For those of us with an unhealthy obsession with golf and its bare, bare margins, the Barbasol Championship, this co-sanctioned opposite event (I do love how meaningless these words would be to all bar you, dear reader), works as a really nice example.
In 2021, JT Poston was in total command of the tournament. Then his tee-shot on the par-five 15th went a foot out of bounds, a position from which he made double-bogey before losing a play-off to Seamus Power. Poston took a year to fully recover while Power kicked on to become a top-50 player in the world.
In 2022, Trey Mullinax also went out of bounds at the par-five 15th, also narrowly, but amid the calmer atmosphere of Thursday afternoon, he was able to recalibrate. Mullinax made eagle with his second ball to sign for a five. Then he went on to win the tournament by a single shot, before playing well as a late invitee to the Open the following week.
What a sport this is and what a spectacle we have back in Kentucky, where Keene Trace again awaits. Perhaps the best way to sum up the tournament is this: as I type a gamble is emerging on a player who, days ago, confessed to the world that he's suffering from the yips, and is believed to be on his way to Scotland.
That someone is Troy Merritt, who has produced two of the best tee-to-green displays of his life over the last fortnight, but putted poorly and settled for 17th each time. Champion here in 2018 and of the view that things are getting better, which they do seem to be, I don't mean to make light of his predicament nor talk down his chances were he to remain in the US, rather to illustrate how weak this field is.
The same point is supported by the fact that TAYLOR PENDRITH, 190th of 190 players in final-round scoring, looks a worthy favourite and overpriced at 18/1. We'll just have to worry about Sunday when it comes.
Pendrith's big-hitting game is ideal for this par 72 where the longest drivers can leave flick wedges on a couple of early par-fours, something he's demonstrated with finishes of 11th and 13th and a final-round scoring average of 67, six shots better than his figure for this season.
His first visit came when still a Korn Ferry Tour player and his second, last year, when returning from injury and making his first start for four months. As he'd demonstrated on debut, the Canadian dominated this course off the tee despite understandable rust in other departments.
Again, this is the product of extreme length which means greens are much closer and therefore easier to find. Cone ranks inside the top 10 in driving distance and top 15 in strokes-gained off the tee – remember last year's winner Mullinax is a big-hitter who said this course suits him because 'it's a lot of drivers'.
Cone went to college in Virginia, which borders Kentucky to the east, and won in Missouri, which neighbours it to the west, so conditions will be familiar to another rookie who has taken a while to find his feet at this level despite a consistent 2022 on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Champ's short-game was squarely to blame for that narrow failure and while that remains a risk, he putted nicely at the John Deere Classic where he was first in strokes-gained off the tee in rounds two and four.
Given his enigmatic profile it's no big surprise that the driver wasn't there in rounds one and three, but this course ought to suit him better and I like the fact that he's gained strokes with his approaches in five of his last six starts. Should he keep that going, one of his best weeks off the tee would likely see him in the mix.
He should at least find plenty of greens if he does do what we're asking of him with the driver and that in turn mitigates concerns around the weakest part of his game, chipping. Fellow big-hitter Mullinax came here with poor SG: around the green stats but it didn't matter, as nobody found more of them for the week. Champ could do the same.
As mentioned two starts ago what we know for sure is that Champ is a three-time PGA Tour champion who takes chances when they arrive. That makes him the most prolific winner in the field in terms of strike-rate, and a bet at 33/1 and upwards.
You may notice that I've stuck to PGA Tour members so far and that's with reason. The DP World Tour players are those who couldn't qualify for the Scottish Open, many of them unsure of their futures for next season and perhaps set to return to Qualifying School if things don't pick up soon.
This is a massive opportunity for them, the prize PGA Tour membership, and away from home that will work against most. We saw it last year with Matti Schmid, selected here at 125/1 and the 54-hole leader at an ideal course, only to struggle badly on Sunday and fall agonisingly short of landing the place money.
Hurly Long fared best in fourth, the only DP World Tour representative among the top seven, so in general it should pay not to expect too much from Europe, even without a host of in-form home players in this field.
I was going to give the benefit of the doubt to big-hitting Freddy Schott, another young German, but the opening 250/1 quotes were gobbled up and I can leave him alone now. Schott decided against a US college career, unlike both Schmid and Long, and I suspect despite his promise this will be a good learning experience and no more.
David Ravetto went to Texas Christian where he became a top-25 amateur and this strong driver might be ready to do himself justice having carded four nice rounds in Denmark. At the very least he'll be prepared for the humid conditions and he's already had a look at winning during his rookie campaign.
Both Niklas Moller and Marcus Helligkilde have the game for this as they showed last year but the latter is struggling badly on the greens and the former looks short in the betting, so the one I am going to chance is JOHANNES VEERMAN.
Another strong driver when at his best, Veerman emerged from a quiet spell with a final-round 64 for 10th place at HimmerLand and while not a lot to go on, he's shown in the past that he can take something like that and run with it.
At the start of this year, Veerman followed a surprise eighth place in Dubai with a top-20 at Al Hamra, while his previous top-10 finish came last summer and again he kept up the good work with 20th under less than ideal conditions in Sweden.
Statistically, McGreevy is about as close to a no-hoper as you'll find, with all aspects of his game having been poor for most of this season. He has just 107 FedEx Cup points and has earned less than $300,000, which on the PGA Tour means you've played terribly.
The positive, if it can be labelled as such, is that he'd been no better prior to his four standout performances in 2022. First he was runner-up in Puerto Rico, then 13th here having led at halfway, fifth at the Wyndham to keep his card, and eighth in Bermuda.
All of these are weak events perhaps with the exception of the Wyndham, which appears to correlate pretty nicely with this. Jim Herman has won both, Poston really should have, Billy Horschel might have, and there are a handful of others who've gone well at each course.
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