Tournaments at this time of year broadly fall into two categories from a betting perspective: those with what can seem an impenetrable group or an unbeatable individual at the top, and those which feel wide open, with any number of possible winners.
Some recent events have supported this idea, like Erik van Rooyen and Camilo Villegas winning on the PGA Tour, and Max Homa winning at Sun City. Then again, last week it was about even-money the big three in Dubai compared to 14/1 the field in the RSM Classic, yet it was on the PGA Tour that the favourite produced a record-breaking performance.
This is a good reminder of what can happen in golf, but the Australian PGA Championship looks likely to go to one of the favourites. All of the best Australian golfers are here, enjoying home advantage under conditions quite different to those we usually see on the main men's tours, and if they do fluff their lines there are a handful of overseas raiders with a pretty big class edge over most.
Perhaps there's even a chance that some of the Europeans, the likes of Adrian Meronk and Robert MacIntyre, might be running on fumes after exhausting seasons. Japan's Ryo Hisatsune was involved in the battle for PGA Tour cards last week, too, so the home contingent really do seem to have everything in their favour.
That applies to Cameron Smith in particular. Smith, from Brisbane, has made hay in what is his local event, winning it three times in his last four appearances, the margin of victory getting wider by the year. Having been second in Hong Kong a fortnight ago, beaten by a birdie-birdie finish, it's a little surprising that he's a point bigger than he was a year ago.
To an extent that reflects the improvements made by the next two in the betting, Min Woo Lee and CAM DAVIS, and I have to give the edge to the latter on this occasion.
Lee has been fourth on both starts here and played just fine in Dubai, where an opening double-bogey gave him a mountain to climb right out of the gate. My headline selection there, I'm not about to start picking holes in the profile of a hugely progressive youngster destined for the top of the sport.
The one quibble was with his approach play and that remains true, but under these very different conditions I suspect he'll improve markedly. The concern instead would be his preparation, as he said last year that he'd had an hour's sleep on the flight from Dubai, and with an early tee-time on Thursday there's a chance he could be caught napping, so to speak.
That's actually what happened to Davis last year, when he did as Lee did in Dubai and started his Australian PGA Championship with a double-bogey. From there he did well to break par on Thursday, but it wasn't until the weekend that he hit full stride, shooting 66-68 to climb to seventh. Nobody in the field scored better over the final two rounds.
It would be a shame were a player of his class to wind up without either of them and he's spoken recently about his desire to avoid that, and how his preparation might help.
"Normally I have played a quite a lot of golf leading up to them," Leishman said in an interview with .
"Obviously you never know how you are going to play but I have always tended to play my best golf when I have been fresh, coming off a little bit of a break.
"I will come off three weeks off with a little practice thrown in there. Hopefully this is my best Australian summer yet.
While he did struggle in two majors earlier this year, since making the jump in September he's produced form figures of 11-29-14-2-8, latterly in Hong Kong where he wasn't far behind Smith in a field which featured the likes of Patrick Reed, Harold Varner, Andy Ogletree and Peter Uihlein.
Fanling is a nice warm-up for a return to Australia, where he'd previously stormed home for second and has won a PGA of Australia event when still an amateur, and a closing 66 here last year came off the back of a difficult week in Japan where he'd missed the cut after a second-round 81.
Pineau isn't a superstar by any means but at 24 he's just completed a solid Challenge Tour season, bagging three top-10s and finishing just outside the top 45 cut-off for the Grand Final, his inconsistency still holding him back somewhat.
He'd won on that circuit in 2022, seemingly out of nowhere, and while hugely volatile he's also very capable on a going week. That much was in evidence this time last year when he shot rounds of 67-75-68-73 here, before going on to finish 10th in the Australian Open and then contend in Mauritius.
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