So brilliant a winner was Min Woo Lee in the Australian PGA, so poor was Cameron Smith, that the two have traded places at the top of the betting for this week's Australian Open.
While Lee was cooking up an imperious display to land his first big win back home, Smith was well below his best in all departments. Given his record in that event, played in his hometown, there was only one way his price could go. The question is whether 6/1 now represents value.
A year ago, Smith was a 5/2 shot following his convincing Aussie PGA triumph, and it's worth saying that he was runner-up in Hong Kong recently, beaten only by Ben Campbell's red-hot putter. Still the top-ranked player in the field and with form at both courses used this week, it wouldn't have taken much more to consider getting involved.
But as with last week, I find myself drawn to namesake CAM DAVIS, just a point shorter despite having played well, and the fact that while the change in location works against Smith in some way, for him it's all good news.
Davis won the Australian Amateur at these two courses, The Australian and The Lakes, and returned in 2017 to capture the Australian Open at the former. That was where it all began professionally, as he held off two PGA Tour players and announced himself to the world.
"It’s always so much fun coming back to a place where you’ve got that many good memories, defining moments in your career. This place really kick-started my whole professional career. I would say this is the place that helped me get on the PGA Tour basically," he said earlier this week, and he must be delighted with the way he prepared.
Davis went bogey-free over the final three rounds of the Australian PGA Championship, very much picking up where he left off on the PGA Tour. That's impressive anywhere, not least a course like Royal Queensland, and it's made more so by the fact he admits to having taken it pretty easy for a while before ramping up preparations.
Returning to the scene of two of the three most significant moments in his career brings with it certain pressures, but he's won this before and, playing in his home city of Sydney, he can do it again. He is the most obvious bet you'll find anywhere this week not named Viktor Hovland, but these Australian majors tend to be won by one of the favourites and he's by far the pick of them.
At risk of leaving readers worrying that they've clicked an old preview, I also find myself returning to MARC LEISHMAN, which I hadn't expected to do.
His record in the Australian PGA is, after all, far better than his record in the Australian Open, third place last week extending a run of top-25s which stretches back more than a decade now. He has always delivered.
By contrast he has just three top-25s in 12 appearances in this event, a modest return for a player of his calibre, and that would seem a pretty good reason to look beyond him.
MacIntyre showed up well in the main, carding four solid rounds and signing off with his best of the week, and he's been a consistently excellent scrambler since arriving on tour, ranking second, 27th and 17th over the past three seasons.
While there's not a lot of wind in the forecast it's rare these courses go without any kind of breeze and MacIntyre's short-game and general shot-making creativity should serve him really well both at The Lakes and The Australian.
Yes, he's a veteran who has probably done his winning now, but Kjeldsen can still compete granted suitable conditions. That means no real advantage to the power hitters, ideally some wind, and certainly an emphasis on short-game skills.
Those are all in play here and having been one of the best iron players on the DP World Tour for some months now, it wouldn't take a great deal of improvement on the greens for him to be contending as he did on shorter courses in Sweden and Switzerland earlier this year.
Yes, his form lately doesn't look great but a second-round 67 last week almost clawed him back inside the cut-line and at 300/1 and upwards, in an event where veterans can definitely compete, I can't resist taking a chance.
Posted at 1105 GMT on 28/11/23
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