It's impossible to escape the fact that three renewals have been won by three outrageously good putters, Brendon Todd, Gay and Lucas Herbert, nor that others of a similar ilk have gone close – Clark, for instance, has at times been talked about as one of the best on the circuit. That's good news for the favourite, Denny McCarthy, who now holds that title and ought to be comfortable on greens which share the same name as the country where the tournament is held.
McCarthy actually arrives here off two poor putting displays in succession, his long-game having been solid, so if his chief strength returns then we should expect him to add to a fine course record which shows three cuts made in three, a best of fourth, and rounds of 63 and 65. He does look the right favourite and I'd caution those banking on JP Fitzgerald helping Thomas Detry to finally win that he actually employs a different caddie on the PGA Tour, McIlroy's former bagman only alongside for his European missions.
Ultimately these are two longstanding maidens so we shouldn't run scared of them. Indeed Seamus Power is not just the highest-ranked player here but the only one under 40/1 who has won at this level, so my eye was drawn to him and the other decorated player towards the front of the market, RUSSELL KNOX.
Knox was my headline tip at 50/1 last year in a stronger field headed by Matt Fitzpatrick, and in playing well on all three Bermuda starts he's ranked second, first and third for greens in regulation. Given that it was just one bad hole that saw him miss the cut in Vegas, and that he subsequently finished on the front foot at the ZOZO, I think he's probably playing better than when 12th here a year ago.
Throw in the effective dip in class and the long-time Florida resident has to be of interest again, with bermuda greens like these as likely as any to help him to a good putting week. And, to be fair to the Scotsman, he putted well on his first two starts of the new season, adequately at the Shriners, and over his last 24 rounds ranks in the top third among this field, his best display coming on similar greens at the Wyndham.
We can also throw in third place in the Puerto Rico Open, where he was bang in contention at 80/1. That event is a natural companion to this one and Wu threatened to win it despite having missed his first six cuts to begin the year.
In fact if you work backwards from that effort, Wu's only previous cut made during his rookie PGA Tour season came here in Bermuda, where he made a nice Saturday move with a five-under 66 but stalled on Sunday at a time when confidence was low. To perform as he did during a particularly difficult spell – he hadn't played well on the Korn Ferry Tour in months, either – suggests Port Royal is a nice fit, and so it should be given that he isn't the longest of hitters.
That consistency can be seen through the fact he didn't lose strokes in any department and this rock-solid driver has really started to thrive on the greens, ranking inside the top 30 last season and towards the top of the embryonic standings so far in the new one. Combined with the rest of his game, it should make him a threat in low-key events such as this.
Having won so early on in his PGA Tour career, Long has seldom played in such weak company because he hasn't had to, but he has gone close to winning the Mayakoba Classic which Gay and Todd have done in the past, and where 2021 Bermuda runner-up Danny Lee ought to have won in 2018, just as Knox might've in 2015.
Born and raised in Florida, where he still resides, Ryder has spent his entire golfing life putting on bermuda greens and coping with wind. It's one which didn't really begin until his late-teens so he's a slow burner, but I quite like how he's gone about scrapping his way to a solid PGA Tour career, exemplified by his FedEx Cup rankings: 109th, 109th, 102nd, 103rd and 114th.
Throughout these five seasons he's always been above-average with his approaches and his other main strength is putting, which is back on track now. He's gained strokes in each of the last two completed campaigns, ranks 24th early on in this one, and will be hoping to keep it up and match his personal best of 23rd back in 2019.
Also 13th on his debut in the Dominican Republic and a winner in Puerto Rico, Hadley is a class act in this kind of company and he hinted at that during summer, starting the Barbasol Championship as a 33/1 shot albeit failing to fire there before getting back on track thereafter.
Four top-10 finishes across his final eight starts demonstrate a player returning to his best and while the beginning of the new season saw that progress stall, he only missed his first two cuts narrowly before firing four under-par rounds, capped off by a Sunday 66, at the Shriners three weeks ago.
Hadley came home in 32 on Sunday in Las Vegas and that's despite missing several chances, including a five-footer at the last. It was a key sign that nothing much has changed since he was finishing fifth in the Travelers behind Schauffele, 10th in the John Deere behind JT Poston, 10th in the 3M Open behind Tony Finau, and eighth in the Wyndham behind Tom Kim.
Hopefully revitalised following a trip home to Darlington, Tarren should see this as an opportunity to build on some excellent golf from late-spring through to the end of the season. The fact he finished 112th in FedEx Cup points tells you everything, as exiting the Genesis Invitational in February he was unranked because he was still stuck on zero.
After stepping up to finish 30th in the Honda, Tarren then took fifth place in Puerto Rico and kicked on from there, bagging top-10s at the John Deere and the 3M Open and showing up well in the US Open beforehand. Come the end of the regular season he finished 20th and 27th to cement his place in the Playoffs, where a missed cut at Southwind is easily forgiven.
All of this puts him towards the top of the field in terms of strokes-gained since June and to a large degree this can be explained by putting improvements which were in evidence once more on the bermuda greens of Jackson two starts ago. Subsequently shooting 69-70 to miss the cut narrowly in Las Vegas, there's really nothing much to forgive in my eyes.
Granted, he was disqualified when set to miss the cut here last year, but remember his form was horrendous and would remain that way until February. He has improved enormously since then, threatening to win in better fields than this one and generally performing at a higher level than many of those in front of him in the betting.
Ninth place in the Bahamas plus that top-five in Puerto Rico are nice pointers and his blend of power and improved putting make this late bloomer a good fit if the course does play longer than usual. He's the riskiest of the six selections but there's plenty of mileage in prices of 50/1 and upwards.
Posted at 1150 BST on 25/10/22
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