, and that Johnson can only admire Glover's achievements like the rest of us, I can't quite call it an unwelcome one. But no captain really wants controversy, and Johnson is now faced with heaps of it if he really does want to find a place for Justin Thomas – or even one or two others whose form isn't great – at the expense of the form man of the circuit.

If you're bored of Ryder Cup chat, apart from the fact I don't think we can be friends, I'm afraid you'll have to lump it or go and research the Rugby World Cup or something. Because right now, ahead of the USA's final qualifying event, it is the necessary, fascinating subplot; the final stop along a road to something meaningful.

I also think it's should be part of calculations for the BMW Championship.

Time and again, these August events on both tours in Ryder Cup years have been won by those on the outside looking in, like Thomas Pieters in 2016. Matt Wallace emulated him in Denmark two years later only to miss out. Sergio Garcia's Monday victory at the Wyndham in 2012 got him back on the Europe team, too.

For the United States, Hunter Mahan won the first FedEx Cup Playoffs event of 2014 and weeks later was awarded the final wildcard. In 2016, Patrick Reed arrived in New Jersey outside the cut-off, not sure of a pick given his, shall we say, profile. "Coming into the week, we said do what you can do and get the job done," he said after a typically gutsy win.

In 2018, Bryson DeChambeau won twice to earn late qualification, and three years later Tony Finau sealed his selection by doing just as Reed had done at the very same course, Liberty National. DeChambeau and Finau were outside the top 20 when their runs began, Reed was 14th, Mahan had been right down in 42nd.

The odd, non-Ryder Cup years throw up fewer of these wins for those just below the elite.

In 2013, Adam Scott (world number four) won the first before Henrik Stenson (world number 10) took over. In 2015, two went to Jason Day (world number three), with Rickie Fowler (world number nine) winning in-between. In 2017, Dustin Johnson (one) won the first and Justin Thomas (six) the second. In 2020, after the Ryder Cup had been postponed, Johnson (four) took turns with Jon Rahm (two).

The gauntlet has been laid at the feet of those seeking to make the side, perhaps still at Glover's expense, and with the TOUR Championship format in mind this may feel like the week that matters most. It is therefore appropriate that, in returning to Olympia Fields, the BMW Championship promises a serious test of golf and a worthy champion at the end of it.

It was during that 2020 run of alternating with Johnson that JON RAHM won so spectacularly here, holing from almost 70 feet to win a play-off between the pair, and he looks the man to beat.

Last week's decision to back Scottie Scheffler backfired, his long-game in fact keeping him just back of the halfway lead before a hopeless putting day took him out of it, but it's Rahm rather than Rory McIlroy who ought to have taken over at the head of the betting.

That's based not just on what happened here three years ago, when McIlroy's mind was elsewhere, but on the inherent nature of Olympia Fields. It is a long, unrelentingly difficult par 70, one many would describe as serving up a test akin to a typical US Open.

While not one who subscribes to the view that McIlroy can't handle tough conditions – it simply isn't true – I do believe his best US Open performance since he won it came about in part because of wider fairways, the greater freedom they provide, and a slightly lower winning total.

Third place in this event last year came after a lowly 57th in the FedEx St. Jude, a 14-stroke swing in his ball-striking the explanation, and in 2017 he followed 52nd with fifth in the US Open when a PGA Tour rookie. When he came to Olympia Fields in 2020 it was on the back of a negative ball-striking week, but a seven-stroke turnaround again shows that Southwind tells us nothing about his game.

It's fair to say he didn't perform spectacularly on his first try at this course but his overall form wasn't as solid as it is now (three top-10s all year versus eight this time), and having dropped below the Ryder Cup qualification line there might be a little extra incentive – even if we all know he's on that team regardless.

Perhaps the thing I like most is the fact that he owns the best US Open record in the field. To have six top-10s in seven starts and never have finished worse than 14th in the toughest major of them all confirms that Schauffele really ought to be suited to this test, as does the fact he's six-from-six in terms of cuts made at Riviera.

Bentgrass greens are certainly preferred to bermuda and in a field of just 50 players, 18/1 looks a rock-solid investment (bet365 currently offer that price and a bumper eight places, or 20/1 with five). Don't take anything less than 16s, mind you.

The Finau countdown

Siding with those who played well in the first Playoffs event is usually the best approach to the second, but I want to stress how different these two courses are in certain respects, chiefly in what they allow for off the tee. The top eight drivers at Olympia Fields in 2020 were all massive hitters and that club can do a lot of the work.

Cam Davis and Max Homa would be the obvious pair to concentrate on if hoping form does transfer, both theoretically more suited to this. Homa hadn't done anything at Southwind before and, if those Riviera comparisons do play out, then his victory there in 2020 could prove informative.

At close to twice the price though I can't ignore TONY FINAU, runner-up to Homa that year when seriously unfortunate not to win.

Finau arrives with some questions to answer and with his Ryder Cup place massively under threat, but I like that and he just looks overpriced for a player with five wins in two years, who should find this course much more to his liking.

Having gone off shorter for most of his major starts over the past couple of years, and been right up there at around the 16/1 mark for the strongest PGA Tour events early in the season, prices of 45/1 surely place a little too much stock in what's always been a volatile putting stroke.

Finau's putter wasn't the only problem last week, but he was last of 70 and it's worth noting that nobody hit the ball better in round one: he was fourth in strokes-gained off-the-tee, second in strokes-gained approach, and first in greens, the only player to hit 16 of them.