The AT&T Byron Nelson will be a good test of just how impenetrable the Rahm-Scheffler axis has become (wait, are there degrees of impenetrability? Probably not, but do read on). Jon Rahm has already won a supposedly volatile shootout this year, one he'd complained about when things weren't going so well. Might Scottie Scheffler, whose worst finish so far in 2023 is 12th, do the same?
Scheffler has two wins to Rahm's four but consider this: he's the PGA Tour's bang-average putter right now, ranking 99th, gaining precisely nothing. To carry a club like that and miss no cuts in a dozen starts for the season, only once playing poorly, says everything about the phenomenal state of his long-game.
It's why he ought to be high on the shortlist for the PGA Championship but it's also why he shouldn't really interest anyone at 7/2 for the Nelson. Low-scoring events are often mischaracterised as glorified putting competitions, nevertheless I'm not sure you want to be going into battle with someone who is prone to a really quiet week on the greens.
Scheffler might have this title on his hit list being a Texas man so I'd worry less about focus wandering to Oak Hill, yet there's no denying that eve-of-major tournaments can produce the unexpected: Sung Kang and KH Lee in Dallas, Jim Herman and DA Points in Houston, JJ Spaun and Corey Conners (the first time) in San Antonio.
Of course, this has more to do with fields than focus, and we have to acknowledge things could look so very different at the Nelson. When Lee won the first PGA Tour event held here in 2021, Sam Burns was second. When he defended that title, second place went to Jordan Spieth, with Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele all close behind.
With Spieth now absent I'll be rolling the dice, because Tyrrell Hatton complained of feeling awful over the ball last week, Dallas-based Tom Kim has been putting poorly, and Jason Day has hit a bump on the road to recovery. Of the three it's Kim who I found most tempting having played well here last year and come a long way since, but Spieth's withdrawal and some Monday support has squeezed his price.
First up I'll take BRANDON WU to build on third place behind Rahm and Tony Finau last time out.
Wu was right in the mix again in Mexico, playing the first seven holes of the final round in five-under before his winning chance disappeared with three costly holes around the turn.
Still it was a further boost to the confidence of a youngster long considered capable of going all the way to the top of the game, even if I suspect his lack of firepower means slightly lesser targets than that might be wise.
Wu had earlier finished second to Justin Rose at Pebble Beach so it's been a good first half of the year and he hit a career-high world ranking following his latest performance, before missing the Wells Fargo which may not be a bad thing after being in the mix south of the border.
Returning now with his game rebuilt, Kim has six top-30s this year including seventh place at the Wells Fargo last week, his first foray into 'designated event' company. Most impressive was that he built success there on his driver, the very club which threatened to ruin his career.
Kim reflected on his performance and the event on twitter, having become one of the rising stars of the doomed social media website. He said: "My game is certainly trending in the correct direction. It’s amazing I’ve been working on the same few things for over a year and I prob will be working on the same principles my entire career."
Stallings had a fantastic 2022 campaign, reaching the TOUR Championship, but it took until one of the big rewards for doing so came around for him to find his game in 2023. That was at the Masters, where a top-30 finish came courtesy of a good week with the putter.
He'd shown some flashes in the Match Play, taking a red-hot Rory McIlroy down the 17th and signing off with a win against Denny McCarthy, and making the cut at Harbour Town is a surefire sign things are on the up as he has an utterly abysmal record at that quirky course.
I can forgive him a mediocre effort in the Zurich Classic alongside an out-of-form partner and if we do take the view that his game has turned a corner, which is what he said after a good start to the Heritage, then we've a quality operator with a really strong course record.
Stallings' putter powered third place on debut before he finished 25th last year, this time his long-game improving, and his game had been very quiet prior to each of these. That is again the case except there might just be a bit more positivity hidden beneath the surface, so I'll take him as the course angle at 66s and bigger.
I really can't recommend anyone at under 50/1 as all of them are unconvincing to my eye. Perhaps Seamus Power will build on an improved display in Charlotte, especially after some fellow Ryder Cup hopefuls impressed in Italy, while Taylor Montgomery could feasibly blast and putt his way to a breakthrough which looked on the cards earlier this year.
My view is that we ought to take the chance to get the big names beaten just as was the case in the Honda Classic, where ERIC COLE came within a whisker of landing a 175/1 winner.
Cole's performance during that final round was superb, one slightly heavy-handed chip shot and then an unfortunate bounce followed by a lip-out costing him in the end, and none of us who watched it were surprised to see him stick around in Mexico a couple of starts back for another top-10 finish.
Missed cuts either side might put some off but he played very well in the Zurich, where he was badly hamstrung by friend and partner Sam Saunders, while last week at Quail Hollow he missed the cut by two despite putting poorly on a course I wouldn't have down as ideal.
Cole's reliance on a stock draw can be a real weapon when things are going well but also means he can struggle off the tee at times, as we saw when he failed to build on a strong start when selected in Texas prior to the Masters. However, these wide fairways ought to help and the rest of his game is excellent, as he's 53rd in strokes-gained approach, 22nd in putting, and solid around the green.
In the mix here in Texas last month just as he had been on the Korn Ferry Tour, I'm very happy to rely on his strongest club turning up again and if it does, he's capable of getting involved once more. Hopefully those Dallas winds, which are forecast for the first three days, prove another small boost to his chances.
Having made Wyndham Clark my player to follow in 2023 it was of course frustrating not to be on for his first win at 66s, and if there's a player in here who I'd regret it would have to be Davis Riley. Selected last week in preference to someone like Clark, his putting display in the first round was as bad as you're ever likely to witness.
Besides that he played reasonably and with a top-10 finish on his course debut, this enormous talent made me think twice at 50/1. Seven times bitten, eighth time shy was ultimately the conclusion where he is concerned, while JJ Spaun's propensity to fail to build on a good start was also enough to dissuade me from putting up a player who won in Texas a week before the Masters last year.
I'll end a speculative staking plan with NATE LASHLEY, another who performed above expectations at Quail Hollow – which is exactly what happened prior to his runaway Rocket Mortgage Classic victory of 2019.
Back then, Lashley had finished 28th in the US Open, ranking sixth in strokes-gained approach. It was a confidence-boosting effort from which he flew over to Detroit and won by a distance under low-scoring conditions.
Might history repeat? Lashley was tied for first at halfway in the Wells Fargo, eventually finishing 27th, and ranked fourth in strokes-gained approach. It's certainly a similar platform, but what I like most is that his iron play has been good for most of the year and his putter might just be warming up.
As with a couple of my selections, extra space off the tee will help along with the fact that driver isn't likely to be decisive, and as for Craig Ranch form he closed with an eight-under 64 for 17th place last year, a week after he'd withdrawn from the Wells Fargo.
He will have to bounce back from a disappointing weekend which stemmed from the tee, but his last few drives were excellent and if he can make small improvements from what was ultimately an encouraging performance at a course where he had no prior good form, then he can contend at one where he does.
Posted at 0930 BST on 09/05/23
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